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FZAK80 PAFC 050454

ICEAFC



SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA

755 PM AKST WEDNESDAY 4 JANUARY 2012 



FORECAST VALID...MONDAY JANUARY 9 2012 



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...HIGH.



SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN RUSSIA. A

SERIES OF STRONG NORTH PACIFIC LOWS WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA

THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING SEA

FRIDAY AND SUNDAY. 



-ARCTIC OCEAN-

-BEAUFORT SEA-

-CHUKCHI SEA-

PKZ510-EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-

PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-

PKZ500-WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-

PKZ245-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-

PKZ240-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-

PKZ235-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-

PKZ230-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-

PKZ225-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-

PKZ220-WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-

PKZ215-KOTZEBUE SOUND-

PKZ210-DALL POINT TO WALES-

PKZ200-NORTON SOUND-

PKZ180-SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT-



ICE COVERED.



-BERING SEA-

PKZ414-BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-

PKZ185-ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-

PKZ165-PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-

PKZ160-BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN-





THE ICE EDGE LIES FROM PORT MOLLER TO 57.1N 159.6W TO 57.3N 163.6W TO

58.1N 168.6W TO 58.6N 169.4W 59.3N 174.2W TO 60.6N 178.3W TO 60.9N

176.1E TO 59.4N 169.4E THEN CONTINUES AROUND THE COAST OF KAMCHATKA. 



THE ICE EDGE EAST OF 170W IS 5 TO 7 TENTHS NEW AND YOUNG ICE IN

STRIPS. THE ICE EDGE WEST OF 170W IS 1 TO 3 TENTHS NEW ICE IN STRIPS.

 



2 TO 7 TENTHS NEW ICE LIES IN THE PROTECTED WATERS NEAR COLD BAY. 



FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY...EAST OF 165W...STRONG CHANGING WINDS WITH

THE LOW PASSAGE WILL CAUSE BRASH ICE CONDITIONS. THE ICE EDGE WILL

MOVE 20 TO 30 NM TO THE SOUTH. 



FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY...165W TO 175W...PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS 

WILL MOVE STRIPS OF ICE 15 TO 20 NM TO THE SOUTH. COLD TEMPERATURES

WILL ADD AN ADDITIONAL 10 TO 15 NM SOUTHERN ADVANCE TO THE ICE EDGE.

THE TOTAL ICE EDGE MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE SOUTH 25 TO 35 NM. 



FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY...WEST OF 175W...COLD NORTHERLY WINDS WILL

MOVE THE ICE EDGE TO THE SOUTH 15 TO 25 NM. 



PKZ141-KACHEMAK BAY-

PKZ140-COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY-

PKZ138-SHELIKOF STRAIT-

PKZ130-BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS-





COOK INLET ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...HIGH. 



SYNOPSIS FOR COOK INLET...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH

THURSDAY. A STRONG LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA THURSDAY

AND FRIDAY. A SECOND LOW WILL MOVE OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY

MONDAY. 



THE ICE EDGE LIES ACROSS THE INLET NEAR 59.9N.  THE EDGE IS 6 TO 8

TENTHS NEW AND YOUNG ICE IN STRIPS. 



5 TO 8 TENTHS NEW AND YOUNG ICE LIES AT THE END OF KACHEMAK BAY AND

AROUND THE HOMER SPIT. 



5 TO 9 TENTHS NEW AND YOUNG ICE OFTEN IN STRIPS LIES IN THE BAYS

ALONG THE WEST COAST SOUTH OF THE ICE EDGE AND SURROUNDS AUGUSTINE

ISLAND. 3 TO 5 TENTHS NEW ICE LIES ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF

SHELIKOF STRAIT EXTENDING 25 NM DOWN THE STRAIT.   



ICE IN COOK INLET MOVES GREATLY WITH THE TIDES. 



FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY THROUGH

SUNDAY WILL PUSH ICE 20 NM SOUTH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE INLET. COLD

TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE ICE THICKNESS AND CONCENTRATION IN

COOK INLET. FIRST YEAR THIN ICE WILL INCREASE IN ALL AREAS NORTH OF

60.1N 



KCOLE 2012



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