Expires:No;;303941
FXUS63 KABR 272123
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
323 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
VERY MILD AIR IS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN THE
50S AND 60S WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. COOLER 40S ARE BEING FELT
EAST OF THE JAMES. OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. GFS AND CANADIAN ARE A BIT MORE BULLISH
WITH QPF...BUT BELIEVE IT MAY BE A BIT TOO BULLISH. NAM IS DRIER
AS USUAL AND IS SCANT WITH ITS QPF. WILL STICK WITH THE 20 POPS AT
THIS TIME AND LET OVERNIGHT SHIFT EVALUATE FOR THE NEED OF
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OR NOT. 850MB TEMPS DROP BACK TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO ON SUNDAY...BEHIND THIS DEPARTING WAVE. THIS
AIR WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMS.
.LONG TERM...12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
MAIN FCST CHALLENGES FACING LONG TERM FORECAST DEAL WITH SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCIES AND RESULTANT TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. 
THE GFS/EC BEGIN THE LONG TERM IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT. 500HPA
LONG WAVE TROF HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA...WITH S/W INDUCED
RIDGING MOVING QUICKLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS. A GOOD WESTERLY SFC
FLOW AT THE SURFACE SHOULD ENSURE THAT TEMPS ARE AGAIN ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS TO START THE WEEK OFF ON MONDAY. THE WAA PATTERN
LASTS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
QUICKLY THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. THE HIGH FOR TUESDAY COULD BE
REACHED FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH STEADY/SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS
EXPERIENCED DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD STILL BE A DRY FROPA
THROUGH...AND HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FCST FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY
TIME FRAME.
MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP THOUGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST PERIOD. THE GFS REMAINS RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT...MOVING IT EAST QUICKLY WITH COLD
DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE
EC ACTUALLY DROPS A BACKDOOR 500HPA AND 700HPA TROF THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AND ITS A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH
THE COLD 850HPA...BEING ROUGHLY 2 TO 3 DEGREES C COLDER THAN THE
GFS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND GEFS/CANADIAN/CANADIAN ENSEMBLES
ALL LEAN TOWARD THE EC SOLN...SO HAVE GONE THAT WAS AS WELL. HAVE
LEFT IN SOME SLGHT CHC POPS FOR THE NRN TIER COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME FLURRIES PSBL WITH THE UPPER TROFS ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY. 
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED REMAINS COLD AND DRY AS THE EC THEN
ADVERTISES A 1038 HIGH DROPPING INTO THE NRN PLAINS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. 
&&
.AVIATION...
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVER THE TAF
LOCATIONS...RESULTING IN LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AFT 03Z. A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO STREAM OVER THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH
18Z SATURDAY. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY ALONG
WITH UNRESTRICTED VSBYS AT ALL LOCATIONS. 
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...HINTZ
AVIATION...HINTZ
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN