Expires:No;;279245 FXAK68 PAFC 270130 AFDAFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA 500 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2009 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... UPPER LEVELS...BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING SEA AND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA IS BEGINNING TO STEER A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF AND MAINLAND ALASKA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER BRISTOL BAY IS PIVOTING NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA. AT THE SURFACE...A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS MOVING NORTH. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIES OVER THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA. .MODEL DISCUSSION... MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT THERE DIFFERENCES ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW IN THE GULF. THE GFS MOVES THE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING WHILE THE NAM AND THE EC MODELS KEEPS IT OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SLOWER MOVING LOW APPEARS TO BE THE BETTER SOLUTION BECAUSE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL NOT PASS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. .SHORT TERM FORECAST... UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL SLOWLY SWING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF TONIGHT AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER WESTERN CANADA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING SEA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH INTO SIBERIA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE... SOUTH-CENTRAL AK...A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE OVER THE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG THE KENAI MOUNTAINS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. AREAS OF SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF AND DEEPEN TO 972 MB SATURDAY NIGHT. GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A BROAD TROUGH WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA FRIDAY. THE NEXT STORM MOVING ONTO THE GULF LATE SATURDAY WILL CREATE A NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BRING A COLD DRY AIRMASS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. BERING SEA...A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL SPREAD INTO THE REST OF THE AREA FRIDAY. A NEW STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SATURDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM FORECAST... THE LARGE STORM OVER THE GULF LATE SATURDAY WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE OTHER STORM OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN BERING LATE MONDAY. .AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING THOMPSON PASS MARINE...STORM 132 150 155 GALE 170 172 176 FIRE WEATHER...NONE. NM NOV 09