Expires:No;;619872 FXUS64 KBMX 241510 AFDBMX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 1010 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013 .UPDATE... MORNING UPDATE. && .DISCUSSION... A BAND OF FRONTAL STRATO-CUMULUS HAS WORKED ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THE CUMULUS FIELD IS SHRINKING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-59 DUE TO CLOUD COVER...BUT THESE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND ONCE THE CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES. 58/ROSE && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF DISCUSSION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY SCATTERED HIGH CIRRUS EXPECTED. THE ONLY IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...WHICH COULD GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES FOR MOST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. 56/GDG && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/ CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE DUE TO A BIT OF MIXING STILL OCCURRING IN SOME AREAS TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE CWA AND STRETCHES NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS FRONT IS POORLY DEFINED BUT SOME WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S GENERALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT AND IN THE 60S SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR. PW VALUES WILL BE NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MINIMUMS TODAY WITH VALUES AS LOW AS 0.25 INCHES. THEREFORE...EXPECT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL WARM UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA. FURTHER TO THE NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THESE FORECAST LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR RECORD LOWS AND FOR FURTHER INFORMATION SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. IF YOU ENJOY THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES PLEASE GET OUT AND ENJOY THEM BEFORE THE HEAT BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LATEST MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND. DUE TO THIS...MOST OF THE MCS/QLCS ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. WE COULD HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS THAT COULD MAKE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST A BIT TRICKY. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AND MODERATED TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR MEMORIAL DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AS A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DUE TO THE OVERALL SUBSIDENT PATTERN UNDER THE RIDGE. 05/MA && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GADSDEN 74 45 78 49 82 / 0 0 0 10 10 ANNISTON 75 48 80 51 83 / 0 0 0 10 10 BIRMINGHAM 76 49 81 54 85 / 0 0 0 10 10 TUSCALOOSA 80 50 82 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 10 CALERA 79 51 81 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 10 AUBURN 79 52 80 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 10 MONTGOMERY 83 52 84 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 10 TROY 84 50 83 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$