Expires:No;;217337
FXUS63 KJKL 242333
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
633 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
CONTINUES TO BE THE PASSAGE OF A COUPLE OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS TOMORROW AND THURSDAY. THE GFS...NAM12...AND CANADIAN ALL
AGREE THAT A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL ONLY HAVE MINIMAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AT
BEST...SO ONLY ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS IT PASSES BY
LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE SECOND WAVE WILL BRING A GOOD
SHOT OF COLD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM TOO WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BUT MORE
THAN THE WAVE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. AS A
RESULT...THERE REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS BEFORE. THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
VIRGINIA BORDER COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE HIGHEST
RIDGES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY A RAIN SNOW MIX THURSDAY EVENING.
OVERALL THERE WILL BE NO SNOW ACCUMULATION ANYWHERE ELSE.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TOWARD THE LATEST MAVMOS
NUMBERS...GOING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MOS TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION. OTHER THAN THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL
WITH FEW IF ANY FURTHER CHANGES NEEDED.
.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER NORTHWEST 
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH 
THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IF ANY 
FALLS LOOKS LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT...REMAIN ON THE 
LIGHT SIDE...AND BE MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. 
IT STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE 
FORM OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SOME RAPID COOLING ALONG THE 
RIDGETOPS COULD RESULT IN A FEW FLAKES OVERNIGHT. 
RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE FRIDAY WITH ANY PRECIPITATION MOVING OFF TO 
THE NORTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID 
AFTERNOON SUNDAY SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE 
RIDGE BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE 
AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. 
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING THIS 
NEXT SYSTEM WHICH IS KEEPING CONFIDENCE ON THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 
TUESDAY FORECAST AT A MINIMUM. GFS IS INDICATING WIDESPREAD 
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE BASE OF A VERY FAST MOVING TROUGH WHERE 
THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DEEPER AND SLOWER 
TROUGH THAT COULD SPLIT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE 
GREAT LAKES AND SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP 
THE FORECAST AS INHERITED...WITH CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS IN ALL 
PERIODS UNTIL A MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION APPEARS. 
&&
.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/...UPDATED
A LAYER OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS WERE STILL SPREAD ACROSS
ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY AT TAF ISSUANCE. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND THEN
WILL LOWER AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. I AM FAVORING THE
NAM FOR THE PRECIPITATION...AS IT IS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAIN MOVING
NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND IT WILL BE MORE SCATTERED ACROSS EASTERN KY.
A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE PASSING LOW WILL ALSO
CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10KTS SUSTAINED BY 13Z...WITH GUSTS
TO 20KTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS AS THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM....MACZKO
AVIATION...JJ