Expires:No;;257736
FXUS63 KDDC 260910
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
310 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD.
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE MAIN TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. FAIRLY
COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS WERE IN PLACE, WITH 0 C AT 850MB. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WAS EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS
AND FAIRLY DRY AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
WAS IN PLACE. NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE THROUGH TODAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES.
A LEE SFC TROUGH SHOULD START TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
WITH WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS, ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE, SHOULD HELP TEMPS BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. COOLER AIR
WILL HANG ON A BIT IN THE EAST, WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE UPPER
50S, WHILE THE WESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD SEE A BIT WARMER 850MB
TEMPS AND HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 60S. BY TONIGHT, THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES AND FAR WESTERN PLAINS.
THE SFC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
BRINGING A BIT OF MIXING. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW PLENTY OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING HOWEVER, AND WITH DRY DEWPOINTS CONTINUING, LOWS
WILL STILL DIP BELOW 32 F.  
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS STATES ON FRIDAY, WHILE
THE SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON BRINGING 850MB TEMPS INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS C.
WITH DOWNSLOPE AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, WE SHOULD MIX OUT CLOSE TO
DRY ADIABATIC, WHICH WOULD YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES EASTWARD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE PANHANDLES, AND THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL START TO MOVE EAST.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR, BUT SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY
NIGHT. 
DAYS 3-7...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING EXTENDED FORECAST. BOTH THE GFS AND 
ECMWF BRING A SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY INTO 
MONDAY.  THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL USHER IN 
COLDER AIR, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW TO OUR CWA.  LATE SATURDAY 
THE SNOW CHANCES WILL CREEP INTO MY EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES, THEN 
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE CWA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.  WILL STAY 
WITH THE MID 20 POPS NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30 POPS IN MY 
SOUTHEAST.  NOT TOO SURE IF THERE WILL ENOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS TO 
PRODUCE ANY ACCUMULATION, BUT ADDED 0.1 TO 0.3 SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN 
THE GRIDS.  ALSO, LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY, 
THINKING THERE WILL BE A RESIDUAL AFFECT FROM THE COLD, SNOWY 
SUNDAY.  THIS FITS WITH SURROUNDING ISC GRIDS BETTER AS WELL.  
THE WINDS COULD GET BREEZY TO WINDY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, 
IF THE CURRENT ECMWF IS CORRECT.  WE HAVE BREEZY GOING SO DID NOT 
ALTER SUNDAY'S WINDS AT THIS TIME.  TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY 7 
PERIOD, THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A STRONG ARCTIC PLUNGE COMING DOWN 
FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE PLAINS.  AS THAT COLD SYSTEM GETS 
CLOSER TO THE DAY 7 PERIOD, WE MAY NEED TO ALTER THE FORECAST.  THE 
MEX GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON THIS, BRINGING IN A MIN T OF 16 ON 
THURSDAY, DEC 3RD, WHICH IS 9 DEGREES BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 
NORM.   
&&
AVIATION...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH MID LEVEL CIGS THIS 
MORNING GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AFTER 15Z.  HIGH PRESSURE 
ALOFT CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER 
COLORADO WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS FROM 10 TO 15 
KNOTS BETWEEN 15Z AND 23Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  31  69  32 /   0   0   0   0 
GCK  62  29  68  31 /   0   0   0   0 
EHA  62  31  68  32 /   0   0   0   0 
LBL  63  29  70  32 /   0   0   0   0 
HYS  59  29  65  31 /   0   0   0   0 
P28  57  30  67  33 /   0   0   0   0 
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FN26/12/12