Expires:No;;272673 FXUS63 KDLH 262054 AFDDLH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 254 PM CST THU NOV 26 2009 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER OVERNIGHT...WITH SHORT TERM FOCUS ON APPROACHING WAVE/COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CWA STILL IN BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...NOW PUSHING EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH A WARM FRONT WELL WEST IN WESTERN/CENTRAL ND...AND LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN. PRES GRADIENT HAS BEEN WEAKENING...ESPECIALLY WEST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEEN FLATTENING HAS IT PUSHES TO THE EAST. CLOUD COVER HAS REMAINED PERSISTENT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY. CAA REGIME HAS KEPT TEMPS STEADY IN THE MID 20S NEAR KINL TO THE LOW 30S ACROSS NW WISC. ADDITIONALLY...MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD HAS BEEN STREAMING SOUTHWEST OVER THE TOP OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. LATEST WEBCAMS/SPOTTER REPORTS IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBELT INDICATE SNOW HAS ENDED OR TAPERED TO FLURRIES AT BEST...MIXED WITH SOME LIQUID PRECIP NEAR THE LAKE WHERE SURFACE TEMPS HOVERED NEAR FREEZING. WHILE 850 TEMPS HAVE BEEN FALLEN RESULTING IN INCREASING LAPSE RATES..RUC 850-700 RH PROG VALUES HAVE FALLEN BELOW THE 60% THRESHOLD FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...SO LITTLE ELSE IS EXPECTED. ROADS STILL LOOK FAIRLY WET...AND EXPECT SLUSH TO FREEZE ON SURFACES TONIGHT...INCLUDING HIGHWAY 2 FROM ASHLAND TO IRONWOOD...DUE TO TEMPERATURES FALLING WELL INTO THE 20S IN NW WISC TONIGHT. ONTO TONIGHT...RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA TONIGHT. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN CLEARING OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS TOO QUICKLY TODAY. LATEST MET GUIDANCE IS SOME 5-7 DEG COLDER THAN MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY IN THE BORDERLAND AND ALONG THE IRON RANGE. WE HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO MAV/LAMP GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME GIVEN EXPECTED SLOWER CLEARING OF CLOUDS AND INDICATIONS FROM LATEST MODEL RUNS STARTING TO KEEP LOW SOME LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND A BIT LONGER TONIGHT. WE DO EXPECT A WINDOW OF CLEARING/CLOUD BREAKS WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY FOR A SHORT TIME. EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL CLEARING IN THE NORTH AND WEST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE UNDER LIGHT WINDS. UPSTREAM LOW TEMPS UNDER THE RIDGE WERE IN THE MID TEENS. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST QUICKLY ON FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE DAKOTAS UNDER A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE. WAA REGIME WILL ENSUE. HI RES WRF SHOWS SOME WEAK ECHOES IN THE ARROWHEAD...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE DOWNSTAIRS TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH MID AND UPPER CLOUDS DUE TO WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE ALLOWING PROGRESSIVE WEAK VORT MAXES TO WORK THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPS WILL RECOVER FROM THURSDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS...EVEN SOME 40S IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA. FAIRLY QUIET FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA ARRIVES. A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY. THE BEST FORCING MOVES DUE EAST ALONG THE BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE SAGGING SOUTH AND EAST AND PUSHING OFF INTO NW WISC. AT THIS TIME...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION LOOK LIKE THE PRUDENT FCST FOR NOW...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION IN THE NE ARROWHEAD. ADDITIONALLY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO BE FAVORABLE ON THE SOUTH SHORE WITH GOOD CAA OVER THE LAKE LEADING TO DELTA T'S AROUND 13-15C AND 200/300 J/KG OF LAKE INDUCED CAPE. THERE COULD BE A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN THE SNOW BELT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN WINDS BECOME MOST FAVORABLE. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. IT WILL BE A COOL AND UNSETTLED START TO THIS TIME PERIOD...AS AN H5 TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. THERE IS QUITE A DISCREPANCY AMONGST THE MODELS BY MONDAY WITH ECMWF BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA. THE GFS BRINGS RETURN FLOW QUICKLY INTO THE AREA. HAVE USED A COMPROMISE SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE GEM AND ECMWF. BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...COLD ADVECTION AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME COMMONPLACE. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY COOL BUT CLOSER TO NORMAL TIME PERIOD. && .AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF THE CWA AT MIDDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS ARE NOW MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC IN TERMS OF CLEARING OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW RUNS. STILL THINK THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT BREAKS DEVELOPING IN SOME SPOTS...BUT OVERALL THINK MVFR WILL BE THE RULE THIS AFTERNOON. COULD BE SOME LOWERING OF CIG HEIGHTS AGAIN DURING THE EVENING...WITH LOW CLOUDS PROBABLY BREAKING UP A FAIR AMOUNT ON FRIDAY. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY MID CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING. && .POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 23 37 26 38 / 10 0 10 10 INL 17 37 24 34 / 0 10 10 10 BRD 23 43 26 41 / 0 0 10 10 HYR 20 40 21 42 / 0 0 10 10 ASX 24 40 23 43 / 10 0 10 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM: DONOFRIO LONG TERM/AVIATION: DAP