Expires:No;;277009
FXUS65 KLKN 262340
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
340 PM PST THU NOV 26 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...WILL GIVE
NEVADA MORE MORE MILD DAY ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WILL POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A DUSTING
IN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WARMING
A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. 
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE
TO AGREE ON A SLOWING...AND DRYING...TREND WITH FRIDAY'S COLD
FRONT. THE ENERGY...AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE...DIGS WELL SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU ON FRIDAY...WITH QPF
MAINLY BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME UPPER SUPPORT IS PROVIDED BY AN
80KT JET ON THE LEADING SIDE OF THE TROF. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...
WITH PW'S ON FRIDAY AROUND 0.40 INCHES IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY...
DIMINISHING TO 0.30 INCHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 18Z GFS HAS COME MORE IN
LINE WITH THE NAM'S LOWER QPF...THAT DOESN'T EVEN MAKE IT INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...WHICH REMAINS DRY FRIDAY
NIGHT. SATURDAY MAY SEE ISOLATED FLURRIES AS THE 100KT JET ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROF MOVES OVERHEAD. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL TOP OUT
NEAR 40 BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN.
HAVE MADE MAINLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FCST. GIVEN THE
MORE CONSERVATIVE 18Z RUNS...MAY HAVE TO CUT BACK EVEN FURTHER ON
QPF FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HUMBOLDT COUNTY MAY BE THE ONLY
RECIPIENT OF SIGNIFICANT QPF WITH THIS EVENT...AND MUCH OF THAT
WILL BE RAIN DUE TO THE LOWER VALLEYS. PRECIP MAY BARELY MAKE IT
TO ELKO AND THE RUBIES FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING. WILL SEE WHAT 
THE 00Z RUNS BRING. REA
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY AND COOL WEATHER 
PATTERN TO CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN 
CONTROL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DUE TO INCONSISTENCIES IN THE 12Z GFS 
RUN...USED THE ECMWF AS THE MODEL OF CHOICE.
LONGWAVE PATTERN ON MONDAY WILL HAVE 500H MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN CONTROL 
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE MID-WEST. THIS 
PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A PLEASANT DAY ON MONDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS 
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  BY TUESDAY MID-LEVEL RIDGING WEAKENS...AS A 
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH ACROSS IDAHO. CURRENTLY THIS FEATURE IS 
TO FAR EAST FOR ANY SENSIBLE WX...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FUTURE 
MODEL RUNS FOR WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE. LOOKS LIKE 
COLDER WEATHER AND PERSISTENT NW FLOW WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR 
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS REINFORCING 500MB VORT MAXES CARVE 
OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS.  ECMWF IS HINTING AT THE 
FIRST MAJOR POLAR OUTBREAK ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. SOME 
OF THIS COLD AIR COULD BLEED INTO THE NE PART OF THE CWA. IF THIS 
OCCURS TEMPS WILL RUN MUCH BELOW AVG ACROSS ELKO AND WHITE PINE 
COUNTY...BUT NEAR AVG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.    
&&    
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL
TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 
&&
$$
90/95/95