Expires:No;;243989
FXUS64 KHGX 252120
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
320 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE THE GOOD NEWS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
NOSE DOWN THROUGH TX ON THANKSGIVING THEN SHIFT EAST SETTING THE
STAGE FOR WEAK RETURN FLOW ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
THE COOL NIGHTS AND MILD FALL DAYS THROUGH FRIDAY THEN WARMING UP 
AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA. A S/W MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -RA THEN
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM AZ-ND WILL CRANK UP THE ONSHORE FLOW LATE
SATURDAY. THE TROUGH SWINGS EAST SUNDAY BUT LEAVES A CIRCULATION
DANGLING BACK OVER NM MONDAY MORNING. GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE AT THIS
POINT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A WET AFTERNOON GETTING STARTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND PEAKING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...AND AFTER AS VERY MOIST SW UPGLIDE FLOW PERSISTS INTO
TUESDAY THANKS IN LARGE PART TO THE VERY SLOW PROGRESSION EAST OF
THE UPPER LOW. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS IN THE OUT PERIODS WHICH
WILL MEAN MUCH COOLER TEMPS/CLOUDY/RAINY MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN DRYING OUT WEDNESDAY. IF THE ECMWF SHOULD PAN OUT
THE RAINS WILL END MONDAY AFTERNOON AND A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL
BE POISED TO DROP SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEK.
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND STRONG VEERING WIND PROFILE COINCIDES WITH
DIFFLUENCE SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST IN THE
CWA...POSSIBLY SEVERE BUT THIS FAR OUT IT WOULDN'T TAKE MUCH 
TO SWING THE SOLUTION EITHER WAY IN FAVOR OF SEVERE OR AGAINST.
STAY TUNED.
HAVE A SAFE AND HAPPY THANKSGIVING FROM YOUR LOCAL
HOUSTON/GALVESTON NWS OFFICE.
45
&&
.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTING TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS NEARSHORE
WATERS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE A BIT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN EARLY
THURSDAY AS REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH PUSHES ACROSS REGION. WE MAY
SEE SCEC 0-20 NM AND POSSIBLY SCA 20-60 NM REGION THURSDAY. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER
CWFA FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
USHERING RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATER IN 
THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASING LATER SUNDAY. MAY POSSIBLY SEE SCA CONDITIONS 
FOR COASTAL WATERS THEN. WE SHALL SEE. COLD FRONT INDICATED TO MOVE
ACROSS REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. STRONG OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL BE USHERED BY THIS FRONT. 37
&&
.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PLACEMENT ACROSS CWFA RESULTING IN A
NNE WIND FLOW MAINLY NEAR 10 KTS (LIGHTER FARTHER INLAND AND SLIGHTLY
STRONGER COAST). GRADIENT WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING BUT
REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN GRADIENT BY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS PICKING UP TO ABOUT 10-15 KTS FROM NNW. SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SOME CIRRUS THURSDAY. 37
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      38  67  42  67  49 /   0   0   0   0   0 
HOUSTON (IAH)              40  68  42  67  50 /   0   0   0   0   0 
GALVESTON (GLS)            52  64  52  66  58 /   0   0   0   0   0 
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP 
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO 
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45