Expires:No;;261190
FXUS64 KHUN 261111 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
510 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS/AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.AVIATION...COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL 
ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY AFTER 16Z AND CARRYING 
THROUGH 01Z FRI. ANY CEILINGS THOUGH LOOK TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE VFR 
LIMITS. SFC WINDS ARE ALSO XPCTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NW LATER THIS 
MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ANY CLOUD COVER 
SHOULD THEN CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH SFC WINDS DIMINISHING.
&&
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (THROUGH SATURDAY)...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PLUNGE 
A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING. 
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MIDDAY...GUSTING 20-25 MPH AT TIMES 
THIS AFTN. SUNSHINE WILL RULE MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE A BAND OF 
SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTN. 
QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS 
SUBSIDE. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR ALLOWING TEMPS TO 
FALL TO BTWN 29-34F ACROSS THE AREA. CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR 
AND EXPECTED SHORT DURATION OF POTENTIALLY FREEZING/SUB-FREEZING 
TEMPS...SEE NO NEED TO ISSUE FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT. THAT 
SAID...RESIDENTS WITH TENDER VEGETATION OR OUTDOOR PLANTS SENSITIVE 
TO THE COLD SHOULD BRING THEM INDOORS. 
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA 
TODAY WILL EXIT THE EAST COAST FRIDAY AS AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS 
THE SOUTHEAST REGION SATURDAY. LLVL WAA SATURDAY WILL WARM TEMPS 
ABOUT 10F DEG FROM FRIDAY...TO AROUND 60F. DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS 
WILL PREVAIL.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SPLIT FLOW WILL CONVERGE ACROSS THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS BY MONDAY AS NRN 
STREAM ENERGY TAPS INTO SUB-TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVING AHEAD 
OF CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA. MOISTURE 
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE WEST-TO-EAST SUNDAY BUT ANY ORGANIZED PRECIP 
SHOULD HOLD OFF. BETTER FORCING ALONG/AHEAD OF LOW LVL FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A STRONG /150+KT/ UPR JET CROSSING THE REGION 
WILL SUPPORT RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND 
CONTINUING INTO EARLY MONDAY. RAIN WILL QUICKLY END BEHIND THE COLD 
FRONT MONDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. DRY 
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. 
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA WILL BE THE NEXT WEATHER 
MAKER FOR THE AREA/REGION BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS 
TIME...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING/TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...TAKING THE PRIMARY SFC 
LOW NORTHEAST FROM THE WRN GULF ACROSS SRN AL/FL/GA BY WEDNESDAY. 
THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER INTERESTING AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 
MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER 
NEXT WEEK...GIVEN ITS TRACK AND STRENGTH. INCREASING POPS WEDNESDAY 
TO ACCOUNT FOR PRECIP THREAT. NADLER.83
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...09
DISCUSSION...83