Expires:No;;504433
FXUS62 KKEY 220218
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1018 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 80 DEGREES 
ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS THANKS TO A STEADY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND. 
MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE DETECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A STRAY 
THUNDERSTORM ON THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE MIDDLE KEYS...AS WELL 
AS THE OUTER WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE. SURFACE WISE...A WESTERN 
ATLANTIC RIDGE LIES ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF COAST 
REGION. ACROSS OUR MARINE DISTRICT...C-MAN STATION PLATFORM 
OBSERVATIONS SHOW EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. 
OTHERWISE...OUR EVENING SOUNDING REVEALS AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE 
(PWAT 1.62 INCHES) UP TO 700 MB BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING ABOVE. 
FURTHERMORE...NO STABLE LAYERS ARE EVIDENT UNTIL NEAR 500 MB...WHILE 
A DECOUPLED LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS OVERLAID BY A UNIDIRECTIONAL 
AND INTENSIFYING WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE 700 MB.  
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IN NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS 
EVENING...WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO 
SLOWLY FILTER DOWNWARD INTO THE LOWER LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 
HOURS. BUT UNTIL THEN...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LITTLE IF ANY 
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ALONG WITH SEVERAL BOUNDARIES EMANATING FROM 
THE LARGE NEIGHBORHOOD LAND MASSES WILL PROVIDE THE THREAT FOR 
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. HENCE...20 TO 30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES LOOK 
REASONABLE FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN. OUTSIDE OF BOTH POTENTIAL HEAVY 
DOWNPOURS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 
UPPER 70S UNDER MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. 
&&
.MARINE...
OUR EVENING SOUNDING INDICATES EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 12 AND 6 
KNOTS AT 1 AND 2 THOUSAND FEET RESPECTIVELY. WITH THE WESTERN 
ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDING INTO NORTH FLORIDA WEAKENING TOWARD 
MORNING...EXPECT THE TYPICAL...ALBEIT MINOR WIND SURGE THIS EVENING 
AND EARLY TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO 
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD ABATE SIGNIFICANTLY BY MORNING WITH THE 
SPLITTING OF THE RIDGE. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO OCCASIONALLY 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ON ALL KEYS 
COASTAL WATERS. 
&&
.AVIATION...
THROUGH 23/00Z...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS 
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE NEAR 
DAYBREAK. TOMORROW AFTERNOON...REVERSE CU LINES WILL BE SUPPORTED BY 
WESTERLY LOW TO MIDLEVEL FLOW AND AN UNCAPPED...AND UNSTABLE PROFILE 
THROUGHOUT THE LOW LEVELS...MID LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION SHOULD KEEP 
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP IN CHECK HOWEVER. MODERATE 
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IN A DRY FORECAST WITH OCCASIONAL NARROW 
CIGS DUE TO ISLAND CLOUD LINES.    
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...APA 
AVIATION/NOWCASTS............MSB
DATA ACQUISITION.............BWC
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST