Expires:No;;250098
FXUS62 KKEY 260224
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
924 PM EST WED NOV 25 2009
.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD ECHOES ON KBYX THROUGH THE BULK OF THIS SHIFT...WITH THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION ON THE LEADING EASTERN EDGE. THIS STRONGER
ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF OUR EASTERN MARINE
BOUNDARIES...WITH BREAKS IN THE MORE STRATI FORM SIGNATURES
APPROACHING THE LOWER KEYS. WINDS SHIFTED TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE INITIAL BRUNT OF SHOWERS EARLIER THIS EVENING...AND
ACCORDING TO KBYX VWP AND CUDJOE PROFILER THE WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BACKING MORE TO THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IN THE LOWEST LAYERS.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.
HAVE ALREADY SENT OUT A ZONE UPDATE TO ADJUST THE RAIN CHANCE DOWN
SLIGHTLY ALONG THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN OVERNIGHT. THE BEST UPPER
DIFFLUENT REGION HAS PASSED TO OUR EAST. BUT...ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
SURFACE PRESSURES CONTINUE TO DROP JUST TO THE WEST OF THE KEYS
ISLAND CHAIN...ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT REACHES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA. ALL SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS LOWER PRESSURE
PULLING DIRECTLY ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE. PREFER THE
ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH KEEPS A LIGHTER WIND FIELD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND EARLY ON THANKSGIVING MORNING. AND...ALTHOUGH I
CUT THE RAIN PROBABILITIES BACK...I KEPT A LIKELY MENTION OF SHOWERS THANKS
TO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE. ALSO...THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
BUT NOT ENOUGH TO REMOVE A SLIGHT MENTION.
.MARINE...
THE UPCOMING MARINE UPDATE WILL ALSO HAVE DECREASED SHOWER COVERAGE
ADVERTISED DUE TO THE REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE...BUT STILL KEPT AT
NUMEROUS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ALSO...THE WIND FIELD
INITIALLY WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE BEFORE BACKING AGAIN TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY REGIME AHEAD OF THE LOWERING GULF PRESSURES. AGAIN...WAS
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PULL EVEN THE SMALL MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF
THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS OR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BUT VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHTER
RAINS INTERMITTENTLY CROSSING BOTH TERMINALS. A VARIABLE AND LIGHT LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD INITIALLY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....STRAHAN
DATA COLLECTION.......WAH
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