Expires:No;;817809
FXUS65 KVEF 190959
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
300 AM PDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL 
LEAD TO BREEZY TO WINDY PERIODS THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE WINDS LESSEN 
SOME OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL 
TODAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY SOUTHWEST TO WEST 
FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A 
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL 
CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA DURING THE 
AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH 
THE FLOW WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE WINDS SLIGHTLY. SPEEDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS HOWEVER.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS TODAY AND 
THURSDAY DUE TO THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. BUT A WARMING TREND WILL 
BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO WEAKEN. FOR LAS VEGAS 
THE EXPECTANT HIGH OF 97 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WILL END THE STRING 
OF 17 DAYS OF 100 DEGREE READINGS OR WARMER AND ALSO THE STRING OF 
20 DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
.LONG TERM...MINIMAL CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED AS MODELS 
SHOWED GOOD CONTINUITY AND OVERALL AGREEMENT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW 
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND RESULTING IN DRY 
CONDITIONS...LOCALLY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE 
AFTERNOONS...AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL 
NORMS. DAY TO DAY CHANGES WILL BE LIMITED. FURTHER OUT...MODELS 
STILL SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST...CENTERED 
JUST EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OF THE LATEST 
DETERMINISTIC RUNS...THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION 
IN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH PWATS UP TO ABOUT 1 INCH ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  STILL 
NOT THAT SUBSTANTIAL...BUT ABOUT A 4X INCREASE FROM CURRENT LEVELS. 
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY 
LIGHTEN UP THIS MORNING AND MAY ACTUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE 
(FAVORING THE NORTHWEST BUT UNDER 10KTS) BY LATE MORNING / EARLY 
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN PICK UP AGAIN BY LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE WINDS DURING THAT 
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD...OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS 
HIGH THAT ANY STRONGER WINDS (10KT OR GREATER) WILL BE OUT OF THE 
SOUTHWEST. SKIES WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY CLEAR.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST 
CALIFORNIA...WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 WITH GUSTS 20KTS CAN BE 
EXPECTED IN GENERAL...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER MOHAVE 
COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY CLEAR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE DISTRICT 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOONS. THE 
AREA OF MOST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE NORTHWEST ARIZONA WHERE A RED 
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO WINDS 
AND VERY LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. WINDS IN THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED 
TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS TODAY THAN ON TUESDAY AND WIDESPREAD RED FLAG 
CONDITIONS MAY NOT BE SEEN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO 
LOWER THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY. HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
BE STRONGER ON THURSDAY WITH A MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT RED FLAG 
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM MST TODAY FOR AZZ102.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ102. 
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
JENSEN/KENNEDY
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