Expires:No;;276928
FXUS63 KMQT 262322 AAA
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
621 PM EST THU NOV 26 2009
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...ISSUED AT 405 PM
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS STRETCHED FROM NEAR THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC TO 
JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY. OTHER FEATURES OF NOTE...THAT WILL INFLUENCE 
OUR WEATHER SHORTLY INCLUDE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING 
ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA...THROUGH THE MAIN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM 
LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 
HOURS...THE MAIN HIGH OVER TEXAS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI 
DELTA REGION...WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL 
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW NEAR LAKE HURON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND 
BECOME APART OF THE MID ATLANTIC LOW...WITH JUST A TROUGH LINGERING 
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. 
AS A RESULT...EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE ON A DOWN SWING...WITH 
LITTLE TO ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ABOVE 800MB FROM 00Z TONIGHT 
THROUGH NEARLY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...AT LEAST ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER 
MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE EAST...NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE 
LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION...WITH RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVER 
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AROUND...OR JUST AFTER 00Z. 
BEST AREA FOR SNOW GROWTH REMAINS BETWEEN 600 AND 700MB...OR AT THE 
VERY TOP OF OUR MOISTURE PROFILE THROUGH 09Z FRIDAY AT ERY...BEFORE 
MOISTURE BECOMES EVEN MORE LIMITED.  LOOKING AT TAMDAR SOUNDINGS IN 
RELATION TO THE GFS AND NAM...IT LOOKS LIKE THE GFS MAY HAVE A 
SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON 850MB TEMPERATURES...AT LEAST EARLY THIS 
AFTERNOON. A 16Z FLIGHT FROM SAW INDICATED 850MB TEMPS AT -4.8C...AT 
THE SAME TIME THE NAM HAD -5.5C. AS A RESULT...WILL HEDGE THE 
FORECAST SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE GFS...AT LEAST TEMPERATURE/PRECIP 
TYPE WISE...WHICH MEANS A SLOWER CHANGE OVER TO SNOW EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TO START THE LONG TERM 
PERIOD...WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD 
NEAR MAINE...MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT 
LAKES...AND A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. CLOUDS WILL 
SLOWLY MOVE OUT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST UNDER RISING 
HEIGHTS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A NICE DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH 
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. THE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FLATTEN OUT 
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS 
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE 
CWA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST OF IT WILL NOT MOVE THROUGH 
UNTIL THE DAY ON SUNDAY...SO HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY 
NIGHT AND THEN CHANCE POPS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY.  BOTH THE 
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SUFFICIENT COLD AIR OF -10C BEHIND THE TROUGH 
PASSAGE FOR SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE TYPICAL WEST 
NORTHWEST SNOW BELTS. FOLLOWING THE 12Z ECMWF...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE 
WILL TRY AND SLIDE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY 
PROVIDING MORE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA. 
AS THIS LOW EXITS ON TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS WILL END AND WINDS WILL 
SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL 
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL APPROACH LAKE SUPERIOR 
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE OFF TO THE WEST IN MN. 
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE 
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S 
TO LOWER 40S. 
THINGS GET TRICKY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY WITH THE INTERACTION OF THAT 
LOW PRESSURE AND THE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF. BOTH THE GFS AND 
ECMWF NOW KEEP THESE FEATURES AS SEPARATE ENTITIES...SOMETHING THE 
GFS DID NOT DO ON ITS LAST RUN. LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. THE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE 
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY SPREADING SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST 
AREA...SO PUT IN CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE 
IN. LAKE EFFECT PCPN WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING THOUGH AT BOTH 
SITES. COULD BE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS AT SAW 
THOUGH THIS EVENING. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMING OVER THE WARM 
LAKE WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS IN FOR MOST OF THE DAY FRI UNTIL AFTERNOON 
AT BOTH SITES THOUGH.  
&&
.MARINE /FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...
LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY TO FAR NORTHERN 
LAKE HURON. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION...AS 
A RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY 
EVENING. IN BETWEEN...NNW WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 30 TO 35 KNOTS EAST 
HALF THIS EVENING. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY 
WILL SHIFT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW 
WILL SOON BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE ENTERING THE UPPER GREAT 
LAKES...WHILE THE MAIN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES. FOR TUESDAY...EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM TO DIP FROM ALBERT TO THE NORTHERN MINNESOTA. 
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...AJK
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF