Expires:No;;246973
FXUS64 KMOB 252341 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
541 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL 
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE 
BECOME DEEPLY MIXED WITH STRONGER WINDS PRESENT ATOP THE MIXED 
LAYER. EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE 
DAY...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. 34/JFB
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE 
TROUGH AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL 
PROVIDE US WITH A COOL...DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FIVE TO TEN DEGREES BELOW 
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  A SECONDARY SURGE OF 
COLDER TEMPERATURES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW 
MORNING CREATING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COASTLINE AND 
DROPPING TEMPERATURES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING 
TO NEAR AND BELOW THE FREEZING MARK AT INLAND SITES. SITES WITHIN 
COASTAL COUNTIES INLAND OF THE COAST WILL BECOME SUSCEPTIBLE TO 
FROST AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID 30S. /08 JVW
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BY SATURDAY AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE REGION AND THE SURFACE HIGH HAS 
PUSHED EAST ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF 
AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH 
HIGHS TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL.  RETURN FLOW IS FIRMLY ESTABLISHED BY 
SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL 
THROUGH MONDAY.  THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES 
SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES.  THE STRONGEST 
STORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE...STILL APPEAR MOST LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON 
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  SHOWERS AND OCNL THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL 
POSSIBLE EVEN AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A 
DEEP...UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE SOUTHERN SPLIT CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE 
AREA WEATHER. /08 JVW 
&&
.MARINE...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDGING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BRING MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE OFFSHORE AREAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS APPROACH 20 KNOTS. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
SUBSIDE QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CLOSES IN AND WINDS VEER AROUND ONSHORE BY
SATURDAY. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE MARINE AREA THE
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES
IN FROM TEXAS. ADJUSTED WAVE MODEL OUTPUT UPWARD TO REFLECT HIGHER
VALUES RENDERED BY BRETSCHNEIDER METHOD...ESPECIALLY FOR ONSHORE
WINDS. /77
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE 
NORTHERLY WINDS AND A COOL...DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS.   RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 
30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.  HUMIDITIES SHOULD DROP BELOW 
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN 
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OF LONG ENOUGH 
DURATION TO WARRANT A WATCH OR WARNING AT THIS TIME. /08 JVW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      40  61  33  60 /  05  05  00  00 
PENSACOLA   43  62  41  62 /  05  05  05  00 
DESTIN      49  62  47  62 /  05  05  05  00 
EVERGREEN   36  60  32  60 /  05  05  05  00 
WAYNESBORO  35  59  30  59 /  05  05  00  00 
CAMDEN      37  59  33  58 /  05  05  05  00 
CRESTVIEW   38  63  32  61 /  05  05  05  00 
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM FRIDAY FOR THE 
FOLLOWING      ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...AND LOWER MOBILE. 
     FREEZE WATCH FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER 
     MOBILE...WASHINGTON...AND WILCOX. 
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA 
     ROSA. 
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM FRIDAY FOR THE 
FOLLOWING      ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...AND 
COASTAL      SANTA ROSA. 
MS...FREEZE WATCH FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND WAYNE. 
GM...NONE.
&&
$$