Expires:No;;253793 FXUS64 KEWX 260525 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 1125 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009 .DISCUSSION... SEE AVIATION FOR THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. A DECK OF ALTOCU AT AROUND 7K FT WAS ALSO LOCATED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MMPG TO KPEZ MOVING EAST. SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THURSDAY AFTERNOON SFC WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST AT THE I-35 TERMINALS...SOUTHEAST AT KDRT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 852 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009/ UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED TO REFLECT ONGOING TRENDS TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS FOR TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AS FAR NORTH AS AN EAGLE PASS TO CONCAN TO CATARINA LINE. HAVE GONE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THAT AREA THIS EVENING WITH EXPECTATION THAT IT WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT CHANGE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST, ALTHOUGH THE 18Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THE TREND OF SHOWING A LACK OF CONSISTENCY AND CONSENSUS FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009/ DISCUSSION... A CIRRUS DECK WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY UP FROM THE VALLEY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT INHIBIT TEMPERATURES FROM DIPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW MORE CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL ENABLE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS DEEPER MOISTURE KEEPS TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60. COULD SEE A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND PEAK ON MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE GREATEST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY. WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND RAIN CHANCES...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUBDUED AND STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 (40S AND LOW 50S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY). FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE HILL COUNTRY TUESDAY MORNING. GFS IS INDICATING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY. COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND LIGHT SLEET ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR THE FIRST MORNING OF DECEMBER. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND MENTIONED THIS CHANCE IN THE GRIDS. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AT BEST AS THIS IS THE DAYS 6-7 TIME FRAME AND THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR COULD BE PUSHED IN EITHER DIRECTION BY A FEW HOURS AND/OR THE AIRMASS COULD DRY OUT QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 39 67 45 70 51 / 0 0 0 - - AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 34 68 36 69 46 / 0 0 0 - - NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 37 69 39 68 48 / 0 0 0 - - BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 38 66 42 68 50 / 0 0 0 - - DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 39 68 43 67 49 / 0 0 0 - - GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 39 66 43 69 51 / 0 0 0 - - HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 35 67 41 69 50 / 0 0 0 - - SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 38 67 41 68 47 / 0 0 0 - - LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 38 66 39 67 50 / 0 0 0 - 10 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 39 68 44 69 49 / 0 0 0 - - STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 38 68 42 69 50 / 0 0 0 - - && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 04/13