Expires:No;;835256 FXUS64 KLZK 191937 AFDLZK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 237 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 .DISCUSSION... MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE ANY CHANCES OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AN ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WARMING AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO NE TO EAST CENTRAL AR AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO EXPAND MUCH...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A BIT NORTH TO WHERE WEAK BOUNDARY IS. CONVECTION WILL HOLD TOGETHER IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY...THEN FADE AFTER SUNSET. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION THIS EARLY EVENING OVER THESE PARTS OF AR DUE TO WEAK LIFT AND OUT FLOW BOUNDARIES. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE STALLED FRONT OVER NORTHERN LA...WITH ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE AR AND MO TN STATE LINES. A BIT LOWER DEW POINT TEMPS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WHILE OVER MUCH OF AR...DEW POINT TEMPS WERE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. STILL EXPECT OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE TO BE LOW. THE UPPER NW FLOW HAS ALSO BROUGHT A BIT OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO NORTHERN AR THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE EARLY EVENING PERIOD FOR N TO N CENTRAL AR...ENDING AFTER SUNSET. DID ADD SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEY AREAS OF WEST TO NORTH WEST AR PER TRENDS THIS MORNING AND EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY OVER WEST TO NORTH AR AS MODELS SHOW SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY AFTERNOON. ALSO MAY SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION EAST OK TO NE TX TO NW LA WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY LIFTING A BIT NORTH ON THURSDAY. AGAIN OVERALL COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE EASTERN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE A CAP TO CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT...AND A MOSTLY DRY AND HOT DAY IS EXPECTED. CURRENT FORECAST HAS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION AND WILL KEEP THIS. TEMPS WARM TO THE LOWER AND SOME MID 90S. NO CHANGE INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MOSTLY DRY AND HOT WEATHER. AGAIN OVERALL CONVECTION CHANCES REMAIN LOW...WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING POTENTIAL IN THE HEATING OF THE DAY. TEMPS ALSO COME UP A DEGREE OR TWO. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL ALSO REMAIN UP AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S...AND A FEW SPOTS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES. && .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING STRONG. HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS RIGHT NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S. HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL BE IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BATESVILLE AR 68 91 69 92 / 20 10 10 10 CAMDEN AR 68 92 71 92 / 10 10 10 10 HARRISON AR 65 90 67 91 / 20 20 10 10 HOT SPRINGS AR 69 91 71 92 / 10 10 10 10 LITTLE ROCK AR 70 93 71 93 / 10 10 10 10 MONTICELLO AR 69 91 71 91 / 10 10 10 10 MOUNT IDA AR 67 90 70 91 / 10 10 10 10 MOUNTAIN HOME AR 66 91 68 92 / 20 20 10 10 NEWPORT AR 69 92 69 93 / 20 10 10 10 PINE BLUFF AR 69 92 70 92 / 10 10 10 10 RUSSELLVILLE AR 67 92 70 93 / 10 10 10 10 SEARCY AR 68 92 69 92 / 20 10 10 10 STUTTGART AR 70 92 71 92 / 10 10 10 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...58