Expires:No;;291641
FXUS64 KLZK 271147
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
547 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD. LGT WINDS EARLY THIS MRNG
WL BCM S/SWLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS BY MIDDAY. EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO
STREAM EWD ACRS THE AREA LATE TNGT...MAINLY OVR SWRN AR. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009/ 
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR CONTINUING ITO FILTER INTO THE 
FA...WITH CALM WINDS AND DROPPING TEMPS VERIFYING THE FREEZE WARNING 
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. WILL ALLOW THE FREEZE 
WARNING TO EXPIRE THIS MORNING...AND WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN 
TODAY WOULD NOT EXPECT A REPEAT TONIGHT. 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST WITH RIDGE BUILDING OUT OF THE 
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN THE MEANTIME AN UPPER TROUGH WILL 
DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER WEST COAST...PRODUCING A CUT OFF LOW THAT WILL 
DIP SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY EAST ACROSS THE CWA MID WEEK. MOISTURE WILL 
BEGIN TO INTERJECT OUT AHEAD OF IT...WITH RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING 
LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. DELAYED THE BEST CHC INTO 
MONDAY...WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASING BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT 
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY STILL REMAINS 
LOW...WITH BEST THUNDERSTORM CHC IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
LOWERED POPS IN THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE FASTER 
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SHOWING UP IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. TEMPS 
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...FALLING ON MONDAY 
BEHIND THE FROPA. 
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
HIGH PRES WL BE IN CONTROL ACRS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PD...
WITH A STALLED FNT IN THE GULF. MODELS CONT TO INDC A NEW UPR LOW WL 
MOVE OUT OF THE SWRN STATES AND EVENTUALLY TRACK ACRS THE REGION 
DURG THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS CONTS TO 
INDC A MORE SLY TRACK WITH THE ASSOCD SFC LOW...KEEPING THE BULK OF 
PRECIP TO THE SE OF AR. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SHOWS OVERRUNNING 
RAINFALL ACRS THE FA STARTING LATE WED. OPTED TO STICK WITH A BLEND 
OF THE MODELS AND KEEP POPS CONFINED TO MAINLY TUE NGT AND WED. 
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RMN A BLW NORMAL LVLS THRU THE PD.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-
FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-YELL.
&&
$$