Expires:No;;229931 FXUS62 KFFC 251016 AAA AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 515 AM EST WED NOV 25 2009 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WEAK AND OCCLUDING FRONT STRETCHING FROM A DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL EASE THROUGH THE STATE INCONSPICUOUSLY TODAY. SREF HINTS AT A LITTLE MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IN EXTREME NRN GA...SO WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHC OF SPRINKLES UP THERE. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD SEE NOTHING MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT AND GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR MOST OF THE AREA. ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS MORNING...BUT THAT WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. LARGE...MODIFIED MARITIME POLAR AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO GA BEHIND THE FRONT...SO TEMPS WILL COOL BUT NOT DRAMATICALLY. VERY FEW DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE NEAR TERM. ALL PROG A MAJOR 500 MB LOW TO TREK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BY TOMORROW AND THEN SWING THE BASE OF ITS TROF ACROSS GA BY FRIDAY MORNING. ECMWF IS A BIT DEEPER AND FASTER THAN NAM AND GFS...BRINGING A SINGLE 500 MB TROF ACROSS THE STATE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS AND NAM SEEM TO PREFER A DOUBLE TROF PASSAGE...PUSHING A QUICK TROF THRU NRN GA THURSDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN TROF FRIDAY MORNING. WILL GO WITH THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION AND WILL NOT STRAY MUCH FROM GUIDANCE TEMPS AND POPS. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. WAS INITIALLY CONCERNED ABOUT A BRIEF FLURRY OR TWO IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE TOO DRY FOR THAT...ALTHO THICKNESSES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF IT. MAY NEED TO WATCH MOISTURE FIELDS TO SEE IF ANYTHING CAN BE SQUEEZED OUT. FOR NOW...THOUGH...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. IMPRESSIVE NOR'EASTER DEVELOPS AS UPPER TROF DEVELOPS AN OFFSHORE LOW AND LIFTS IT INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AND SEASONABLE AS LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EMERGE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS DEVELOPS A STOUT LOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST...THEN LIFTS AND DEEPENS IT ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEDGE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL GA. THIS IS A POTENTIAL COOL SEASON SEVERE PATTERN FOR US BUT THE GFS IS DECIDEDLY DIFFERENT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE COUSINS. THEY LIFT THE LOW QUICKLY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND BOMB IT OUT...KEEPING GA DRY. EMWCF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN. WILL LEAN TOWARD THIS GFS/EMWCF/CANADIAN SOLUTION AND KEEP HIGHER POPS IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. STILL A LONG WAY OUT...BUT NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SEVERE THREAT FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IF THESE SOLUTIONS ARE CLOSE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THESE EXTENDED PERIODS. && .AVIATION... LIFR CONDITIONS CONFINED TO MCN AND AHN AT THIS TIME. ATL AREA SITES HAD DROPPED TO IFR/LIFR EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH CIGS BETWEEN 035-050 HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE SITES AND MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. CLEAR SKIES ARE ENTERING NORTHWEST GEORGIA CURRENTLY AND AS THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT ATL AREA TAF SITES TO REMAIN VFR...OR ONLY BRIEFLY GO MVFR THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH AHN AND MCN MVFR/VFR BY 16/20Z. CALM TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 12-14Z...BUT REMAIN 3 KTS OR LESS...INCREASING TO 5 KTS AND SHIFTING WEST AFTER 18Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 62 41 61 34 59 / 5 0 0 5 5 ATLANTA 62 42 57 35 57 / 5 0 0 5 5 BLAIRSVILLE 59 38 53 31 51 / 5 0 0 10 5 CARTERSVILLE 62 37 56 34 55 / 5 0 0 5 5 COLUMBUS 66 42 62 36 60 / 0 0 0 5 5 GAINESVILLE 61 42 59 35 54 / 0 0 0 5 5 MACON 68 39 60 35 62 / 10 0 0 5 5 ROME 64 38 56 35 57 / 5 0 0 5 5 PEACHTREE CITY 64 36 57 30 58 / 5 0 0 5 5 VIDALIA 66 40 65 35 61 / 30 0 0 5 5 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 27