Expires:No;;487312 FXUS65 KPUB 211844 AFDPUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 1244 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1243 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013 UPDATED SHORT TERM FORECASTS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA. LW UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013 UPDATED SHORT TERM FORECASTS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA. LW && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013 ...STARTING THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND GREAT BASIN REGION AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MIDWEST UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE DATA INDICATING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO WITH REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AT THIS TIME. TODAY AND TONIGHT...BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING SLOWLY MODERATES AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MODELS INDICATING NEW MEXICO WAVE CONTINUING TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS LESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH BEST UVV REMAINING EAST OF THE AREA. CONVECTION TODAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE MORE HIGH BASED AND LESS EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING MEASURABLE RAINFALL...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING MORE INVERTED V PROFILES. AT ANY RATE...EXPECTING MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTS. SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...THOUGH WILL HAVE A HARD TIME SUSTAINING WITH THE DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ALL CONVECTION ENDS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTS BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS. WARMING ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY ALONG WITH WARMER LOWS TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013 ...WARMING UP... WEDNESDAY...A LARGE UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SIT OVER THE PAC NW ON WED...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS CO. THIS WILL USHER IN WARMER TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE...WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. NAM...GFS AND EC MODELS DO SHOW SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE AFTN AND EVE...SLANTED MORE TOWARDS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUCH AS THE CENT MTS AND PALMER DVD. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON BRINGING SFC HIGH PRES DOWN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AND BACKING INTO THE EASTERN CO PLAINS...WHICH SETS THE STAGE FOR THU. THURSDAY...E-SE SFC FLOW STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING...BRINGING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND HIGHER RH LEVELS FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS. FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR THE PLAINS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN WED. AS FOR PCPN CHANCES...THE GFS SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE ON QPF AND PCPN COVERAGE...BUT TRUE AREAL COVERAGE IS A TOUGH CALL. DECIDED TO GO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE E PLAINS AND BANKING UP AGAINST THE E MTS THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVE HRS. FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE PAC NW OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WHILE SW FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS. THIS WILL PUSH MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST...BUT THE GFS AND EC MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY ON WHERE THE DRYLINE WILL SET UP. THE EC KEEPS THE DRYLINE WAVERING BACK INTO CO EACH DAY...WHILE THE GFS ESSENTIALLY KEEPS IT EAST OF THE CO/KS STATE LINE AND INTRODUCES UP TO 4 DAYS OF POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS. DECIDED TO GO WITH ISOLATED AFTN AND EVE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FAR E PLAINS EACH DAY...WHILE THE REST OF CWA BAKES WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 90S. FOR NOW...FEEL THIS IS THE BEST COURSE WHILE HIGHLIGHTING THE FIRE WX POTENTIAL AS THE WEEKEND NEARS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRY AND PIN DOWN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE A BIT BETTER. MOORE && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1113 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013 GENERALLY VFR ACROSS FLIGHT AREA NEXT 24 HOURS...INCLUDING ALL 3 TAF SITES. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP 17Z-03Z BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ...MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT ACTIVITY. ALSO...WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. LW && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...LW SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...LW