Expires:No;;260317 FXUS64 KEPZ 261034 AFDEPZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 334 AM MST THU NOV 26 2009 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT RAIN AND SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. && .DISCUSSION... UPPER RIDGE IN NORTHERN BRANCH WILL MOVE ACROSS GREAT BASIN INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND HOPEFULLY DRY WEATHER. A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS DUE TO MOVEMENT OF UPPER WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO NEXT 2 DAYS. BACKING FLOW AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSPORT HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA CAUSING SOME MID AND HIGH CEILINGS. HOWEVER BELIEVE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP THROUGH FRIDAY. VERY COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING RESPECTABLE AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY CONCERNING SYNOPTIC SCALE SCENARIO. NOW EXPECT DEEP UPPER LOW TO ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA. THIS COMBINED WITH LEE SURFACE TROUGHING TO THE EAST WILL BRING NEAR BREEZY CONDITIONS AND ANOTHER DAY OF MILD DRY WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WHICH MAY RECEIVE ISOLATED PRECIP. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEASTWARD SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY DRIFTING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ACROSS ARIZONA AND INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. BACKING MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD ADVECT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS WHILE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING DIFFERENTIAL PVA WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED AS THE CWA WILL BE LOCATED IN LEFT FRONT QUAD OF 150 KT JET STREAK. THESE FACTORS WILL CAUSE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DURING THIS TIME THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT BOTH LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL SUSTAIN INFLOW OF RELATIVELY WARM AIR. THUS EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN TO FALL WITH ANY SNOW OCCURRING MAINLY ABOVE 8000 FEET MSL. THIS SITUATION WILL TRANSITION SUNDAY EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. STRONG COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL RESULT IN A RAIN AND SNOW MIX OR EVEN PERIODS OF ALL SNOW OVER THE LOWLANDS WITH POSSIBLE HEAVIER SNOWS ON THE MOUNTAINS. AT MOMENT BELIEVE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO ALLOW INFLOW OF DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST BY EARLY TUESDAY. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF CEILINGS ABOVE 10,000 FEET AGL LIKELY. && .FIRE WEATHER... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER MEXICO CAUSING SOME HIGH CLOUDS. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. IN ADDITION A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN WINDS ON SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THUS THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL GREATLY LOWER THE FIRE DANGER EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEST WINDS WILL CAUSE DRIER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... EL PASO 64 39 67 43 68 / 0 0 10 10 10 SIERRA BLANCA TX 59 32 65 38 66 / 0 0 10 10 0 LAS CRUCES 63 36 66 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 10 ALAMOGORDO 60 34 65 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 CLOUDCROFT 47 22 54 31 58 / 0 0 0 0 10 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 61 32 64 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 10 SILVER CITY 59 31 63 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 20 DEMING 64 35 66 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 10 LORDSBURG 65 34 67 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 20 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 05 ROGASH