Expires:No;;609854 FXUS64 KEPZ 240942 AFDEPZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 341 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013 .SYNOPSIS... SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PUSH MOIST UNSTABLE AIR INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS TODAY AND SATURDAY. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW FOR AREAS OF THE BORDERLAND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS. FOR NEXT WEEK WARM DRY AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. && .DISCUSSION... DEEP CONVECTION OVER HUDSPETH COUNTY ON THURSDAY CREATED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH HAS PUSHED MOIST AIR TO THE WEST AS FAR AS THE RIO GRANDE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS TO 50 AS FAR WEST AS EL PASO. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE AIR MASS TODAY MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE WITH CAPES AROUND 500 TO 1000 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM .75 TO 1 INCH. THUS DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS CONVERGENCE ALONG DRY LINE TROUGH AND SURFACE HEATING SHOULD INITIATE STORMS. WIND SHEAR WILL INCLUDE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS BENEATH 20 TO 30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT MID LEVELS WHILE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 8000 FEET AGL INDICATING RISK OF HAIL WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS 40 TO 50 ALSO SUGGESTING STRONG DOWNBURSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER HUDSPETH COUNTY WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL EXIST. ELSEWHERE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SUSTAIN WARM DRY WEATHER. ON SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND THUS DRY LINE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY TO HUDSPETH AND EASTERN OTERO COUNTY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG WEST COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING EAST ON SUNDAY WITH STRENGTHENING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ADVECTING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. THUS DRY LINE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE ENTIRE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ENDING PRECIP/THUNDER THREAT ALL LOCATIONS. UPPER TROUGH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY AMPLIFY AND MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH AXIS PASSING ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY WHILE LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE EAST. INFLOW OF WARM DRY AIR WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS TO NEAR 550 MB ALLOWING DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. THUS EXPECT OCCASIONALLY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY CAUSING CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. EARLIER ECMWF RUNS ACTUALLY HAD CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE BORDER CAUSING INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP LATER NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER LATEST ECMWF RUN PLUS ENSEMBLES INDICATE ANY CLOSED LOWS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE CWA. && .AVIATION...VALID 24/12Z-25/12Z A FEW AREAS OF MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .FIRE WEATHER... SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PUSH MOIST UNSTABLE AIR INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS TODAY AND SATURDAY. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW FOR AREAS OF THE BORDERLAND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS. A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER HUDSPETH COUNTY. ELSEWHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SUSTAIN WARM DRY WEATHER TODAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WARM DRY WEATHER TO ALL LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST TO GENERATE OCCASIONALLY BREEZY TO WINDY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS NEAR OR EXCEEDING RED FLAG CRITERIA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... EL PASO 93 68 94 68 95 / 20 20 10 10 0 SIERRA BLANCA 89 64 91 63 92 / 30 30 20 20 10 LAS CRUCES 92 59 93 59 94 / 10 10 10 10 0 ALAMOGORDO 91 59 92 60 93 / 20 20 10 10 0 CLOUDCROFT 69 46 70 46 71 / 40 30 30 20 10 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 89 60 90 59 91 / 10 0 0 0 0 SILVER CITY 91 53 91 52 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 DEMING 93 54 94 54 95 / 10 0 0 0 0 LORDSBURG 91 55 91 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 WEST EL PASO METRO 92 68 93 68 94 / 20 20 10 10 0 DELL CITY 91 57 93 58 94 / 30 30 30 20 10 FORT HANCOCK 94 66 96 67 97 / 30 20 10 10 0 LOMA LINDA 86 57 87 58 88 / 20 20 10 10 0 FABENS 93 66 94 66 95 / 20 20 10 10 0 SANTA TERESA 92 62 93 62 94 / 10 10 10 10 0 WHITE SANDS HQ 90 67 91 67 92 / 10 10 10 10 0 JORNADA RANGE 90 52 91 52 92 / 10 10 10 10 0 HATCH 88 60 89 59 90 / 10 0 10 0 0 COLUMBUS 92 59 93 59 94 / 10 0 0 0 0 OROGRANDE 93 59 94 60 95 / 20 20 10 10 0 MAYHILL 78 54 79 54 80 / 40 30 30 30 10 MESCALERO 81 45 82 45 83 / 40 30 20 20 10 TIMBERON 79 46 80 46 81 / 40 30 30 20 10 WINSTON 82 46 83 46 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 HILLSBORO 85 54 86 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 SPACEPORT 88 57 89 57 90 / 10 10 10 10 0 LAKE ROBERTS 83 46 84 45 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 HURLEY 87 57 88 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 CLIFF 93 49 93 47 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 MULE CREEK 90 39 90 38 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 FAYWOOD 85 54 86 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 ANIMAS 92 55 92 53 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 HACHITA 93 54 93 53 93 / 10 0 0 0 0 ANTELOPE WELLS 93 57 93 55 93 / 10 0 0 0 0 CLOVERDALE 89 52 89 51 89 / 10 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 05 ROGASH