Expires:No;;239234 FXUS64 KLIX 251756 AAA AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1156 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009 .UPDATE... STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING TOO FAST EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ROSE FASTER DURING THE LATER MORNING HOURS WITH THE BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND WEAKER COLD AIR ADVECTION. OTHER THEN SOME LINGERING MARINE ISSUES...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. && .MARINE... MID MORNING MARINE FORECAST RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS WEST OF SOUTHWEST PASS. THIS ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON AS WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. && .AVIATION... CLEAR VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOTS RANGE AT KMSY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. 22/TD && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009/ UPDATE... ..SOUNDING DISCUSSION... NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. ANOTHER DRY SOUNDING THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ABOVE 775 MILLIBARS. WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE MODERATE TO GUSTY FROM THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE...AND FAIRLY STRONG AND WESTERLY ALOFT. OTHERWISE A VERY QUIET DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE REGION. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009/ SHORT TERM... HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGING THE SOUTHERN END OF THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS NOW MOVED THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER STRONG PULSE OF COLD DRY AIR WILL MOVING VERY FAST TOWARD THE AREA. CURRENTLY THIS SECONDARY SURGE IS LOCATED OVER THE DAKOTAS AND WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY EARLY THU MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A NICE WEATHER PATTERN FOR SEVERAL DAYS. LONG TERM... THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE IN BY SUNDAY OR MON. THIS ONE LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF THERMAL AND JET LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE MODEL USED HERE IS THE GFS. THE ETA IS A LITTLE WEAK WITH THE 00Z SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS AND THE ECMWF IS WAY TOO STRONG. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING 20KT STRONGER WINDS THAT WHAT THE NASHVILLE UA SOUNDING SHOWS AT 300MB. THAT IS A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT GREATER AT THAT LEVEL. THIS WOULD RESULT IN THE TROUGH PULLING OUT QUICKER SO HAVE STUCK WITH THE GFS SOLUTION BRINGING THE CURRENT UPPER TROUGH OUT ROUGHLY 6 HRS LATER. THIS SAME SOLUTION BRINGS A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. ATTM WE CAN ONLY SAY THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. STRONG WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY BUT NUMBERS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE. LOCAL MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT ARE CONCENTRATED AND MESHED OVER JUST THIS AREA OF THE GULF COAST ARE SHOWING LOW END TS STRENGTH NUMBERS. IN DIRECT CONTRAST...THE LOCALIZED SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING SOME VERY COLD AIR AND SOME MIX OF PRECIP BEHIND THE SYSTEM BY TUE...AT LEAST FOR THE NORTHERN-MOST PORTION OF THE AREA. REGARDLESS...NOT ENOUGH INFORMATION IS KNOWN ON THIS SYSTEM TO CONFIRM ITS SEVERE OR WINTER WX POTENTIAL AND THESE VARIABLES WILL BE IRONED OUT AS MORE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE EVALUTATED. AVIATION...COLD FRONT HAS PRETTY MUCH MOVED THROUGH ALL OF THE TERMINALS. WITH THAT ALL SITES ARE IN VFR STATUS AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THIS WAY THROUGH THE FCST. ANY CLOUD COVER SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA WITH SKC IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRUS MAY MOVE IN LATE TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NNW-N THROUGH FRI MORNING. /CAB/ MARINE...COLD FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT MOVED THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS HAVE YET TO REALLY COME UP ON THE BACK SIDE BUT I AM STILL EXPECTING SCS HEADLINES THROUGH THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING IN THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE DURING THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AIR AND THUS STRONGER WINDS. CAA WILL BE DECENT IN THE LL AND THIS SHOULD HELP TRANSPORT DOWN SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS JUST ABV THE SFC. WIND GUSTS OF NEAR 25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED BEGINNING DURING THE LATE AFTN HRS AND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE WINDS QUICKLY RELAX FRI MORNING AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE EAST. SCY'S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY THU AFTN/EVN WITH SCS HEADLINES LIKELY AS EARLY AS THU MORNING. FRI AND SAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOW AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN SUN AS THE SFC HIGH PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FCST PAST SUN NIGHT BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING WITH IT STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS TO THE AREA AGAIN. COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES COULD ALSO BE A PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM. AGAIN THIS IS 6-7 DAYS OUT AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT IT IS SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON. /CAB/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 64 38 60 31 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 66 40 62 34 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 66 46 62 40 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 68 42 63 34 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$