Expires:No;;676265
FXUS64 KLIX 252055
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
355 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SHORT TERM...QUIET AND MOSTLY COMFORTABLE DAY FOR LATE MAY. DRIER 
AIR HAS PUSHED INTO THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE 50S 
TO LOWER 60S ON THE SOUTHSHORE. 
RIDGE CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A 
WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLOODING RAINS 
OVER SAT. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY 
REMAIN JUST OFF TO OUR N AND W WITH MDLS INDICATING PWS LESS THAN 
1.25.  WITH THAT WE WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE ISLTD CONVECTION OVER OUR 
EXTREME NW. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON MEMORIAL DAY AS 
HGHTS FALL A LITTLE MORE OVER THE AREA AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE 
FINALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION. DIURNAL ISLTD TO WIDELY SCT 
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ACTIVITY QUICKLY DISSIPATING AFTER 
SUNSET. 
AS FOR TEMPS PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE RULE FOR HIGHS AS LL TEMPS WILL 
NOT CHANGE MUCH. THE ONLY ISSUE THAT COULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE 
OR TWO WOULD BE POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER OR RAIN. AS FOR LOWS MORNING 
LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TOMORROW MORNING AS THIS MORNING...MAYBE EVEN A 
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN SOME SPOTS BUT WITH SRLY FLOW RETURNING 
TOMORROW AFTN AND DEWPOINTS ON THE RISE MON LOWS WILL BE A GOOD 5-7 
DEGREES WARMER. 
.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT CONVECTION 
INCREASING DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER 
THE SERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A L/W TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE 
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHILE THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL BE B/T THE TWO. BY 
WED MDLS ARE SUGGESTING A WEAK WAVE AND BATCH OF MOISTURE WORKING IN 
FROM THE GULF OUT OF THE SE. THIS ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LOW MID LVL 
HGHTS SHOULD LEAD TO SCT CONVECTION. WITH THAT HAVE INCREASED POPS 
TO 30-40 ACROSS THE REGION FOR WED. SCT CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE 
POSSIBLE THU WITH LOWER CHANCES ON FRI AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD 
BACK OVER THE AREA. 
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION BEFORE PUSHING OFF 
TO THE EAST EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN LATE 
SUN AND AS A SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN MON NIGHT THROUGH WED AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL 
BECOME STRONG LIKELY NEEDING A SCY FOR SOME AREAS. WINDS WILL 
FINALLY BACK DOWN ON THU AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DIES DOWN. /CAB/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FCST. 
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE. 
DEPLOYED...NONE. 
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT. 
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
                                                                     
                              
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED  
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY 
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES 
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR               
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL          
         SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  59  85  65  85 /   0  10  10  20 
BTR  66  86  67  85 /   0  10  10  20 
ASD  61  85  67  85 /   0   0  10  20 
MSY  68  85  71  85 /   0   0  10  10 
GPT  64  83  70  83 /   0   0  10  10 
PQL  58  85  65  86 /   0   0  10  10 
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$