Expires:No;;857948
FXUS63 KSGF 200802
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
302 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013
GETTING A BIT HARDER AND HARDER TO SEE HOW WE WILL GET MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY. EVEN MODEST CONVECTION HAS
YET TO BREAK OUT ANYWHERE NEARBY OVER THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT WHERE A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET EXISTS. A VERY SUBTLE DISTURBANCE MAY TRY
TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. WON'T MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST...WITH
MODEST POPS OVER THE REGION TODAY...SLIGHTLY FOCUSED/HIGHER OVER
THE WESTERN CWFA. WITH TIME...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION LATE TODAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE MID MS VLY REGION THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN AVERAGE/MEAN
LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS OR JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AFTERNOON CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THERE WILL BE
LITTLE TO FOCUS ANYTHING SYNOPTICALLY. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL LIKELY REACH THE MID 90S FOR MANY AREAS ON A DAILY BASIS FOR
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE A BIT OF WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD
MON/TUE/WED WITH GLOBAL MODELS FLATTENING THE RIDGE THEN SHIFTING
IT BACK TOWARD THE WEST A BIT. STILL...THERE IS NO SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURE EVIDENT TO HANG YOUR HAT ON FOR PRECIP UNTIL MAYBE LATE
WED/DAY 7 AT THE EARLIEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PROB30 GROUP FOR
JLN/SGF. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SURFACE WIND WITH
AN INCREASE HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...GAGAN