Expires:No;;720004 FXUS62 KTAE 082234 CCA AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 510 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009 .SYNOPSIS... 21Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A RATHER FLAT NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTY/SOUTHERN CANADA. BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING APPROACHES FROM NORTHERN MEXICO/TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG 1027MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN INTO THE THE REGION. AND...OF COURSE ALL EYES ARE ON HURRICANE IDA MOVING NORTH FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. AT 300 PM CST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST...OR ABOUT 510 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 MPH...AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 976MB OR 28.82 INCHES. CHALLENGING FORECAST UNFOLDING FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH RESPECT TO IDA. THE CHALLENGING PART EVOLVES FROM THE COMPLEX INTERACTION THAT IDA IS GOING TO HAVE WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE...AND THE EVER TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IDA AND THE STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET OVERNIGHT FOR OUR LAND ZONES WITH JUST SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY ROUGH ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT WILL GIVE MORE DETAILS ON THIS IN THE MARINE SECTION BELOW. HURRICANE IDA WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF DURING MONDAY. THE HURRICANE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH/FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS INTERACTION WILL BEGIN WHAT IS REFERRED TO AS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. ESSENTIALLY THIS MEANS THAT THE STORM WILL BEGIN LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND START RESEMBLING A MORE TYPICAL WINTER-TYPE STORM. THE BIG QUESTION IS JUST HOW RAPIDLY THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR. THIS PROCESS APPEARS NOW THAT IT WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO OCCUR AND IDA MAY APPROACH THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH AT LEAST SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. AS A RESULT HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE COASTLINE (SEE WATCHES/WARNING SECTION BELOW). REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT STORM TYPE...COASTAL EFFECTS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE SAME. EASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE/TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ANTICIPATED OVER THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA AND ALONG SOME COASTAL AREAS. THE EXTENDED DURATION OF THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING SURF IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN AREAS OF MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION. STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY IN APALACHEE BAY...ESPECIALLY FOR MORE VULNERABLE LOCATIONS ALONG FRANKLIN AND WAKULLA COUNTIES. FURTHER WEST ALONG THE PANHANDLE STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED. COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE ALSO NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST. AS IT STANDS NOW...THE MAIN CONCERN AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL NOT BE THE WIND...BUT RATHER RAINFALL POTENTIAL. ONCE THE STORM HAS COMPLETELY TRANSITIONED TO EXTRA-TROPICAL IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN DEFORMATION ZONE/FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE PASSING JUST TO OUR WEST/NORTH. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION ON ITS EASTERN SIDE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BANDS. WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS SET UP WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON THE EXACT PATH OF IDA OR THE REMNANTS OF IDA...BUT THE TIME FRAME WOULD BE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WHEN THE DETAILS BECOME MORE CERTAIN...FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING ON BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF IDA MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTER LOOKS TO MOVE MORE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THAN THE SOUTHEAST...THUS THE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THIS FRONT. LOWS SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE A COUPLE OF BREEZY DAYS UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN THE RIDGE AXIS FINALLY MOVES OVER THE REGION. A GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS BOTH SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. BRISK EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF OF LOW CIGS/VSBYS FOR MOST TAF LOCATIONS. STILL...VLD...ABY...AND DHN MAY BRIEFLY SEE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOW CIGS AND BR SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING WITH INCREASING WINDS AND SURFACE HEATING. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE LATER PART OF THE DAY MONDAY. && .MARINE... ROUGH PERIOD UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HURRICANE IDA TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH IS ALREADY RESULTING IN SOLID ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS. THIS CONDITIONS WILL ONLY DETERIORATE FURTHER OVERNIGHT WITH HURRICANE WATCHES NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN LEGS AND GALE WATCHES IN EFFECT FURTHER EAST. HURRICANE IDA IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST WEST OF OUR MARINE LEGS MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM OR EVEN HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS ANTICIPATED. THE REMNANTS OF IDA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER STRONG NW WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EAST THEN SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE IDA/THE COLD FRONTAL MERGER. DUE TO EXPECTED WET WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...THUS NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 58 76 66 74 54 / 0 30 90 80 30 PANAMA CITY 63 75 67 73 55 / 10 60 100 70 30 DOTHAN 57 73 62 70 50 / 10 30 100 80 30 ALBANY 54 77 63 71 52 / 0 10 90 80 30 VALDOSTA 57 78 64 76 55 / 0 10 80 80 40 CROSS CITY 59 80 68 77 56 / 0 20 80 80 40 APALACHICOLA 65 75 67 75 55 / 10 60 90 70 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...COASTAL WALTON. HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: FRANKLIN...GULF. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: FRANKLIN...GULF...WAKULLA. GM...GALE WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM... WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...MROCZKA AVIATION/FIRE WEATEHR...AUSTIN/FOURNIER LONG TERM...GODSEY