Expires:No;;359622
FXUS65 KTWC 190345
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
845 PM MST SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. A 
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ALSO PREVAIL...WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME 
TEMPERATURES TO OCCUR DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...STILL LOOKING AT SOME MODERATE WINDS LATE THIS 
EVENING. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH IN SPEED OVER NIGHT BEFORE 
PICKING BACK UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...JUST LOOKING AT MOSTLY 
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CURRENT FORECAST APPEARED TO BE 
ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES THIS EVENING. 
&&
.AVIATION...SKC THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR 20/00Z. SFC WND EARLY THIS 
EVENING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON WLY/NWLY 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 
25 KTS...STRONGEST WIND EAST OF KTUS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND LESS 
THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
 
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK 
ALONG WITH A GRADUAL DAILY WARMING TREND. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE 
HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS 
WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS 
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE 
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. 
SOMEWHAT STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY RETURN THURSDAY AND 
FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN CONUS 
PLAINS AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST WILL PROVIDE 
A DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT REGIME ACROSS SE AZ THRU MON NIGHT. THIS 
PATTERN WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES...ALTHOUGH SOME CUMULOFORM CLOUDS MAY 
OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST 
ON TUE...THEN RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EWD WED IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING 
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NW. SOME CIRRIFORM CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUE-WED. 
THEREAFTER...FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SWLY THUR-FRI AS THE 
UPPER LOW REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THE 
TIGHTENING MID-LEVEL GRADIENT WILL LIKELY MEAN A RETURN OF BREEZY TO 
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THUR-FRI...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON 
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. DRY SWLY FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE NEXT SAT. 
SURFACE WINDS MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT AS THE MID-LEVEL GRADIENT 
LOOSENS.
HIGH TEMPS SUN WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS 
AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FEW DEGREES OF DAILY WARMING MON-WED FOLLOWED BY 
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS THUR-FRI. SLIGHTLY COOLER 
NEXT SAT ALTHOUGH FORECAST HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES 
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
  
&&
$$
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