Expires:No;;815924
FXUS65 KGJT 190900
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
300 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
NO CHANGE TO FORECAST THINKING AS MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. TODAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR AS INDICATED BY 00Z GJT PWATS OF .34
INCHES WITH FORECAST VALUES DROPPING TO ABOUT .2 INCHES. THE SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER OR/ID TODAY AND WILL REALLY START
TIGHTENING THE SFC GRADIENT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A VERY BREEZY DAY
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH...IF NOT HIGHER...BEING COMMON FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AS DESCRIBED IN FIRE WX SECTION BELOW. THICKNESSES ALSO CLEARLY
DEPICT DRY COOL FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
LOOKS TO BECOME FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL UT THROUGH NW
COLORADO TOWARDS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIP EXPECTED AS
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MUCH TOO DRY. FOR TODAY THEN...SUN...WARM
TEMPS...AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE 
CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A DRY 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED FROM ROUGHLY CENTRAL UTAH UP 
ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO. THIS PATTERN AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE 
FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME GRADIENT WINDS PRESENT TONIGHT THOUGH 
NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS DURING THE DAY. EXPECT ANOTHER WINDY DAY ON 
THURSDAY AS DAYTIME MIXING BRINGS THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE 
SURFACE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OR ITS REMNANT...LINGERS OVER THE NORTH WHILE 
THE LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FRIDAY 
SHOULD STILL FEATURE WIND THOUGH MODELS SUGGEST SOMEWHAT WEAKER 
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS.
REMAINDER OF LONG-TERM REMAINS DRY WITH GUSTY WINDS EACH
AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WX THROUGH SUNDAY THOUGH WINDS WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. INDUCED RIDGING THEN MOVES OVER THE AREA KEEPING FLOW
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY...DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...AND SOME
GUSTY SFC WINDS DUE TO DEEP MIXING. TEMPS WILL HOVER AROUND NORMAL
DURING THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE VARIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. ONLY CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS REACHING UPWARDS OF 35 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT SOME TURBULENCE DURING LANDING AND TAKEOFF AND ALSO NEAR
AND OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE...
NO CHANGE TO THE RED FLAG WARNINGS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR GUSTY WINDS 
AND LOW HUMIDITY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 
MPH ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE 
WINDS SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS 
BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN BY MIDDAY. NIGHTTIME HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL 
BE POOR. 
AS A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO NE UT AND NW CO LATE TODAY AND 
TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE WEST OR EVEN NORTHWEST 
DIRECTION TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE 
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AS DAYTIME MIXING OCCURS.
THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY 
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN APPEARS SLOW TO 
CHANGE. FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR SOME AREAS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED 
TO BE EXTENDED...SO STAY TUNED.
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...HUMIDITY VERY DRY...AND WINDS OFTEN 
STRONG WILL KEEP FUELS DRYING AT A RAPID PACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF 
THE WEEK. WARM AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE NEXT WEEK BUT WITH 
LESS WIND AS SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ200-202-203-
     290>292.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR 
     COZ207-293.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ482>484-486-487.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR/JAD
LONG TERM...TGR/JAD
AVIATION...TGR
FIRE WEATHER...JAD