Expires:No;;852894 FXUS63 KICT 200443 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1143 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 DELAYED POPS UNTIL AFTER 07-08Z WHEN BETTER H9-H8 MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH HOT AND MOSTLY DRY SUMMER WEATHER LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. DIFFICULT THUNDERSTORM FORECAST TONIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY A WEAK 700-500MB RIPPLE IS ADVANCING EAST ACROSS EASTERN KS. GIVEN THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH THE RELATIVELY UNCAPPED AIRMASS IN PLACE...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED HIT-AND-MISS THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET. NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE THOUGH. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO LATER TONIGHT WHEN EASTERN FRINGE OF ADVANCING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...DRAMATICALLY INCREASING 800-600MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2-3AM WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES MAY BE OVER CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS WHERE NOSE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS POINTING. NAM AND GFS ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGS INDICATE ~2500 J/KG INSTABILITY FROM PARCELS ROOTED AROUND 800MB...ALONG WITH AROUND 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...INDICATING STRONG TO SEVERE HAILERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN FORM. HOWEVER...UNSURE ON HOW WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE GIVEN THE CONVECTION-SUPPRESSING AFFECTS OF MID/UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY BE A REASON WHY THE LATEST HRRR AND KF NAM STRUGGLE IN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. AGAIN...HIGHEST POTENTIAL MAY REMAIN OVER CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS AND POINTS NORTH. NEVERTHELESS...HELD ONTO MODEST CHANCE POPS GIVEN STRENGTH OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT. ANTICIPATING ACTIVITY TO FESTER MUCH OF THU MORNING EAST OF I-135...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE FLINT HILLS. ADK .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 OTHERWISE...BUILDING MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...AND ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL SUMMER HEAT TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED HIT-AND-MISS AFTERNOON-EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FRI-SAT...AS ECMWF HINTS AT SUBTLE WEAKNESSES PROGRESSING OVER THE AREA...BUT THINKING THIS THREAT WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED. OTHERWISE...WITH GFS ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF BUILDING RIDGE INTO EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ABOVE NORMAL SUMMER HEAT IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S WILL PREVAIL REGIONWIDE...WARMEST GENERALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF KS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S ALL AREAS. ADK && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE INTO THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW 30S. SPEEDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES AFTER 20-21Z. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP AFTER 09-10Z ALONG AND WEST OF I-135 AND DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MAINTAINED VCTS AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MWM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 70 90 73 95 / 40 40 10 10 HUTCHINSON 69 93 73 96 / 40 30 10 10 NEWTON 68 88 73 94 / 40 50 10 10 ELDORADO 69 87 72 92 / 40 40 10 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 70 89 73 93 / 30 40 10 10 RUSSELL 68 97 73 98 / 40 10 10 10 GREAT BEND 68 97 72 97 / 30 10 10 10 SALINA 70 91 74 96 / 50 50 10 10 MCPHERSON 69 91 73 96 / 40 50 10 10 COFFEYVILLE 69 85 73 91 / 30 40 10 10 CHANUTE 68 84 72 90 / 30 40 10 10 IOLA 68 84 71 90 / 30 40 10 10 PARSONS-KPPF 69 84 73 90 / 30 40 10 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$