Expires:No;;250542
FZUS63 KDTX 241603
GLFSC 
THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT ORIGINATED OVER PORTIONS OF 
SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA YESTERDAY EVENING IS CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH 
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM IS ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF 
AN ENHANCED LOW TO MIDLEVEL THETA E PLUME/INSTABILITY AXIS AND IS 
ALSO TIED TO THE LEFT NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET STRUCTURE. A MIDLEVEL 
BELT OF WESTERLIES WITHIN THE 5-17 KFT RANGE HAS SPREAD INTO 
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN IN ADVANCE OF THIS COMPLEX...SENDING 
EFFECTIVE/0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 40 TO 50 
KNOTS. WHILE ADG/TTF/DUH ALL SUGGEST THAT AN ATTEMPT AT DIURNAL 
RECOVERY IS ONGOING...TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA REMAIN 
MIRED IN THE 70S WITH ONGOING CONVECTION RAPIDLY WEAKENING. 
THEREFORE...SIGNS POINT TO REDUCED SEVERE RISK THROUGH AT LEAST THE 
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE MORE PRISTINE INSTABILITY AXIS...ML 
CAPES OVER 2000 J/KG...SQUASHED DOWN INTO PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND 
OHIO.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST IS WHETHER THE ATMOSPHERE CAN 
DESTABILIZE APPRECIABLY LATER TODAY. THE BIG SUPPORTER FOR 
WIDESPREAD DESTABILIZATION WILL ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF OUTSTANDING 
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ARE 
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER THIS 
AFTERNOON AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...SHOULD WITNESS A 
SLIGHT BACKING OF THE WIND PROFILE WHICH WILL ELICIT A NORTHWARD 
ADVECTION OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. WILL IT BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW 
FOR WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...THAT REMAINS 
TO BE SEEN. CLOUDS ARE ALSO THINNING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE 
AREA...WHERE MUCAPES ARE SNEAKING ABOVE 1000 J/KG. SO...OUT OF 
RESPECT FOR THE DYNAMICS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE LATER TODAY...AND THE 
GENERAL WARM SECTOR THAT REMAINS OVERHEAD...PREFERENCE IS TO MONITOR 
TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING ANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THE 
FORECAST/HWO. IT APPEARS...ALL IT WILL TAKE IS A FEW HOURS OF SOLID 
INSOLATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT 
OF SEVERE WEATHER.