Expires:No;;165321
FPUS52 KKEY 181434
ZFPKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1033 AM EDT THU OCT 18 2012
.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
EARLY VISIBLE PHOTOGRAPHS SHOW SKIES RANGING FROM MOSTLY SUNNY IN 
THE UPPER KEYS TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A SHORT WAVE JUST EAST OF THE NORTHWEST 
BAHAMAS WITH A VORTICITY SHEAR LOBE LYING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH 
FLORIDA AND OUR REGION...WHILE MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER 
DISPLAYS AROUND 2.0 INCHES ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA. SURFACE WISE...A 
WEAK WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LIES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS SOUTH OF 
THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH A SUBTLE TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS NORTH 
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. 
ACROSS OUR MARINE DISTRICT...C-MAN STATION PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS 
INDICATE SOUTHEAST WINDS OF NEAR 10 KNOTS EXCEPT NEAR SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...OUR MORNING SOUNDING REVEALS ABOVE NORMAL 
MOISTURE (PWAT 1.96 INCHES) WITHIN A VEERING...ALBEIT MODEST  
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW REACHING WELL INTO THE TROPOSPHERE. 
DESPITE ABOUT 1 DEGREE C WARMING UP TO 600 MB...COOLING OF AROUND 2 
DEGREES C HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH LITTLE IN THE 
WAY OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION EVIDENT.     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
GIVEN PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE...A BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A NEARBY SHEAR LOBE COMBINED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC 
LIFT WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR CHANCE POPS INTO AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON 
HOURS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 
MID TO UPPER 80S WITH MOSTLY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 MPH OR LESS AWAY 
FROM ANY PRECIPITATION. HENCE...WILL UPDATE THE PUBLIC ZONE FORECAST 
TO REMOVE TRANSITIONAL WORDING.  
&&
.MARINE...
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OUR REGION WILL LIE ON THE 
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE RESULTING IN 
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE BALANCE OF 
TODAY. 
&&
.AVIATION...
A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT MARATHON LATE THIS 
MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IF A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/TSTMS 
MOVING IN FROM THE LOWER KEYS HOLDS TOGETHER. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR 
CONDITIONS AT KEY WEST AND MARATHON THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO 
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.   
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...APA 
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................MR
DATA ACQUISITION.....................MP
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST