Expires:No;;972389
FPUS54 KLZK 070912
ZFPLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
410 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA NOTED ACRS MUCH OF THE FA THIS MRNG. THE 
ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING AHEAD OF A LONG WV TROF LOCATED OVR THE 
PLAINS STATES. A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS HAVE BEEN NOTED...ALONG WITH 
LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL. KPBF HAS SEEN ALMOST THREE AND A HALF INCHES 
OF RAINFALL SINCE 2 AM.
UPR TROF WL CONT TO SHIFT EWD THRU THE REGION OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS. 
THE MODELS STILL INDC SOME DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH SPEED OF EWD 
PROGRESSION AND EVEN FORM A CUTOFF LOW JUST E OF THE FA WED. WL CONT 
TO TREND TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT NAM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTION TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT LATER THIS MRNG IN 
AREAL COVERAGE...BUT WL KEEP LIKELY/UNQUALIFIED POPS GOING. 
ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT AS ASSOCD 
CDFNT WORKS THRU AR. PRECIP SHLD DIMINISH LATER TNGT FM W TO E AS 
UPR TROF AXIS WORKS THRU THE FA.
CLOUDS WL BE DCRSG FM THE W LATE TNGT/EARLY WED...WITH DRY CONDS 
EXPECTED. WEAK RDG OF HIGH PRES WL SETTLE OVR THE REGION FOR THE 
REST OF THE PD.
&&
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MODELS SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING IN RELATION TO 
THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE BUILDING 
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. 
THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST FOR SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING DRY 
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS 
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE 
STATE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. KEPT FORECAST DRY THROUGH 
MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH 
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 
60S.  
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...60