Expires:No;;851276
FPUS55 KGJT 131053
ZFPGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
453 AM MDT TUE OCT 13 2009
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTING VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE...AND
ACCOMPANYING 90KT JET...MOVING OVER REGION THIS MORNING CAUSING
OCCNL RUMBLE OF THUNDER...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN ZONES.  A FEW SITES
ALSO REPORTING LGT RAIN WITH ELEVATIONS ABV 12K FT REPORTING LGT
SNOW.
FOR TODAY...GOOD AGREEMENT BTWN MODELS FOR PRECIP ACROSS CO AS
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER REGION. INCD POPS FOR ISOLD
RAINSHOWERS FOR ENTIRE CWA...EXCEPT SERN UT WHERE ANY PRECIP WILL BE
OVER EARLY THIS MORNING...DECREASING FROM W TO E AS DAY PROGRESSES.
ALSO INCLUDED ISOLD TSTMS OVER CEN/SAN JUAN MTNS THRU NOON AS
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE RISK FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...AND
ONE OR TWO RUMBLES SHOULD BE IT.  HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS EXPECTED
OVER SAN JUANS/CENT MTNS THIS MORNING WITH SOME NEW SNOW POSSIBLE
ABOVE 10K FT...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO...WITH RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE EARLY THIS AFTN AS FINAL SHOT OF ENERGY
QUICKLY EXITS CWA THOUGH DO EXPECT STRAY SHOWERS OVER MOUNTAINS
THROUGH EVENING HRS.  OVERNIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY CALM AS NEXT STORM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
ON WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER OUR AREA IN THE
MORNING CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT FROM SW TO NW.  WITH WIND SHIFT...
FAVORABLE PRECIP AREAS WILL MOVE TO NRN AREAS AND NWRN SIDES OF
MTNS.  MOST PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEEING
MORE SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...AN INCH OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
ONCE FRONT HAS MOVED TO OUR EAST BY WED NIGHT...FAVORABLE WINDFLOW
WILL CONTINUE SNOWSHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN UNTIL FINALLY ENDING
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US AND HELPS TO PUSH THE JET
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS NORTHWEST AS THE
GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER
THE NORTH AND NORTHCENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN CO. SKIES WILL CLEAR
WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
PATTERN REMAINS DRY AS THE RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFIES AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS
EAST AND THEN OVERHEAD SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST OF THE DIVIDE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO TAP SOME MOISTURE. THE GRADIENT ALOFT
ALSO TIGHTENS WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO INCREASED WINDS AT THE
SURFACE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVE OUT IN FRONT OF
THE MAIN TROUGH WHICH MAKES LANDFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH ENTERS EASTERN UTAH.
&&
.AVIATION...
CIGS AND VIS WILL BE DROPPING IN RAINSHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS PRESENCE FELT.  ANTICIPATE
CIGS WILL STAY ABOVE 3K FT BUT HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD DROP VIS TO 3
MILES...SO MVFR QUITE POSSIBLE.  KEGE AND KASE ALSO HAVE CHANCE TO
SEE SOME TSRA THIS MORNING AS OROGRAPHIC LIFT LENDS ITSELF TO BRIEF
FORMATION THIS MORNING.  ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE VERY BRIEF
IN NATURE AND SOME GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.  MAIN
CONCERN TODAY IS SAN JUAN AND CENTRAL MTNS...TO INCLUDE KEGE AND
KASE...WITH POSSIBLE SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS DROPPING VIS TO
MVFR...AND OCCASSIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS.  BY EARLY AFTN...CONDITIONS
SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AS DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
$$
SHORT TERM.....TGR
LONG TERM......AS
AVIATION.......TGR