ABPW10 PGTW 210600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/210600Z-220600ZMAY2012//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.4N
146.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 146.6E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONSOLIDATION
OF CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A 202345Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS SHOWED THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE
LLCC WITH 10-15 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER AND 15-20 KNOTS OVER THE
NORTHERN QUADRANT. THE LATEST AMSU (210316Z AND 202345Z) AND SSMIS
(202256Z) IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF MASS WITHIN THE
OVERALL ROTATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION PROVIDES AS THE BEST
POSSIBLE AREA TO TRACK A LLCC. MULTIPLE MESOVORTICES ARE CLEARLY
EVIDENT IN MSI AND RADAR VELOCITIES. THEREFORE, THE CURRENT BEST
TRACK HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED TO BETTER REFLECT THE CENTROID OF
ROTATION. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED DURING THE PAST
24 HOURS, AS EVIDENT IN THE PGTW 210000Z UPPER-LEVEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF GUAM HAS
CONTINUED TO MIGRATE WESTWARD AND THE DIVERGENT SIDE OF THE TUTT
CELL IS NOW ENHANCING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW OF THE DISTURBANCE.
ADDITIONALLY, AN IMPROVEMENT IN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS OCCURRED
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE LOCATED JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. OUTFLOW TO THE EAST INTO A TUTT CELL NEAR
THE DATELINE ALSO REMAINS ROBUST. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LLCC WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IF THE CURRENT TREND OF
CONSOLIDATION CONTINUES THEN WARNING CRITERIA (25 KNOTS) SHOULD BE
MET SHORTLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//