ACUS48 KWNS 070854
SWOD48
SPC AC 070853
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT SUN SEP 07 2008
VALID 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH DAY 5 /THU.
9-11/...EJECTING AN UPPER TROUGH OUT OF NEW ENGLAND DAY 4...AND THEN
BRINGING A SERIES OF WEAKER TROUGHS ENEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS/THE
GREAT LAKES DAYS 4 AND 5 AHEAD OF A STRONGER/WRN U.S. TROUGH. 
BEYOND DAY 5...MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE...LIMITING ANY FORECAST
CONFIDENCE TO DAYS 4-5.
A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT COULD EXIST ACROSS THE PLAINS DAY 4 AS A
WEAK FRONT/LEE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS IN CONJUNCTION WITH ONE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK TROUGHS CROSSING THE PLAINS. 
HOWEVER...WITH NELY WINDS FORECAST ACROSS THE WRN GULF /ON WRN
FRINGE OF HURRICANE IKE/...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT.  AS THE UPPER FEATURE SHIFTS ENEWD TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES DAY 5...LITTLE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT.
ATTM...FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THAT IKE WILL APPROACH THE WRN GULF
COAST REGION SOMETIME IN THE DAY 6-7 TIME FRAME -- WITH SOME TORNADO
THREAT LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AS IT NEARS LANDFALL SHOULD
IT MAINTAIN T.S./HURRICANE INTENSITY.  HOWEVER...WILL NOT INTRODUCE
ANY THREAT AREAS ATTM.
..GOSS.. 09/07/2008