ACUS48 KWNS 270904
SWOD48
SPC AC 270903
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009
VALID 301200Z - 051200Z
...DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WILL REMAIN TIED
TO SRN STREAM UPPER LOW /FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE SRN ROCKIES
THIS WEEKEND/ AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.  ECMWF AND GFS BOTH LIFT THE SYSTEM QUICKLY ENEWD
ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS/SERN
U.S. BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE GFS BEING APPROXIMATELY 12 HR
FASTER.  SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST WEDNESDAY /DAY 6/.  THE ECMWF LIFTS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW
MORE NNEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER
LOW...WHILE GFS MAINTAINS A MORE ENEWD TRACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. 
REGARDLESS...APPEARS SOME GRADUAL RECOVER WILL OCCUR OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND PERHAPS SUPPORT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
INTO THE CENTRAL/NERN GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF PRIMARY SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FOR DAY 6-7.  HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING BOTH QUALITY OF PRECEDING AIR
MASS/INSTABILITY AND WITH TIMING AND TRACK OF ENSUING SURFACE
FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SRN STREAM SYSTEM TO WARRANT A
RISK AREA ATTM.
..EVANS.. 11/27/2009