AGNT40 KWNM 251816
MIMATN
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN 
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
216 PM EDT SAT 25 MAY 2013 
.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT 
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N. 
37 KT SHIP REPORT OVER BALT CNYN TO HAGUE LINE WATERS IN GLF 
STREAM AT 15Z APPEARS AS GOOD OB EVEN GIVEN SHIPS MEAN WIND 
SPEED ERROR AROUND +5 KT. THIS MEAN ERROR COULD BE PARTIALLY DUE 
TO THE NUMMEROUS OBS TAKEN OVER GLF STREAM OVER 117 OB HISTORY. 
12Z MDLS ARE IN ABOVE AVG AGREEMENT OVER THE W ATLC THRU THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. PREVIOUSLY FORECAST GLWS LOOK ON TARGET TO 
EXTEND TNGT AND INTO EARLY SUN AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO 
CONSOLIDATE OFF NEW ENGL COAST. OVER THE NEAR TERM THE 12Z GFS 
LOOKS ACCEPTABLE AND SEEMS TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON W TO 
NW GALES. MDLS IN AGREEMENT THEN THAT UPPER LOW SHUD KICK NE SUN 
NGT TO PSN NEAR GLF OF ST LAWRENCE BY MON MORNING. ASSOC L/W 
UPPER TROF SHUD SHIFT E OF OFFSHORE WATERS TO NR 60W TUE INTO 
WED...WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE BECOMING PREDOMINANT 
FEATURE OVER ERN SEABOARD/WRN ATLC TUE THRU THU. AS SFC RIDGE 
PERSISTS OVER CTNRL AND SRN MID ATLC WATERS NEXT WEEK...12Z 
GFS/UKMET AND 00Z ECMWF ALL INDICATE WARM FRNT SHUD PASS THRU 
NRN MID ATLC/NEW ENGL WATERS WED INTO THU...AND INTRODUCE 
INCREASING S TO SW WINDS... WITH 00Z ECMWF SFC WINDS STRONGER 
THAN 12Z GFS 10M WINDS. 12Z UKMET OFFERS DECENT COMPROMISE AND 
BY BLENDING GFS/ECMWF...WILL ARRIVE AT A SOLUTION CLOSE TO 
UKMET. THAT IS UP TO 25 KT NEW ENGL WATERS WED INTO THU.       
12Z MULTIGRID WAVEWATCH III LOOKS OK THRU FORECAST PERIOD...AND 
IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 00Z ECMWF WAVE MDL. 
EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A. 
.WARNINGS/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...PRELIMINARY. ANY CHANGES WILL BE 
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: 
.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS... 
.GULF OF MAINE...NONE. 
.GEORGES BANK...GALE TNGT INTO SUN...MDT TO HI CONFDC. 
.SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...GALE TNGT INTO SUN...MDT TO HI CONFDC. 
.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS... 
.HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...GALE TNGT INTO SUN...MDT TO 
HI CONFDC. 
.BALTIMORE CANYON TO HAGUE LINE...GALE TNGT INTO SUN...HI CONFDC.
.BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...NONE. 
.HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...NONE. 
.CAPE FEAR TO 31N...NONE. 
$$ 
.FORECASTER CLARK. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.