AGPN40 KWNM 180340
MIMPAC
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
840 PM PDT MON JUN 17 2013
.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.
AT 18/0000Z LOW PRES 1010 MB JUST W OF THE WASH WTRS HAS A TROF
STRETCHNG SW. HGH PRES 1029 MB CNTRD 780 NM W OF NRN CA WTRS HAS A
ITS RIDGE XTNDG ACRS THE ENTIRE CA WTRS. AN INLAND LOW PRES 1008
MB OVR WRN WAS/OREG STATES HAS A CLD FRNT STRECHNG SW INTO THE NRN
CA STATE. ANOTHR INLAND LOW PRES 1003 MB OVR AZ HAS A TROF XTNDG
NW ACRS CA STATE. THE PRES GRDNT IS QUITE TIGHT NR THE COASTAL
WTRS AND THERE IS A SHIP OB OF 35 KT. THE NDBC BOUY 46028 CAPE SAN
MARTIN HAD WINDS GUSTING TO 29 KT. THE LAST ASCAT PASS AT 1800Z
HAD NO WINDS ABOVE 25 KT. THE SEAS ARE ONLY REACHING 10 FT OVR THE
ERN PARTS OF THE SRN WTRS. THE LAST SGWH SWATH AT 1902Z MISSED THE
REGION WITH OBSVD HGH SEAS AND SO IT HAD NO SEAS ABOVE 6 FT OVR
THE REGION. THE NWW3 MULTI-GRID WV MDL FITS FAIRLY WELL WITH THE
OBSVD SEAS PATTERN AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE ECMWFWAVE AND SO WILL
STAY CLOSE TO IT FOR THIS UPFADTE. THE GLBL MDLS HV EQUALLY
INITIALIZED WELL ON THE FEW SYNOP FEATURES THAT ARE AFFECTING THE
WX OVR THE REGION. THE MDLS ARE IN DECENT AGRMNT ON THE SHORT TERM
MVNT AND POSN OF THE HGH PRES WITH ITS RIDGE ACRS THE REGION. THE
HGH PRES CNTR WILL MV S AS IT WEAKENS WHILE THE LOW PRES W OF THE
NRN WTRS WILL MV E ACRS THE NRN WTRS. THE PRES GRDNT WILL WILL
REMAIN TIGHT OVR THE ERN PARTS OF THE SRN WTRS AS THE INLAND LOW P
RES TROF PERSISTS. THE ATMOS WILL REMAIN QUITE STABLE OVR MOST OF
THE REGION XCEPT FOR SOME UNSTBLE AIRMAS ASSOCTD WITH THE LOW PRES
OVR THE NRN WTRS. THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY OVR THE NRN WTR S WILL
ONLY PRODUCE SCT SHWRS. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONGER E OF THE WTRS.
OTHERWISE WILL STAY CLOSE TO GFS FOR THE WINDS UPDATE.
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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOK GOOD WITH THE ONLY
EVENT ARISING FROM THE SMALL AREA OF BRIEF GALES OVER THE PZ06
WTRS LATE TUE AND WED...A RESULT OF OF THE A HI WELL W OF PZ06
WTRS WILL BUILDING E OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND INTERACTING WITH
THE THERMAL TROF OVER THE SW.
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS SET TO MOVE INTO THE NRN WTRS AROUND THE
WEEKEND...WITH DIFFERING SOLUTIONS BETWEEN THE UKMET/GFS/ECMWF.
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS FOR THE ADDED DAY FIVE GRIDS
IF ONLY TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS AS
MODELS CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. IN ANY CASE...IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT THERE WILL BE ANY WARNABLE WIND EVENTS OVER THE WTRS ATTM.
SEAS...THE MULTIGRID WWIII AND ECMWF WV GUID LOOK SMLR INIT AND 
THRU THE PD WITH MINOR DIFFS. 
EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A. 
.WARNINGS/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...PRELIMINARY. ANY CHANGES WILL BE 
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:
.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE LOOKOUT...NONE.
.CAPE LOOKOUT TO PT ST GEORGE...NONE.
.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
.PT ST GEORGE TO PT ARENA...NONE.
.PT ARENA TO PT CONCEPTION...GALE WED...MDT CNFDC.
.PT CONCEPTION TO GUADALUPE ISLAND...GALE TUE INTO
WED...MDT CONFDC. $$
.FORECASTER MUSONDA/LEE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.