AXAU01 ADRM 282003
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 2002 UTC 28/04/2009
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily
Identifier: 23U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 5.5S
Longitude: 133.2E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west [270 deg]
Speed of Movement: 1 knots [2 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1006 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 64-knot winds:    
Radius of Maximum Winds: 
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/2.0/W1.0/24HRS
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 29/0600:  5.4S 132.8E:     060 [110]:  025  [045]: 1007
+24: 29/1800:  5.6S 132.0E:     090 [165]:  025  [045]: 1007
+36: 30/0600:  6.2S 131.2E:     120 [225]:  030  [055]: 1005
+48: 30/1800:  7.0S 130.4E:     155 [285]:  030  [055]: 1005
+60: 01/0600:  7.6S 129.9E:     200 [375]:  025  [045]: 1007
+72: 01/1800:  8.2S 129.5E:     250 [465]:  020  [035]: 1009
REMARKS:
Ex-TC Kirrily has continued to weaken during the past 6 hours. The latest
position fix is based on an exposed LLCC evident in near-IR and microwave
images. The system continues to be affected by moderate northeasterly wind shear
and deep convection has become increasingly disorganised. Dvorak DT 1.5 based on
shear pattern with a poorly organised, exposed LLCC. MET=PAT=1.5 but FT held at
2.0.
The LLCC has been nearly stationary for the past few hours and recent microwave
images indicate that the mid-level centre is displaced to its southwest. Most
NWP model forecasts indicate further shearing of the mid-level centre away from
the weak LLCC. Forecast movement of a shallow LLCC is towards the west under the
influence of a ridge to the south. If the low becomes more vertically organised,
mid-level steering may move it towards the southwest and into a slightly more
favourable environment with reduced vertical wind shear. However, even if the
low deepens, it is unlikely to reach TC intensity within the next 2 days. 
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it reintensifies.