FGUS63 KMSR 171948 ESGTMN TRIBUTARIES TO THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH IN MINNESOTA LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 248 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 4/23/2013 - 7/22/2013 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :South Branch Buffalo River SABM5 12.0 15.0 19.0 >95 45 >95 <5 <5 <5 :Buffalo River HWYM5 7.0 9.0 11.0 >95 32 >95 12 12 <5 DILM5 12.0 20.0 26.0 >95 59 >95 11 12 <5 :Wild Rice River TWVM5 10.0 12.0 14.0 93 6 61 <5 40 <5 HNDM5 20.0 28.0 32.0 >95 38 >95 11 66 <5 :Marsh River SHYM5 14.0 20.0 23.0 >95 14 58 <5 12 <5 :Sand Hill River CLXM5 20.0 25.0 30.0 >95 9 >95 6 50 <5 :Red Lake River HIGM5 12.0 12.5 13.0 75 19 71 14 59 9 CRKM5 15.0 23.0 25.0 >95 48 58 9 27 6 :Snake River MKLM5 67.0 71.0 76.0 48 12 9 <5 <5 <5 ALVM5 106.0 108.0 110.0 71 12 35 11 6 <5 :Two Rivers River HLLM5 802.0 806.0 810.0 >95 46 >95 24 19 <5 :Roseau River ROSM5 16.0 18.0 19.0 61 16 35 6 22 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 0416 Z DH12 /DC1304161948/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : : Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 4/23/2013 - 7/22/2013 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :South Branch Buffalo River SABM5 17.2/ 17.3/ 17.5/ 17.9/ 18.3/ 18.8/ 18.8 :Buffalo River HWYM5 9.7/ 9.8/ 9.9/ 10.3/ 10.7/ 11.1/ 11.6 DILM5 24.1/ 24.1/ 24.4/ 24.8/ 25.5/ 26.1/ 26.3 :Wild Rice River TWVM5 10.0/ 10.3/ 11.1/ 13.0/ 14.5/ 15.8/ 16.5 HNDM5 31.5/ 31.5/ 31.8/ 32.5/ 33.2/ 33.5/ 34.1 :Marsh River SHYM5 18.3/ 18.4/ 19.3/ 20.2/ 21.6/ 23.6/ 24.4 :Sand Hill River CLXM5 27.6/ 27.8/ 28.9/ 30.3/ 32.2/ 34.0/ 35.8 :Red Lake River HIGM5 10.7/ 11.6/ 12.2/ 13.5/ 14.5/ 15.1/ 15.5 CRKM5 21.6/ 21.8/ 22.5/ 23.7/ 25.1/ 26.0/ 27.3 :Snake River MKLM5 66.1/ 66.2/ 66.3/ 66.7/ 68.2/ 71.0/ 73.2 ALVM5 105.5/ 105.6/ 105.9/ 107.2/ 108.4/ 109.7/ 110.1 :Two Rivers River HLLM5 807.7/ 807.9/ 808.1/ 808.9/ 809.8/ 811.6/ 812.4 :Roseau River ROSM5 14.0/ 14.1/ 14.8/ 16.3/ 18.7/ 20.8/ 21.6 .END :Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. $$