FGUS73 KLOT 011942 ESFLOT ILC007-011-031-037-063-075-089-091-093-097-099-103-105-111- 141-197-201-INC073-089-111-127-022000- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 241 PM CDT WED MAY 01 2013 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. ...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 5/7/2013 - 8/5/2013 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL : CHANCES OF EXCEEDING : FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE (%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :HART DITCH DYER 12.0 13.0 14.0 : 6 6 6 6 <5 <5 :THORN CREEK THORNTON 10.0 15.0 16.0 : 29 23 <5 <5 <5 <5 :LITTLE CALUMET RIVER MUNSTER 12.0 14.0 17.0 : 37 36 24 23 11 11 SOUTH HOLLAND 16.5 18.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :KANKAKEE RIVER DUNNS BRIDGE 10.0 12.0 13.0 : 8 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 KOUTS 11.0 13.0 14.0 : 11 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 SHELBY 9.0 11.0 12.5 : 50 52 13 14 8 6 MOMENCE 5.0 6.5 9.0 : 24 21 14 11 8 <5 :IROQUOIS RIVER RENSSELAER 12.0 14.0 15.0 : 27 21 8 6 6 <5 FORESMAN 18.0 22.0 24.0 : 21 16 <5 <5 <5 <5 IROQUOIS 18.0 24.0 25.0 : 41 29 9 6 6 <5 :SUGAR CREEK MILFORD 18.0 22.0 26.0 : 67 52 16 9 <5 <5 :IROQUOIS RIVER CHEBANSE 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 14 13 6 <5 <5 <5 :KANKAKEE RIVER WILMINGTON 6.5 8.0 10.0 : 21 13 6 6 <5 <5 :DES PLAINES RIVER RUSSELL 7.0 9.0 10.0 : 29 19 <5 <5 <5 <5 GURNEE 7.0 9.0 11.0 : 16 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 LINCOLNSHIRE 12.5 14.0 15.5 : 11 8 6 <5 <5 <5 DES PLAINES 5.0 8.0 9.0 : 13 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 RIVERSIDE 7.0 8.0 9.0 : 14 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 LEMONT 10.0 11.0 12.0 : 24 18 9 6 <5 <5 :W BR DU PAGE RIVER WARRENVILLE 11.5 14.5 17.5 : 18 16 <5 <5 <5 <5 :EAST BRANCH DU PAGE RIVER BOLINGBROOK 19.5 21.0 23.0 : 50 42 13 9 <5 <5 :DU PAGE RIVER SHOREWOOD 6.5 8.0 10.0 : 18 14 <5 <5 <5 <5 :MAZON RIVER COAL CITY 12.0 14.0 17.0 : 18 13 <5 <5 <5 <5 :FOX RIVER ALGONQUIN TAILWAT 9.5 10.5 12.0 : 45 27 27 13 14 11 MONTGOMERY 13.0 14.0 15.0 : 42 23 8 <5 <5 <5 DAYTON 12.0 14.0 24.0 : 31 21 14 6 <5 <5 :VERMILION RIVER PONTIAC 14.0 15.0 18.0 : 16 11 9 8 <5 <5 LEONORE 16.0 21.0 26.0 : 23 19 8 6 <5 <5 :PECATONICA RIVER SHIRLAND 12.0 14.0 15.5 : 36 19 19 6 13 <5 :ROCK RIVER ROCKTON 10.0 11.0 14.0 : 36 13 21 11 11 <5 LATHAM PARK 10.0 11.0 14.0 : 23 11 14 9 11 <5 ROCKFORD 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :KISHWAUKEE RIVER BELVIDERE 9.0 10.0 12.0 : 9 8 8 6 6 <5 :SOUTH BRANCH KISHWAUKEE RIVER DE KALB 10.0 11.0 12.5 : 9 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :KISHWAUKEE RIVER PERRYVILLE 12.0 18.0 22.0 : 29 19 <5 <5 <5 <5 :ROCK RIVER BYRON 13.0 14.0 16.0 : 26 13 8 <5 6 <5 DIXON 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 16 11 11 8 6 <5 :NORTH BRANCH CHICAGO RIVER CHICAGO ALBANY AV 7.0 7.5 8.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :ILLINOIS RIVER MORRIS 16.0 18.0 22.0 : 32 21 21 14 8 6 OTTAWA 463.0 466.0 469.0 : 27 14 16 11 9 6 LA SALLE 20.0 27.0 31.0 : 55 42 14 11 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. ...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID PERIOD: 5/7/2013 - 8/5/2013 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :HART DITCH DYER 3.0 3.7 4.7 5.7 7.6 8.3 14.1 :THORN CREEK THORNTON 3.7 4.3 6.1 7.6 10.4 12.0 14.5 :LITTLE CALUMET RIVER MUNSTER 8.7 9.3 10.2 11.3 14.0 18.0 20.6 SOUTH HOLLAND 8.1 8.7 10.7 12.1 14.0 15.2 16.2 :KANKAKEE RIVER DUNNS BRIDGE 5.0 5.1 6.3 7.6 8.9 9.9 10.1 KOUTS 6.3 6.3 7.5 8.8 10.1 11.0 11.3 SHELBY 6.7 6.8 7.7 9.0 10.3 11.7 16.1 MOMENCE 2.6 2.6 3.1 3.8 5.3 8.2 10.5 :IROQUOIS RIVER RENSSELAER 5.5 6.0 8.2 10.2 12.2 13.5 17.9 FORESMAN 9.3 10.1 12.7 15.3 17.1 19.2 23.0 IROQUOIS 9.2 9.4 13.4 17.1 21.2 24.3 25.1 :SUGAR CREEK MILFORD 10.2 11.4 17.0 19.4 21.1 23.6 25.1 :IROQUOIS RIVER CHEBANSE 6.9 7.1 9.3 11.7 14.0 17.5 19.0 :KANKAKEE RIVER WILMINGTON 2.8 2.9 3.7 4.9 5.9 7.6 8.9 :DES PLAINES RIVER RUSSELL 3.9 4.3 5.2 6.3 7.1 7.8 8.3 GURNEE 3.3 3.3 3.7 4.7 6.4 7.6 8.8 LINCOLNSHIRE 8.2 8.3 8.8 9.9 11.2 12.7 15.8 DES PLAINES 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.5 3.9 6.2 8.2 RIVERSIDE 3.6 4.1 4.7 5.7 6.6 7.5 7.7 LEMONT 7.3 7.5 8.1 9.1 10.1 11.1 12.0 :W BR DU PAGE RIVER WARRENVILLE 9.1 9.6 10.1 10.6 11.2 12.2 12.7 :EAST BRANCH DU PAGE RIVER BOLINGBROOK 17.2 17.8 18.7 19.6 20.3 21.2 22.2 :DU PAGE RIVER SHOREWOOD 3.5 3.8 4.5 5.4 6.3 7.6 8.1 :MAZON RIVER COAL CITY 4.0 5.6 6.8 8.9 11.8 13.1 13.9 :FOX RIVER ALGONQUIN TAILWAT 8.0 8.0 8.2 9.5 10.7 13.6 15.1 MONTGOMERY 12.3 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.5 13.9 14.3 DAYTON 8.9 9.0 9.4 11.2 12.4 15.0 16.8 :VERMILION RIVER PONTIAC 5.4 5.5 5.9 8.5 11.2 15.5 18.0 LEONORE 9.2 9.3 9.6 12.3 15.5 20.9 25.1 :PECATONICA RIVER SHIRLAND 10.6 10.6 10.6 11.5 13.3 16.0 16.5 :ROCK RIVER ROCKTON 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.5 10.4 15.1 16.3 LATHAM PARK 8.8 8.8 8.8 9.2 9.9 14.0 14.8 ROCKFORD 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.3 7.3 8.4 :KISHWAUKEE RIVER BELVIDERE 3.3 3.4 3.9 5.2 7.2 9.6 12.7 :SOUTH BRANCH KISHWAUKEE RIVER DE KALB 4.5 4.9 5.6 7.2 8.8 10.6 10.8 :KISHWAUKEE RIVER PERRYVILLE 8.0 8.1 8.8 10.1 13.2 15.1 19.4 :ROCK RIVER BYRON 10.7 10.7 10.7 11.3 13.1 16.0 18.6 DIXON 12.3 12.3 12.4 13.2 15.4 18.8 20.3 :NORTH BRANCH CHICAGO RIVER CHICAGO ALBANY AV 3.8 3.9 4.3 5.0 5.8 6.5 6.9 :ILLINOIS RIVER MORRIS 7.1 7.3 9.4 12.8 17.6 21.7 24.2 OTTAWA 459.1 459.2 459.4 461.6 464.4 469.1 471.3 LA SALLE 15.0 15.1 16.8 21.2 24.5 29.5 32.4 IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. ...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID PERIOD: 5/7/2013 - 8/5/2013 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :HART DITCH DYER 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 :THORN CREEK THORNTON 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 :LITTLE CALUMET RIVER MUNSTER 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.9 SOUTH HOLLAND 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 :KANKAKEE RIVER DUNNS BRIDGE 3.8 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.4 KOUTS 5.0 4.6 4.3 4.1 3.8 3.6 3.5 SHELBY 5.4 5.0 4.7 4.4 4.2 3.9 3.8 MOMENCE 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 :IROQUOIS RIVER RENSSELAER 4.1 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.3 3.1 3.0 FORESMAN 6.5 6.2 5.8 5.3 4.9 4.5 4.4 IROQUOIS 6.0 5.6 5.2 4.7 4.3 4.0 3.8 :SUGAR CREEK MILFORD 3.7 3.5 3.0 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 :IROQUOIS RIVER CHEBANSE 3.7 3.6 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.4 :KANKAKEE RIVER WILMINGTON 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 :DES PLAINES RIVER RUSSELL 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 GURNEE 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 LINCOLNSHIRE 6.8 6.7 6.3 6.2 6.0 5.9 5.9 DES PLAINES 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 RIVERSIDE 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 LEMONT 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.1 4.9 4.8 4.7 :W BR DU PAGE RIVER WARRENVILLE 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.4 :EAST BRANCH DU PAGE RIVER BOLINGBROOK 14.8 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 :DU PAGE RIVER SHOREWOOD 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 :MAZON RIVER COAL CITY 2.0 2.0 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 :FOX RIVER ALGONQUIN TAILWAT 5.5 5.4 5.1 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.4 MONTGOMERY 11.3 11.3 11.2 11.1 11.0 11.0 10.9 DAYTON 6.3 6.1 5.7 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.1 :VERMILION RIVER PONTIAC 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 LEONORE 4.4 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.3 3.0 :PECATONICA RIVER SHIRLAND 6.4 5.9 5.4 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.5 :ROCK RIVER ROCKTON 4.6 4.0 3.5 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 LATHAM PARK 5.1 4.6 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.8 ROCKFORD 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 :KISHWAUKEE RIVER BELVIDERE 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 :SOUTH BRANCH KISHWAUKEE RIVER DE KALB 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 :KISHWAUKEE RIVER PERRYVILLE 6.1 6.1 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.4 :ROCK RIVER BYRON 6.8 6.4 5.9 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.2 DIXON 9.1 8.8 8.4 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.8 :NORTH BRANCH CHICAGO RIVER CHICAGO ALBANY AV 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 :ILLINOIS RIVER MORRIS 5.2 5.1 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.6 OTTAWA 458.6 458.6 458.5 458.5 458.5 458.5 458.5 LA SALLE 11.5 11.4 11.0 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.6 THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE. VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/LOT FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER INFORMATION. THESE MONTHLY OUTLOOKS ARE TYPICALLY ISSUED DURING THE THIRD OR FOURTH WEEK OF THE MONTH. $$