FGUS75 KSLC 071941
ESFSLC
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAH
WATER SUPPLY SUMMARY
1245 PM MST THU MAR 7 2013
                      ...UTAH FLOOD POTENTIAL...
                    STATE OF UTAH GENERAL OUTLOOK
THE THREAT OF FLOODING FOR UTAH IS CURRENTLY LOW. SNOWPACKS ARE 
BELOW NORMAL STATEWIDE.  HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A SLIM CHANCE THAT 
A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT DURING PEAK FLOW TIME COULD ENHANCE RIVER 
FLOWS TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE...BUT THIS SCENARIO IS NOT LIKELY.
THE RUNOFF PROCESS IS BASED ON THREE ASPECTS.  FIRST...FALL 
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DETERMINE THE SOIL MOISTURE.  BELOW NORMAL 
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE RECEIVED THIS PAST FALL ACROSS SOUTHERN 
UTAH...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AMOUNTS OBSERVED ACROSS 
THE NORTH. CONSEQUENTLY...SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH 
ARE NEAR NORMAL...WITH DRY SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS LOCATED ACROSS 
THE SOUTH...MOST PRONOUNCED IN THE SOUTHEAST DRAINAGES OF THE 
STATE.  NOWHERE IN UTAH ARE SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS ABOVE NORMAL. 
THE SECOND PART OF THE EQUATION COMES IN THE FORM OF SNOWFALL.  IT 
IS IMPORTANT TO ACCUMULATE SNOW DURING THE COURSE OF THE WINTER AND 
INTO EARLY SPRING.  THIS YEARS SNOWPACK IS LACKING AND BELOW 
AVERAGE...WITH CURRENT SNOWPACKS NEARLY 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL 
STATEWIDE.
THE THIRD ASPECT OF THE EQUATION COMES IN THE FORM OF SPRING 
WEATHER.  IF WE EXPERIENCE A COOL...WET SPRING...RUNOFF 
EFFICIENCY WILL BE VERY GOOD...WHILE ON THE OTHER HAND IF WE HAVE A 
DRY AND WARM SPRING WITH SNOWMELT OCCURRING EARLIER...LESS WATER 
WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE RESERVOIRS.
WITH THAT SAID...THE FLOOD THREAT IS LOW FOR THE 2013 RUNOFF 
SEASON.  PERIODS OF INTENSE RAINFALL MAY EXACERBATE THE RUNOFF 
PROCESS AND PRODUCE LOCALIZED SHORT TERM FLOODING...BUT THESE EVENTS 
ARE RARE.
THIS OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED AS WE MOVE INTO THE SPRING MONTHS.
$$
MCINERNEY