FLUS43 KTOP 032340
AFPTOP
AREA WEATHER UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
640 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
...WARNING DECISION UPDATE...
CURRENTLY MONITORING STRONG CELL IN CLOUD COUNTY. STORM HAS A
HISTORY OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND A RECENT GIST TO 58 MPH WAS
NOTED AT CONCORDIA KS.
THERMODYNAMIC VARIABLES SHOW DECENT INSTABILITY ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY...VERY NEAR THE KS/NE SATE
LINE. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG NOTED. LATEST RUC
ANALYSIS WOULD HINT THE STORMS ARE NOT COMPLETELY ROOTED IN THE
SURFACE LAYER YET. BOTH REPORTS FROM CHASERS AND LIVE VIDEO HAVE
INDICATED SOME WALL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT DOESN'T LAST LONG. AS
THE STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...THEY ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO
BECOME SURFACE BASED. THEY HAVE GOT TO BE CLOSE NOW.
FACTORS WORKING AGAINST TORNADO THREAT ARE LOCATION OF THE STORMS
SOUTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...AND OBSERVATIONS OF VERY STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS. HAVEN'T NOTICED OUTFLOW CUTTING STORMS OFF AS OF YET...BUT
THIS IS A POSSIBILITY. CIRRUS SHIELDS ARE ALSO REDUCING SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY IN AREAS EAST OF CURRENT STORMS.
FACTORS WORKING FOR TORNADO THREAT ARE BACKED SURFACE WINDS IN
VCNTY OF FRONT AND T/TD SPREADS SHOW RELATIVELY LOW CLOUD
BASES. CHASER LIVE VIDEO CONFIRMS THIS AS WELL. 0 TO 6 KM WIND
SHEAR VALUES AT AROUND 40 KNOTS KEEP SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.
PLAN IS TO CONTINUE TO EVALUATE TORNADO THREAT AND ALSO MONITOR
FLASH FLOOD THREAT AS STORMS ARE PRODUCING 1.5 TO 2 INCH/HOUR
PRECIP RATES. 
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HARDING