FNUS53 KAPX 242104 FWFAPX FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 404 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009 ...LAST FORECAST FOR THE SEASON... .DISCUSSION...A MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN LIFT INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BEFORE ADDITIONAL RAIN SWEEPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN THANKSGIVING DAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE LAST FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE SEASON...UNLESS ANOTHER DRY WARM PERIOD SHOWS UP. SPOT FORECASTS ARE WELCOME THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. MIZ016-017-019-021>023-250930- EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY COUNTIES- 404 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). AREAS OF DRIZZLE UNTIL 0100. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 0100. AREAS OF FOG AFTER 1900. MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43. 24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER. MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT WETTER ALONG THE COAST. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 16 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........POOR (80). MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.15 IN. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG UNTIL 1300. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....46-51. 24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER. MIN HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT. 24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........GOOD (550). MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 18 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. PCPN AMOUNT.........0.15-0.38 IN. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL 1900...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE. MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42. 24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER. MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT. 24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........FAIR (200). MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 15 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN. .THANKSGIVING DAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE UNTIL 0700...THEN RAIN LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....41-46. 24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER. MIN HUMIDITY........74-79 PERCENT. 24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 24 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........GOOD (530). MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........0.08-0.28 IN. $$ MIZ018-024-030-036-042-250930- PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF- 404 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). AREAS OF DRIZZLE UNTIL 0100. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 1900. AREAS OF FOG AFTER 1900. MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43. 24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER. MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT. 24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 20 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........POOR (90). MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.13 IN. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG UNTIL 1300. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....47-52. 24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER. MIN HUMIDITY........81-86 PERCENT. 24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 20 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........GOOD (560). MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 18 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.22 IN. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL 1900...THEN RAIN AND DRIZZLE LIKELY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43. 24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER. MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 16 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........FAIR (180). MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN. .THANKSGIVING DAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). DRIZZLE LIKELY UNTIL 0700. RAIN LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....42-47. 24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER. MIN HUMIDITY........74-79 PERCENT. 24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 20 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........GOOD (380). MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 12 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.25 IN. $$ MIZ020-025>027-250930- LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL- 404 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). AREAS OF DRIZZLE UNTIL 0100. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 1900 UNTIL 0100. OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0100. AREAS OF FOG AFTER 1900. MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-44. 24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER. MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 9 PERCENT WETTER ALONG THE COAST. 20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........POOR (90). MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.26 IN. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG UNTIL 1300. OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 0700. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 0700. MAX TEMPERATURE.....46-51. 24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER. MIN HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT. 24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........GOOD (400). MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.33 IN. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL 1900...THEN RAIN AND DRIZZLE LIKELY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42. 24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER. MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT DRIER ALONG THE COAST. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........POOR (120). MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN. .THANKSGIVING DAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). DRIZZLE LIKELY UNTIL 0700. RAIN LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....40-45. 24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER. MIN HUMIDITY........73-78 PERCENT. 24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 28 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (690). MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 21 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.31 IN. $$ MIZ031>033-250930- MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF- 404 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). AREAS OF DRIZZLE UNTIL 0100. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 1900 UNTIL 0100. OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0100. AREAS OF FOG AFTER 1900. MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43. 24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER. MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT. 24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 4 PERCENT WETTER ALONG THE COAST. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 16 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........POOR (110). MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.31 IN. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG UNTIL 1300. OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 0700. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 0700. MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-50. 24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER. MIN HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT. 24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 20 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........GOOD (450). MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. PCPN AMOUNT.........0.13-0.22 IN. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL 1900...THEN RAIN AND DRIZZLE LIKELY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42. 24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER. MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT. 24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 5 PERCENT DRIER ALONG THE COAST. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 20 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........POOR (50). MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 TO 9 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.14 IN. .THANKSGIVING DAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). DRIZZLE LIKELY UNTIL 0700. RAIN LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....39-44. 24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER. MIN HUMIDITY........73-78 PERCENT. 24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 28 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (600). MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 18 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. PCPN AMOUNT.........0.24-0.36 IN. $$ MIZ028-029-034-035-041-250930- CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF- 404 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). AREAS OF DRIZZLE UNTIL 0100. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 1900. AREAS OF FOG AFTER 1900. MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43. 24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER. MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT. 24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 16 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........POOR (80). MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........0.08-0.15 IN. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG UNTIL 1300. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....46-51. 24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER. MIN HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT. 24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (610). MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 18 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.20 IN. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL 1900...THEN RAIN AND DRIZZLE LIKELY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42. 24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER. MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT. 24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........POOR (120). MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN. .THANKSGIVING DAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). DRIZZLE LIKELY UNTIL 0700. RAIN LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....40-45. 24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER. MIN HUMIDITY........74-79 PERCENT. 24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 16 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........GOOD (400). MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 12 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........0.13-0.33 IN. $$ .EXTENDED... .FRIDAY...RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS AROUND 40. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. $$ JL