FNUS53 KAPX 071935 FWFAPX FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 335 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2008 ...OCCASIONALLY DAMP...FALL LIKE WEATHER CONTINUES... .DISCUSSION...DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BRING PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUBSTANTIAL RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM SLIDES BY TO OUR SOUTH. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S THROUGH TUESDAY...WILL KEEP MIN RH PERCENTAGES WELL INTO THE 50S. MIZ016-017-019-021>023-080815- EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY COUNTIES- 335 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2008 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0200. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53...EXCEPT 55-60 ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER. MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT DRIER ALONG THE COAST. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........FAIR (240). MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 21 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........0.07-0.17 IN. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67. 24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER. MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1270). MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.12 IN. .MONDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 2000...THEN RAIN SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52. 24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER. MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT. 24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 1 PERCENT DRIER ALONG THE COAST. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........FAIR (170). MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH INCREASING TO NORTHEAST AROUND 24 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. PCPN AMOUNT.........0.18-0.86 IN. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 0800...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1400. MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65. 24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER. MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1890). MIXING HEIGHT.......7100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 24 TO 27 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN. $$ MIZ018-024-030-036-042-080815- PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF- 335 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2008 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0200. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53. 24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER. MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT. 24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........POOR (30). MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 15 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.14 IN. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1600. MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71...EXCEPT 59-64 ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED. MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1470). MIXING HEIGHT.......8100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 15 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.17 IN. .MONDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 2000...THEN RAIN SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53. 24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED. MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........GOOD (340). MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 24 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. PCPN AMOUNT.........0.35-1.11 IN. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 0800...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1400. MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66. 24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER. MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT...EXCEPT 60-65 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1940). MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 27 TO 30 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.17 IN. $$ MIZ020-025>027-080815- LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL- 335 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2008 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0200. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53...EXCEPT 56-61 ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER. MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 77-82 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........FAIR (230). MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 18 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.12 IN. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1600...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64. 24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER. MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT. 24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 13 PERCENT WETTER ALONG THE COAST. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1030). MIXING HEIGHT.......6900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 15 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.18 IN. .MONDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL 2000...THEN RAIN SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50...EXCEPT 52-57 ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER. MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........FAIR (210). MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 24 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. PCPN AMOUNT.........0.46-0.87 IN. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 0800...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1400. MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64. 24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER. MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT...EXCEPT 69-74 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1560). MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 24 TO 27 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN. $$ MIZ031>033-080815- MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF- 335 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2008 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0200. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53. 24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER. MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT DRIER ALONG THE COAST. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........POOR (70). MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 15 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1600...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68. 24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER. MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST. 24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1080). MIXING HEIGHT.......7400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 12 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........0.08-0.16 IN. .MONDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL 2000...THEN RAIN SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50. 24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER. MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT. 24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT WETTER ALONG THE COAST. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........FAIR (260). MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 18 TO 24 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........0.78-0.93 IN. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 0800...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1400. MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64. 24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER. MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT. 24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1530). MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 24 TO 27 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN. $$ MIZ028-029-034-035-041-080815- CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF- 335 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2008 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0200. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51. 24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER. MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT. 24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........POOR (10). MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 12 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72. 24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED. MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT. 24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1410). MIXING HEIGHT.......8200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 15 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.19 IN. .MONDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 2000...THEN RAIN SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51. 24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED. MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT. 24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT DRIER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........FAIR (260). MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 15 TO 24 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........0.84-1.05 IN. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 0800...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1400. MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65. 24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER. MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT. 24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1970). MIXING HEIGHT.......7100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 27 MPH. PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.12 IN. $$ .EXTENDED... .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. $$ MB