FXAK67 PAJK 042223
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
223 PM AKDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SHORT TERM...MARINE LAYER ADVANCE AND RETREAT AND THE
CONVECTION ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ONCE AGAIN ARE THE MAIN
WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW THAT THE MARINE
LAYER MANAGED TO GET INTO CROSS SOUND, PASI, AND PAKW DURING THE
NIGHT. THERE WAS ALSO A LITTLE PATCHY FOG THAT FORMED THIS
MORNING AROUND PAOH, PAGS, AND PAKT. MOST OF THIS HAS SINCE
BURNED AWAY TO THE POINT THAT ONLY THE EXTREME OUTER COAST AND
CROSS SOUND ARE STILL BEING AFFECTED. THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE
IS MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS DRIFTING BY.
WINDS AND SEA ARE ALSO LOW TODAY WITH THE WINDY SPOTS BEING
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE WINDS ARE
BLOWING TO 20 KT. 
 FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW THE MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO DO
ITS USUAL NIGHTLY ADVANCE AND RETREAT. COMING AS FAR INLAND AS
PAYA, PAGS, AND PAKT. AS SUCH HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW FOR THOSE AREAS AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY
FOG. PARTICULARLY AROUND CROSS SOUND WHERE PAEL IS STILL
REPORTING LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. THE MARINE LAYER TOMORROW WILL
ONCE AGAIN RETREAT TOMORROW PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF THE YUKON.
THE FRONT WILL BRING DRYER CONTINENTAL AIR AND MORE OFFSHORE FLOW
STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. REST OF THE PANHANDLE RETAINS PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AS SUCH HIGHS FOR SUNDAY
WILL AGAIN REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. 
 MEANWHILE, THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN BUILDING IN THE YUKON
AND BC TODAY. THE STORMS YESTERDAY GOT CLOSE TO COMPLETELY
CROSSING THE BORDER AND SPOTTERS AROUND HAINES REPORTED HEARING
THUNDER YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE
SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE REPEATING ITSELF WITH LOW LIFTED INDEX
VALUES AND CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG. AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WILL ALSO
GET INTO THE ACTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON MOSTLY IN THE MISTY
FJORDS AREA. THE ATMOSPHERE ABOVE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IS
UNSTABLE AS THE PANT 12Z SOUNDING RECORDED A CAPE OF JUST OVER
1200 J/KG. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING IN THE NORTHERN PART OF 18 AND 19 AND FOR
29. THE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT AS WE LOSE THE DAY
TIME HEATING. FOR TOMORROW, SOUTHERN AREAS MAY SEE A REPEAT OF
THE ISOLATED STORMS, BUT HAINES AND SKAGWAY WILL NOT AS THE WEAK
FRONT STABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE IN THAT AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. 
 MODELS TODAY WERE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. CHOSE TO UPDATE THE
FORECAST WITH THE CURRENT NAM RUN. THE SKY GRID WAS HEAVILY HAND
EDITED TO CORRESPOND WITH THE COMING AND GOING OF THE MARINE
LAYER AS NONE OF THE MODELS TODAY SEEMED TO DO A GOOD JOB WITH
IT.  
.LONG TERM...THE FORECAST MODELS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AREA IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND AND PERSISTING THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH
SOME WEAKENING LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE EC AND THE GFS IN REGARDS TO THE EC
WANTING TO TIP OVER THE RIDGE BY FRIDAY AS THE WESTERN UPPER TROF
LIFTS OUT OF THE BERING AND INTO THE INTERIOR OF AK. PREFERRED THE
GFS SOLUTION AS IT HAS GOOD SUPPORT BY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND IT IS
A STRONG BLOCK AND IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO BREAK DOWN. THERE IS
GOOD FORECASTER CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL BE A WARM AND MAINLY DRY
WEEK FOR SE AK.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF THROUGH END OF THE WEEKEND
AND STRENGTHENS NW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE. A SURFACE INVERTED
TROF REMAIN OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE WEEK TO KEEP A
NORTHERLY WIND AT THE SURFACE AND OVER THE MARINE WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEK. THIS INVERTED TROF WILL INCREASE THE WINDS IN LYNN CANAL
IN THE AFTERNOON TO 20KT BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING
AND NIGHT TIME. 
LOW MARINE CLOUDS WILL PERSISTS OVER THE GULF THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK WITH AREAS OF FOG WITH STRONG SUBSTANCE FROM THE UPPER HIGH.
THIS MARINE LAYER WILL MOVE INTO THE INNER CHANNELS AS FAR AS ICY
STRAIT IN THE NORTH  AND OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF CLARENCE,
SUMNER AND CHATHAM AT NIGHT BUT CLEAR OUT DURING THE DAY. THE LAND
AREAS WILL REMAIN TO SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK WITH THE STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. THERE WILL BE SOME
VORT LOBES AND MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS DRIFTING OVER THE AREA FROM
THE EAST TO INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER AND THREAT OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER EMBEDDED MON AND TUE. 
TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SOME POSSIBLE SOME
AREAS REACHING 80 WITH ALL OF THE SUNSHINE THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RECEIVE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS 850MB
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 12 TO 15C AND WITH THESES WARM TEMPS ALOFT
AND IT NOT STAYING DARK THAT LONG, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN
THE LOWER 50S.
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
EAL/ABJ