FXAK69 PAFG 042315
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
315 PM AKDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH HEIGHT RIDGE DOMINATING NORTHERN ALASKA WEATHER EVEN AS LONG
WAVE TROF REMAINS LOCKED IN OVER THE BERING SEA. SHORTWAVE TROF
ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW WILL MOVE THRU THE BERING SEA MON-TUE
BUT MODELS NOW KEEPING THIS FEATURE WEST OF THE PRIBILOFS AND
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. THIS WILL LIMIT IMPACTS TO MOSTLY WEST OF
165W. 
IN THE MID RANGE...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE REASONABLY COHERENT IN THE
MID RANGE FOR NORTHERN ALASKA. HIGH HEIGHT RIDGE BECOMING CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA BY TUE. INCREASING SUPPORT FROM
GFS FOLLOWING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY 00Z ECMWF IN TAKING CLOSED LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE BERING SEA MON/TUE TO MOVE OVER TOP THE RIDGE
AND HELP LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTH SLOPE BY LATE WED/THU.
EVOLUTION OF RIDGE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK HAS LOTS OF SPREAD BUT
LITTLE SUPPORT FOR REBUILDING OVER INTERIOR. OPERATIONAL 00Z
CANADIAN AND AT SOME NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL HAVE COLD LOW
OVER THE WESTERN CANADIAN ARCTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD...THO
OPERATIONAL 00Z ECMWF COMPLETELY BACKS AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. BUT I
STILL THINK THIS IS AN UNLIKELY SOLUTION.
NORTH SLOPE...WARM AIRMASS OVER ALASKA SHOULD LARGELY MAINTAIN ELY
COASTAL WINDS AND ATTENDED PERIODS OF...MOSTLY...DIURNAL ST AND
FOG INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIMITED CONVECTION NEAR THE BROOKS RANGE
CREST. CLOSED LOW ALOFT MOVING THRU THE BERING SEA MAY TURN THE
CORNER BY MID WEEK AND BRING SOME RAIN.
WEST COAST...SOME COASTAL SC LIKELY TO PERSIST BUT RIDGE HANDING
TOUGH AND WARM AIRMASS WILL ALLOW MAY AREAS TO CLEAR OUT. WEST OF
160W PROBABLY ENOUGH PRES GRAD TO BRING EAST WINDS BACK UP BUT
PRECIP CONFINED TO WESTERNMOST ZONES. 
INTERIOR...MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS EVENING EAST OF 153W...THEN
TOMORROW RIDGE REBUILDING SHOULD PRETTY MUCH SQUASH CONVECTION
WEST OF 148W. SEVERAL ACTIVE FIRES WEST OF NENANA ATTM HAVE SPREAD
SGFNT SMOKE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR...AND THIS IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR SOME TIME TO COME AS NO REAL COOL DOWN
ANYTIME IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THINGS OUT. NO PROBLEM WINDS ON
THE HORIZON. 
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NONE
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&
$$
RT JUL 09