FXAK69 PAFG 161401
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
501 AM AKST THU FEB 16 2012
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER AIR...LONG WAVE FEATURES INCLUDE...RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH
OVER WESTERN CANADA...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SIBERIA...AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT.
SURFACE... A 978 MB LOW 135 MILES WEST OF COLD BAY WILL WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND FRI MORNING. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRI
MORNING. THE LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF THE PRIBILOFS SAT AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SIBERIA WILL EXPAND TO THE NORTHERN ARCTIC
OCEAN TONIGHT...THEN PERSIST THROUGH SAT.
NORTH SLOPE...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH WILL PRODUCE A PERSISTENT EAST FLOW THROUGH SAT. FLURRIES
OR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE.
WEST COAST...AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING NORTH OVER THE WEST COAST
TODAY WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER MOST OF
THE WEST COAST ZONES TODAY. SHOWERS WILL END OVER ALL BUT THE
SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND BERING STRAIT AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ARCTIC FRONT WILL ENHANCE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND
SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AREA TODAY...WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH
PRODUCING BLOWING SNOW AND VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES.
ANOTHER FRONT MOVING NORTH FRI THROUGH SAT MAY CAUSE A SIMILAR
ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS AND NORTHEAST WINDS WITH BLOWING SNOW.
INTERIOR...SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING NORTH OVER
NORTHERN ALASKA TODAY WILL BE LIGHT...ANY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN
1 INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DAYS 4 THROUGH 8...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH A COMPLEX UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AND RIDGES WILL TRAVERSE NORTHERN AK AROUND THIS FEATURE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE MANY DIFFERENCES
FROM RUN TO RUN WITH THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS. THERE IS DECENT
AGREEMENT TOWARD DAY 7 THAT A DEEP LOW PASSES SOUTH OF KAMCHATKA
THAT MAY EVENTUALLY BUILD A RIDGE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
BERING SEA/WESTERN AK LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. CAB
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&
$$
DA FEB 12