FXAK69 PAFG 072351
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
251 PM AKST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON AND THEN MOVE EAST. THE FLAT LONG WAVE
RIDGE OVER THE BERING WILL MOVE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WED.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE THROUGH THIS RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS
THE BERING INTO THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA SUN THROUGH MON.
A SHORT WAVE/SURFACE LOW COUPLET NEAR MAGADAN WILL MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE NAVARIN AS A 986 MB LOW BY 3AM MON AND TO NOME AS A 981 MB
LOW BY 3PM MON AND NEAR MCGRATH BY 3AM TUE. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WITH
THE LOW WILL MOVE TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND TO ST MATTHEW IS BY 3AM
MON...TO NOME-BETHA STRONG STORM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INTO NORTON SOUND ON MONDAY. THIS COULD
BRING HEAVY SNOW...STRONG WINDS AND LOCAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO
THE YUKON DELTA FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY.
EL BY 3PM MON...AND MCGRATH SOUTH BY 3AM TUE.
WILL SEE 4-8 INCHES OF OVERRUNNING SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
OCCLUDED FRONT ALONG WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS 25-35KT AND BLOWING
SNOW. THIS COULD CAUSE HEAVY SNOW AND LOCAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
AND HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER WATCH SAYING SUCH. IN THE STRONG
COLD ADVECTION SOUTH OF THE LOW AND WEST OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL
TURN W-NW 40 KT AND BRING ANOTHER SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW SHOWERS
AND MORE BLOWING SNOW.
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM POINT HOPE TO KOTZEBUE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUN PM THEN DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC
COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON. THIS WILL CAUSE EAST WINDS ALONG
THE ARCTIC COAST TO PERSIST INTO SUN AND INCREASE SUN NIGHT AS THE
STRONG LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST BERING. 
A LOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND
MOVE EAST SUN. AREAS OF FLURRIES AND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR THROUGH SUN AM AS WELL. 
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR MON
AND ALLOWS A CHANCE OF SNOW TO DEVELOP THERE. 
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 3PM
SUN. THEREAFTER THE GFS IS DEEPER AND SLOWER THAN THE NAM/ECMF
IN MOVING A STRONG LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING. PREFER THE
FASTER NAM/ECMF SOLUTION AS THIS FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
FAST MOVING JET STREAK, AND THE NAM/ECMF ARE MORE CONSISTENT RUN
TO RUN WITH THIS LOW FEATURE. THE NAM ALSO PRODUCES MORE PRECIPITATION
THAN THE GFS WITH THIS DEEP LOW WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN ITS
SUPPLY OF WARM MOIST AIR MOVING OVER WELL ENTRENCHED ARCTIC AIR
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA. 
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...HEAVY SURF ZONE 214 MON
INTO TUE. 
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ214.
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&
$$
JB NOV 09