FXCN01 CWAO 132100
MAIN WX DISCUSSION
ERN RGNS...
REG MDLS IS ABT 2-3DAM DEEPER WITH NRN LABRDR CST UPR LO BY MID PD WHICH LEAD
TO A WEAKER MOTION NWD BUT IN LAST 12HRS REG GO BACK IN TRACK COMPARE TO
MOST MODELS WITH THE LO CENTRE INTO DAVIS STRAIT. DIFFERENCE ARE LARGE AT THE
SFC WHERE REG/GEMGLB ARE LESS PROGRESSIVE N-NWWD WITH A LO OVR NRN TIP OF THE
TORNAGATS BY T+24, FOREIGN MDLS SUGGEST SFC LO FURTHE NW INTO HUDSON STRAIT.
MOST MDLS SHOW A SFC TROF XTNDG E-SEWD. BYD THAT PD MOST MDLS HAVE SIMLIARE
IDEA WITH UPR/SFC LO OVR DVAIS STRAIT. CAN MDLS STIILL DEEPER BY ABT 8-10MB ITH
THE LO. A SLTN AS FOREING MDLS IS RECOMMENDED ATTM.
FURTHER W, REG IS ALSO A BIT DEEPER WITH EMBD UPR S/W AS IT ROTATE THRU ON
AND END UP OVR CNTRL QC BY D2. UKMET IS WEAKER BCS OF A WEAKER AND FURTHER E
UPR LO OVR DVSST. SO A WEAKER SLTN AS GEMGLB/ECMWF AND NCEPS MDLS. NO SIG WX
WITH THAT FEAT.
YK-BC SYS MVG INTO THE PRAIRIES-NWT-NU...
LITTLE DIFFERENCE NWT UPR LO/TROF AS ITS DEEPEN AS ITS CROSS THE RGNS WITH A
FINAL POSITION OVR NRN PRAIRIES/NU. GFS END UP WITH THE DEEPEST TROF OVR THAT
AREA WHILE NAM SEEM ON SLOW SIDE. AT THE SFC, REG/GEMGLB ARE ABT 2-3MB DEEPER
THAN FOREIGN MDLS AS SFC LO DEEPEN FROM WRN NWT THRU NU/HSNBA BY D2. AS PER ITS
UPPR PATTERN GFS IS TOO DEEP AND NAM TOO WEAK. ATTM A SLTN AS CAN MDLS IS A GUD
CHOICE. LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATE WITH THIS FEAT. NO SIG WX.
FOR THE SRN PROTION, BC UPR TROF WILL CROSS CAN ROCKIES EARLY IN PD. THIS
FEAT WILL END UP OVR SRN PRAIRIES/NRN PLAINS BY D2. NAM IS ALONE WITH AS
DEEPE/LARGE TROF OVR THE AREA...AS WELL WITH NWRN U.S. UPR LO/TROF. ECMWF IS
SHARPER WITH THIS FEAT MAINLY OVR ND. REG/UKMET ARE A TAD DEEPER THANGEMGLB/GFS.
REG AND GEMGLB ARE A TAD WEAKER WITH RESULTING SFC TROF OVR MB/WRN ON XTNDG
SWD. GFS FCST MORE PCPN ALG THE TROF COMPARED TO CAN MDLS..AND EVEN THE NAM. NO
SIG WX.
CNTRL U.S. - LOWER GRTLKS - SRN ON...
XCPT UKMET WITH A DEEPER/FASTER NE UPR TROF, MDLS AGREE IN WKNG THIS FEAT AS IT
MVS EWD AND REACH LOWER GRTLKS BY D2. MDLS HINT WEAK SFC LO W OF GRTLKS ALIGN
WITH SYS FURTHER SW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RESULTING CUTOFF LO WHICH WILL BE
DISCUSS IN NXT SECTION.
CUTOFF LO OVR WRN U.S....
REG AND UKMET LUK ON DEEP SIDE WITH NRN CA UPR LO AS IT MVS OVR CNTRL U.S. A
WEAKER SLTN AS GEMGLB/ECMWF/GFS IS PREFERRED. NAM STILL THE OUTLIER HERE WITH A
LESS PROGRESSIVE AND FCTS THE SFC LO/TROF FURTHER NW. AT THE SFC, SUPRINSINGLY
REG SHOW SAME INTENSITY AS THE CONSENSUS WHERE UKMET IS ABT 3-5MB DEEPER.
AGAIN A SLTN AS GEMGLB IS OUR CHOICE.
WRN RGNS...
XCPT NAM WITH A WEAKER UPR TROF REACHING WRN CST AND NOT AS FAST AS THE OTHER
MDLS TO SWING ITS SEWD...ITS SLTN IS RJCTD. UKMET LUK LIKE CAN MDLS/GFS/ECMWF
BUT STILL FASTER SWD. EVEN SIMILARITE WITH POSITION OF CA UPR TROF, CAN MDLS ARE
ABT 3-5DAM DEEPER. A WEAKER SLTN IS PREFERRED. AT THE SFC, MDLS AGREE WITH SFC
LO NR VRISL NXT 24HRS AND GO IN WKNG TREND AS IT MVS INLAND AND AS SFC HI BUILT
TO THE WEST. LIGHT PCPN ALG SFC TROF TO ITS N....AND VC SFC LO TO THE S. NO SIG
WX.
DATELN SYS MVG INTO KODIAK ISLANDS, AK....
JUST A WORD TO SAY THAT NCEP MDLS ARE A TAD WEKER WITH UPR TROF AHEAD OF
THE RESULTING KODIAK PENINSULA UPR LO...STRENGHT OF UPR RDG ARE SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT. CAN MDLS ARE A BIT DEEPER/FASTER WITH SFC TROF REACHING 140W BY D2
COMPARE TO GEPS AND EURO MDLS....AND STRONGER AS WELL WITH SFC HI/RDG OVR BC.
END/LAROCQUEM