FXCN01 CWAO 300930
MAIN WX DISCUSSION
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MODELS STILL IN FAIR AGREEMENT TONIGHT WITH L/W PATTERN EVOLUTION NEXT 2 DAYS
OVR NOAM.
ERN PAC UPPER TROF MOVG INLAND ERLY IN PD AND IMPULSE AT THE BASE OF UPPER TROF
HELPS DIGGING UPPER TROF OFF COAST OF NWRN STATES; GFS NOT QUITE AS DEEP AS
OTHER MODELS BY END OF PD WITH THIS UPPER TROF. DOWNSTREAM HEIGHTS RISING OVR
ONT/QUE ALLOWING SWLY UPPER FLO TO ESTABLISH FROM PRAIRIES TO NRN QUE.
UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVR ONT ACTS AS A KICKER FOR CLOSED UPPER LO CNTR JUST S
OF MARITIMES AT INITIALIZATION. HWVR, ANOTHER CLOSED LO FORMG IN THIS UPPER
TROF OVR MARITIMES BY END OF PD.
CLOSED UPPER LO CNTR OVR ARCTIC RGNS CONTINUES TO FILL SLOLY WHILE IMPULSE FROM
SRN BC MOVS THRU SWLY UPPER FLO TO NRN HUDSON BAY BY END OF PD.
SFC LO MOVG FROM SWRN AB TO NRN HUDSON BAY...
MODELS STILL IN FAIR AGREEMENT HANDLING EVOLUTION OF THIS FEAT AS WELL AS
ASSOCIATED FNTL TROF THRU CNTRL RGNS; GFS A BIT FASTER THAN OTHER MODELS BUT
MODELS IN RSNBL AGREEMENT WITH SFC LO TRACK.
COLD FNT SWEEPING THRU SWRN BC AND SRN AB ERLY IN PD ALLOWING COOLER AMS TO MOV
THRU THESE RGNS; MODELS AGREE ON UNSETTLED WX FOR THESE RGNS UNDER POOL OF
COLDER AMS.
MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SFC LO TRACK AS IT MOVS THRU CNTRL RGNS; AS A
RESULT, CDN AND AMERICAN MODELS AGREE WITH MAIN PCPN AREA NW OF SFC LO TRACK,
AFFECTING MAINLY NRN PRAIRIES. GEMREG QPFS MAY BE A BIT HI SPLLY ERLY IN
PD WITH MAX AMOUNTS BUT GNRL PCPN PATTERN IS CORRECT.
ARCTIC RGNS...
MODELS STILL CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN HANDLING EVOLUTION OF WX PATTERN OVR
ARCTIC RGNS. GEMREG LUKS RSNBL WITH FILLING TREND OF SFC LO OVR ARCTIC RGNS;
HWVR, BY END OF PD, GEM MODELS STILL DEEPER THAN FOREIGN MODELS AND GEMREG TOO
FAR W. NEVERTHELESS, GEMREG SOLN LUKS RSNBL WITH BROAD AREA OF PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT GEMREG QPFS ON THE HI SIDE AGAIN WITH MAX AMOUNTS. GNRL
PATTERN/IDEA LUK RSNBL.
ANOTHER AREA OF WELL ORGANISED PCPN MOVG TO NRN HUDSON BAY BY END OF PD WITH
SFC LO MOVG FROM CNTRL RGNS IN SWLY UPPER FLO. AS DISCUSSED ABV, GEMREG/GEMGLB
QPFS FAIRLY SIM WRT COVERAGE/AMOUNTS ON DAY 2 AND GV THE RIGHT IDEA.
QUE AND MARITIMES...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GUD AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM AFFECTING CNTRL QUE
DURG PD. ECMWF SLIGHTLY FURTHER E COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS WITH SFC LO BY
T+24HRS BUT ALL MODELS IN RSNBL AGREEMENT WITH GNRL PATTERN. BY END OF PD,
GEMREG LUKS TOO FAR S WITH SFC LO S OF ANTICOSTI. GEMGLB POSN, E OF ANTICOSTI,
BY T+48HRS FITS BETTER WITH FOREIGN MODELS AND IS PREFERRED.
PCPNWISE, GEMREG QPFS STILL GV THE RIGHT IDEA BUT MAX AMOUNTS PROBABLY ON THE
HI SIDE AGAIN. IN VIEW OF AVLBL WATER CONTENT AND SLO EWD PROGRESSION
OF THIS SYSTEM, SIG PCPN AMOUNTS XPCTD BUT SLIGHTLY MORE CONSERVATIVE AMOUNTS
SUGGESTED BY GEMGLB SHUD VRFY BETTER OVR NERN QUE AND LAB.
CLOSED UPPER LO CNTR S OF MARITIMES ERLY IN PD...
GUD AGREEMENT ALSO AMONGST MODELS WRT CLOSED UPPER LO CNTR LIFTG NEWD THRU
NFLD BY MID PD;
GEMREG QPFS PATTERN LUKS RSNBL AND GVS THE RIGHT IDEA BUT AGAIN,
CONFIDENCE IS LO IN DETAILS OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATS.
END/ROY