FXPQ60 PGUM 070750
AFDPQ 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
550 PM CHST TUE OCT 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...THE LAST WAVE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH
WEST OF THE ISLANDS HAS PASSED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MARIANAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DRYING ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY WESTWARD...AND IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT LOCAL WEATHER TONIGHT WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
ISOLATED SHOWERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE NEXT TRANSITORY
FEATURE PROJECTED TO ARRIVE AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. GFS
AND NOGAPS INDICATE THE NEXT TRADE WIND DISTURBANCE AKA TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE MARSHALL ISLANDS WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES WEST NEAR
150E FRIDAY THEN BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
OVER THE WEEKEND. STILL TOO FAR OUT TO DO MORE THAN MAINTAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...SHOULD SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL ONCE TIMING IS CLEAR.
&&
.EASTERN MICRONESIA...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST ON THIS SIDE OF
MICRONESIA. THE ITCZ REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH NEAR CONSTANT
RAIN REPORTED AT MOST OF THE MAJOR ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...SOME
GUSTY WINDS WERE REPORTED AT KWAJALEIN. AS STATED EARLIER...MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES BROAD BRUSH THE AREA WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK BEFORE INDICATING
SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS BY WEEKEND. I FOUND NO REASON TO CHANGE
WITH THIS SCENARIO...FOR NOW.
&&
.WESTERN MICRONESIA...FORECAST SCENARIO FOR PALAU AND YAP REMAINS
UNSETTLED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
AND POSSIBLE CIRCULATION APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES QUICKLY PAST
THE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE
EXACT POSITION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOT CERTAIN AND
THEREFORE WIND FORECAST FOR THE ISLANDS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON
WHETHER THE CIRCULATION MOVES BETWEEN PALAU AND YAP OR CLOSER OR
NORTH OF YAP. MODELS ALL HAVE A WEAK CIRCULATION DEVELOPING BUT
ARE SPLIT ON THE EXACT POSITION. IN ANY CASE...THE SYSTEM IS NOT
THAT WELL DEVELOPED...AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE FAIRLY
QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE DOING TOO MUCH. WEATHER SHOULD
SHOW IMPROVEMENT BY LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WHILE WAITING FOR THE
NEXT IMPULSE TO COME IN FROM THE EAST SOMETIME DURING THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE ANNOTATED THE REMARKS TO
INDICATE POSSIBLE HEAVY SHOWERS...AND ASSUMED INCREASED FLOODING
POTENTIAL..FOR BOTH YAP AND PALAU OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CHUUK ALSO LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SEE SEVERAL DAYS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS HANGS BACK OVER THE ISLANDS AND EXTENDS TO
EAST POHNPEI. ALTHOUGH NOTHING ORGANIZED...MODELS LIKE PUSHING 
SEVERAL IMPULSES THROUGH AS THEY PASS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WESTWARD 
FROM OUT OF THE MARSHALS. 
&&
.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
MUNDELL/EDSON