FXUS02 KWNH 071410
PREEPD
 
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1009 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008
 
VALID 12Z THU SEP 11 2008 - 12Z SUN SEP 14 2008
 
HURRICANE IKE IS FORECAST BY THE NHC TO STRENGTHEN WHILE TRACKING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WED-FRI.  THIS TRACK WOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY THREATEN MARITIME INTERESTS AND COULD LEAD TO MAJOR
LANDFALL OVER THE WRN GULF COAST STATES NEXT WEEKEND.  IKE IS A
DANGEROUS SYSTEM SO PLEASE MONITOR INFO FROM THE NHC FOR UPDATED
INFORMATION.  THE TROPICS ARE AGAIN ACTIVE OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AS
WELL WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NOW SOUTH OF
BAJA.
OTHERWISE...NRN STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE MID-HIGHER LATITUDES OF
NOAM BECOMES QUITE COMPLEX AS EARLY AS MIDWEEK AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRIES TO DIG INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS LEAD IMPULSES SHEAR
MORE PROGRESSIVELY EWD ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN
US IN FLATTER FLOW.  WITHIN THE FULL ENVELOPE SOLUTIONS...MORE
PROGRESSIVE EVOLUTIONS FROM THE 06 UTC GFS AND 00 UTC UKMET DO
HAVE SOME POTENTIAL CONSIDERING THEIR SHORT WAVELENGTH SPACING
BETWEEN EMBEDDED IMPULSES.  HOWEVER...THESE CONFLICT SLOWER
SOLUTIONS OF THE 00 UTC ECMWF/CANADIAN AND THE 00 UTC GFS THAT
ALLOW MORE WRN US DIGGING TO THE LEE OF AN AMPLIFIED ERN PAC
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  THE 00 UTC GFS IS ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE
MIDDLE OF SYSTEM PROGRESSIONS HEADING THROUGH LATE WEEK/NEXT
WEEKEND AND MAY BE THE MOST REASONABLE SOLUTION WE HAVE FOR NOW
OVERALL...BUT THESE DIFFERENCES MAY LOOM SIGNIFICANT WITH RESPECT
TO ANY EVENTUAL INTERACTION FROM THE MID-LATITUDES NEXT WEEKEND
WITH IKE.
SCHICHTEL
$$