FXUS04 KWBC 160634 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 134 AM EST THU FEB 16 2012 PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION VALID FEB 16/1200 UTC THRU FEB 17/1200 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR ...DAY 1... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE SPLIT FLOW WL DOMINATE MUCH OF NOAM THIS PD WITH THE MAIN BELT OF NRN WRLYS COMING OFF THE NRN PAC THEN ACRS THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...WHILE A SCND RIBBON OF STGR FLOW DROPS DOWN THE WCST THEN SHOOTS ACRS THE SRN U.S.. RIDGE OVR THE CARIBBEAN INTO WRN ATLC WL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE THAT WL DIRECT ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM INTO THE ERN U.S.. MDLS ARE GENERALLY ON THE SAME PAGE WITH THE LARGER FEATURES...BUT ARE SHOWING SOME SEPARATION BEYOND DAY 1 WITH SEVERAL FEATURES OVR THE ERN U.S. AS NRN/SRN STREAM ENERGY POSSIBLY PHASES. ...ERN U.S... POTENT...BUT SMALL SCALE IMPULSE OVR THE MID MS VLY THIS MRNG WL CONT TO LIFT ENE AND OVR THE GULF OF MEX INTO WRN ATLC RIDGE AND INTO THE NERN U.S.. AT THE SAME TIME ENERGY DROPPING SEWD FM CANADA WL MOVE INTO THE UPR GRT LAKES. THE TIGHTENING MID/UPR GRADIENT WL SUPPORT ACCELERATION AND WEAKENING OF THE MID MS VLY SYS AS IT GETS CAUGHT IN THE CONFLUENT/FAST FLOW REGIME. MDLS ARE GENERALLY ON THE SAME PAGE WITH A SWATH OF LGT/MOD PCPN ACRS A BROAD REGION OF THE ERN U.S....WITH POCKETS OF MOD TO POSSIBLY HVY RNFL OVR THE SERN U.S.. MOST GUID IS SHOWING BROAD...ALBEIT WEAK WAA THRU THE REGION...WITH THE STGR WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ASSOCD LOLVL CVRG ALONG THE NEARLY STALLED WRMFNT THRU THE WRN MID ATLC/SERN U.S.. HAVE PLACED SOME MOD/HVY RNFL THRU THIS REGION. THE SCND AREA OF MORE ORGANIZED MOD/HVY RNFL SHLD BE ALONG THE CNTRL/ERN GULF CST REGION WHERE CONTD MOIST INFLOW WL REMAIN IN PLACE...WHILE THE SFC CDFNT MOVG TWD THE REGION STALLS. ONE WILD-CARD IS THE MCS/MCV MOVG THRU THE GULF STATES. THIS COMPLEX IS MOVG FASTER THAN ANY OF THE GUID THIS MRNG...BUT IT IS ALSO MOVG INTO THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION...WHILE THE STGR MID/UPR ENERGY LIFTS NEWD AWAY FM THE REGION. XPCT THIS SYS TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER THIS MRNG AS LOLVL FORCING/MSTR FLUX BACKS OFF AND THE SYS MOVES INTO THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION. ...SRN TX... VERY DIFFICULT AND UNCERTAIN FCST FOR THIS REGION AS THE SFC CDFNT PUSHING SWD THRU TX STALLS AND THEN BEGINS TO LIFT NWD LATER ON DAY 1 AS A CLOSED LOW OVR THE SWRN U.S./NERN MEX BEGINS MOVG EWD. THE MID/UPR FLOW BETWEEN THE SWRN U.S. SYS AND THE WRN GULF WL TIGHTEN UP WITH WV SATL PICS SHOWING A STREAM OF MID/HI LVL MSTR AND SUBTROPICAL ENERGY THAT WL PUSH OVR THE REGION FM THE EPAC/MEX. THIS SHLD SUPPORT A BROAD REGION OF WEAK WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT...WITH MDLS INDICATING SEVERAL AREAS OF DISORGANIZED WAA/CVRG IN THE 8H-7H LAYER. HIER RES GUID SHOWS SOME POCKETS OF HVIER RNFL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON THE AREAS DUE TO OVERALL MDL DISAGREEMENT. MANUAL QPF PAINTED A BROAD REGION OF LGT/MOD RNFL THRU SRN TX...WITH THE HVIER PCPN ASSOCD WITH THE DEEPER MSTR AND LOLVL ONSHORE FLOW. ...SWRN U.S./SRN ROCKIES... CLOSED LOW OVR SRN CA THIS MRNG IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY SEWD EARLY TDA...THEN TURN MORE EWD TNGT AND MOVES INTO NWRN MEX. ALTHOU DYNAMICS WL BE MOD/STG WITH THE SYS...MSTR FEEDING INTO THE SYS IS QUICKLY FADING...PER LATEST SATL DERIVED PW LOOPS. XPCT GENERALLY LGT PCPN THRU THE REGION...BUT WITH RATHER COLD MIDLVL TEMPS AND SOME SFC HEATING...THERE SHLD BE SOME WEAK LOLVL INSTBLTY DURG THE AFTN/EVE HRS THAT COULD SUPPORT ISOLD CONVECTION. ALSO...SE FLOW WL SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE ALONG THE FAVORED HIER ELEVS FM AZ INTO NM. ...NWRN U.S.... STG MIDLVL SHRTWV PUSHING INTO THE REGION THIS MRNG WL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A STG RIDGE AXIS OVR WRN CAN. DECENT EPAC MSTR IS JUST OFFSHORE AND WL BRIEFLY GET PULLED INLAND TDA ACRS WA/OR WHERE SOME ORGANIZED LGT PCPN AMTS ARE FCST. VERY LGT PCPN SHLD SPILL OVR THE DIVIDE AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. ECKERT GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 17/12Z 0.01 354115 347104 344094 350088 358086 356079 354077 355072 351073 347072 348068 355063 354055 347050 344041 347025 338022 327022 318017 309997 310961 315941 314929 307919 306905 310890 325879 338873 345867 356860 379852 385851 401853 415848 435842 444848 451866 461886 474903 490916 511893 515826 508780 491732 487705 479679 461671 431678 374684 343706 317752 294818 269891 257931 245973 242993 258009 272012 292016 297029 297035 298046 305053 305064 300076 293091 293107 297124 310134 312146 315157 326163 336170 340174 342179 346172 349161 356151 360147 357140 356131 357121 354115 0.01 530234 532225 532215 532198 530184 528176 525169 520160 512152 506147 497142 492136 483128 475124 471124 470128 471133 471138 476140 481141 486144 486149 484148 480148 476148 472145 468141 465140 463141 460143 459147 461151 462157 464161 467165 470168 474167 477173 480178 484183 490188 491195 486200 480201 474203 472203 470206 467208 463209 459209 457213 451216 446218 443222 444226 447227 450228 451230 447232 442233 437234 432237 427238 424242 425247 432253 444259 459262 474265 483270 493280 499283 504286 510285 514283 517277 520271 521265 524252 528240 530234 0.01 510209 515219 513225 507218 503211 504208 505205 510209 0.01 486232 487228 486227 483226 481223 477224 474224 477225 480227 482231 482232 485233 486232 0.01 484099 484090 482085 479085 476094 471089 468089 465093 464098 459098 453093 447092 444096 442100 442109 444113 446120 449124 455124 458118 461115 466118 469119 472117 475114 478107 484099 0.01 378083 378081 377079 376075 375075 372075 372078 373079 374083 375084 378084 378083 0.25 505234 501223 496216 492214 488212 484211 481211 479214 481217 484219 489220 492226 493232 496239 500245 502249 498251 494247 490242 486239 483242 481241 479237 477233 474232 472235 470238 468238 466236 465234 463235 462236 461235 457235 454235 452236 450237 449237 449240 452243 458243 476249 486260 497274 501275 503270 503264 506260 511261 513257 512252 510246 505234 0.25 509184 508184 507186 508191 511195 514196 516200 519198 517193 512189 512187 509184 0.25 474763 469758 461756 457764 458776 466791 474805 484808 487794 478771 474763 0.25 385809 399810 410807 420800 423793 423783 428772 431760 423754 412756 400766 387782 382783 376778 375768 382750 387733 382715 371708 359712 356713 351724 347732 341740 338744 336750 334760 332787 334809 326826 317834 308833 300836 288851 272904 268921 270930 269942 259958 253972 254991 263001 284002 294001 298992 297983 297972 299962 302954 303942 298937 291939 289928 292914 296900 302883 320864 331854 339851 348846 360829 366823 373816 378812 385809 0.25 417720 413723 410731 411735 414736 418735 421732 425730 424727 420725 417720 0.25 327147 323147 321150 327155 331154 332151 330148 327147 0.25 338088 338082 334078 329076 326078 327081 330084 333090 338088 0.25 325054 325058 327060 332060 336062 341063 342060 338056 330052 327052 325054 0.25 327131 322118 311114 308115 314120 318127 320133 323137 326137 327131 0.50 499232 498227 496222 495226 495227 496231 497233 499232 0.50 367723 363719 357725 353737 355739 362736 369729 367723 0.50 367807 366803 363804 360802 358797 356790 355783 353774 351770 348769 344772 342778 341786 342791 345795 345804 344811 339823 335831 331837 328841 329845 333846 341843 346838 350832 354825 363813 367807 0.50 304849 294857 287868 282885 279903 285902 288897 293886 303872 312862 316853 313847 308847 304849 0.50 257979 257985 259991 266995 270991 273984 278976 281968 285957 281953 275957 268961 261965 257973 257979 $$