FXUS04 KWBC 100659 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 158 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010 PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION VALID FEB 10/1200 UTC THRU FEB 11/1200 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR DAY 1... NRN MID ATL INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND... THE STRONG HT FALLS ASSOC WITH CLOSED LOW MOVG FROM THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS TO OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATL WED MORNING WILL CONT TO SUPPORT RAPID DEEPENING OF THE COASTAL SFC LOW OFF THE NRN MID ATL COAST. STRONG UVVS IN THE DEVELOPING COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION BAND WITH THIS DEEPENING LOW WL SUPPORT HEAVY SNOWS FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE NRN MID ATL. PTYPE MAY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE IMMED COAST OF NJ/LONG ISLAND AND SERN NEW ENGLAND FOR A PERIOD BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW. OVERALL...MODEL QPFS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE DAY 1 QPF LEANING TOWARD THE SREF MEAN GIVEN DETAIL DIFFS. THE LATEST ROUND OF HEAVY SNOWS OVR THE MID ATL HAVE BROUGHT SEASONAL SNOW TOTALS TO RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LEVELS ACROSS THE WASHINGTON-BALTIMORE METRO REGION...INTO THE PHL METRO AREA...ACRS DE AND PORTIONS OF SRN NJ. SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR FURTHER WINTER WEATHER DETAILS. CNTRL TO SRN APPALACHIANS... IN THE WAKE OF THE DEEPENING SFC LOW MOVG ALONG THE NRN MID ATL COAST...WLY TO NWLY UPSLOPE FLOW WL STRENGTHEN INTO THE CNTRL TO SRN APPALACHIANS. THIS WL SUPPORT UPSLOPE PCPN WITH MDT TO LOCALLY HVY SNOW AMTS LIKELY FROM WRN PA..THRU FAR WRN MD...ERN WV..FAR SWRN VA..FAR ERN TN AND FAR WRN NC. SW INTO THE SRN PLAINS... THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFS WITH THE EWD PUSH OF THE NEXT WELL DEFINED SRN STREAM SYSTEM FCST TO MOVE EWD FROM SRN CA EARLY WED AND ACRS NRN MEXICO. THE NAM IS ON THE SLOW END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HERE DAY 1. AS PER THE PMDHMD...WE ARE LEANING TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE NON NCEP RUNS FOR QPF TIMING DETAILS. STRONG UPR DYNAMICS WITH THIS CLOSED LOW WL SUPPORT MDT PCPN AMT FOR CNTRL TO SRN AZ AND INTO CNTRL TO SRN NM DAY 1. PCPN SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO BREAK OUT AND INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FARTHER DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CLOSED LOW OVR PORTIONS OF ECNTRL TO SERN TX LATE WED INTO EARLY THU AS HIGHER PW VALUES ARE TRANSPORTED NEWD FROM NRN MEXICO INTO ECNTRL TO SERN TX. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGRMNT WITH MDT PCPN AMTS IN THE .10-.25"+ RANGE ACRS THIS AREA. PAC NW... A WEAKENING SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND INTO THE PAC NW WED....AND THEN BEGIN TO RETREAT BACK NWD AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM NERN PAC TROF. INCREASING PWS ALONG THIS FRONT AND STRENGTHENING SLY TO SWLY FLOW WL SUPPORT MDT PCPN AMTS ACRS THE PAC NW DAY 1. ORAVEC GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 11/12Z 0.01 537206 536195 532185 522168 516162 512156 506150 502149 498145 494139 487133 480127 478125 475124 470124 465128 460127 455128 453125 455122 461118 461113 460110 456101 451098 446097 436099 431101 425107 423113 425118 428124 432125 435123 437121 440121 441124 442128 441133 444137 437143 433150 436160 445173 443178 440182 438188 439195 441199 443203 445204 451199 456196 463195 468194 472194 475199 471204 468206 464206 460207 456210 454210 450213 447212 439211 434210 431208 424202 418200 411202 410208 410211 407212 403212 401215 403223 400228 398229 396235 396241 397245 399249 408251 413254 414258 415262 417267 423272 430273 438272 452268 469271 478275 488281 504290 509288 511286 513282 515277 518263 519254 519247 516237 511228 507221 504214 506206 508205 513206 518210 523214 531218 536211 537206 0.01 435692 435686 433681 427671 422665 416662 406660 401661 392663 387666 381672 376679 371683 369687 365691 362695 359700 356706 351720 352728 355737 362750 371763 373768 376774 379778 384784 387790 382796 379798 372803 367807 360812 355818 351825 349830 348837 350843 352844 356843 361839 366838 370841 371843 375853 378859 382866 386871 392873 398873 406872 411875 417877 426876 434874 439875 445875 450876 456881 459884 461889 464898 467906 471908 473903 477893 478884 477876 475867 471855 468843 463826 461816 461806 462798 462788 461779 458767 452750 444731 439719 437713 437706 435692 0.01 404110 400108 397109 386114 377119 374122 369122 365115 363104 358096 355093 354089 354086 358077 362076 366077 369080 372083 377087 389089 395088 398084 399080 399073 398067 396064 389061 384061 381065 377066 375064 371062 375052 373047 369046 361049 355049 352046 348037 343028 340018 336005 331982 329975 327971 323963 317955 311948 305942 301939 297938 287936 281936 275937 268940 260945 253950 245956 240962 238966 236972 240978 243981 249988 256002 260011 265019 269026 276034 282040 287049 288052 288059 284065 278069 269072 264074 263078 262084 263090 270098 276105 287115 292123 297132 306147 315153 319154 323158 325162 331163 337163 339167 340173 340179 341185 342188 345189 350177 353173 358169 362164 362160 365146 367136 382124 389120 396117 403113 404110 0.25 510265 512260 512256 510247 509242 506235 495212 486210 480209 473210 469212 465213 455215 434218 429220 426221 425223 426226 428230 427234 425235 418235 414237 412241 415245 421249 428251 440252 451254 457254 463256 477262 488269 498277 501279 504280 508273 510265 0.25 426694 425688 421683 415677 409676 400680 395683 392688 390697 389705 388714 381731 379740 378748 379759 382766 390773 394775 397777 402781 401787 398791 383800 368813 361817 357825 356829 358831 360830 366823 372818 381814 387809 392805 397802 402800 405801 412804 415806 420805 424800 426796 428787 428776 427754 423740 427698 426694 0.25 345137 344132 341127 344116 344108 342103 340092 338086 335082 330074 328071 329068 332063 330057 326055 320053 314054 310057 308061 305071 304077 305083 308084 311083 315080 319078 321080 324085 326091 325098 324101 310117 308121 309127 311131 314134 324139 329141 335142 340142 343140 345137 0.25 294002 295997 295992 292983 289977 286974 281973 277974 272977 269980 268983 271992 273998 276004 280007 289007 294002 294002 0.50 491252 489247 490252 491253 491252 0.50 483249 480243 479238 476234 469237 461235 452234 448232 446228 451223 452221 448220 435221 429224 432228 433235 430239 424240 418240 424245 433247 441248 455248 468246 477250 483249 0.50 423701 422694 418689 412687 408686 404687 400691 399694 395712 390729 387738 385747 384751 385758 388763 391767 398769 405770 410770 413768 417761 419753 420742 421724 423705 423701 0.50 463221 463220 460218 458218 455218 453218 454220 457223 459225 461225 463222 463221 1.00 418705 417701 415697 413696 410698 407704 406709 403719 400730 397739 397748 397757 402759 403756 410748 414738 415725 416715 418705 1.50 409732 409728 406727 405731 404732 404736 405739 407740 408737 409736 409732 q7$$