FXUS04 KWBC 120954 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 554 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008 FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION VALID OCT 12/1200 UTC THRU OCT 15/1200 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR UPDATE... PCPN AMTS INCREASED SLIGHTLY INVOF SW TX FOR THE REMNANTS OF NORBERT. SATL IMAGERY IS SHOWING RAPID WARMING OF TOPS ASSOC WITH NORBERT..WITH ADDITIONAL WEAKENING LIKELY THIS MORNING. NONE OF THE LATEST SREF MEMBERS OR OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE MORE THAN .10-.25" AFFECTING SW TX FROM NORBERT. ELSEWHERE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE. DAY 1... NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY... SIMILAR EVOLUTION TO THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG GTBASIN CLOSED LOW DEPICTED IN LATEST GUIDANCE DURG THE DAY 1 TIME PERIOD. ALL MODELS SHOW STRONG HT FALLS ROTATING NEWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS..RESULTING IN AN ELONGATION OF THE MEAN TROF STRETCHING FROM THE NRN PLAINS SWWD THRU THE GTBASIN AND INTO THE SWRN U.S. THE ASSOC SFC LOW MOVG NWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS WL SUPPORT A WELL DEFINED REGION OF LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM THE NRN PLAINS/UPR MS VALLEY REGION INTO SCNTRL CANADA. MAX PCPN AMTS EXPECTED IN THE COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION BAND OVR ERN PORTIONS OF MT...WITH .50-1" AMTS DEPICTED. LIGHTER AMTS LIKELY FARTHER TO THE EAST WHERE THE DEVELOPING DRY SLOT WL CONT TO PUSH PCPN RAPIDLY NEWD INTO SCNTRL CAN. SRN TO CNTRL PLAINS... CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE FARTHER TO THE SW ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY STRETCHING ACRS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL TO SRN PLAINS. AN AXIS OF ABOVE NORMAL PWS EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACRS THIS AREA IN THE REGION OF SWLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE MEAN TROF STRETCHING FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GTBASIN/SW. THERE ARE SOME DIFFS WITH THE AXES OF THE HEAVIEST PCPN. THE GFS IS FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE MAX QPF AXIS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF..UKMET AND NAM. THE SREF MEMBERS FROM THE NAM AND RSM ARE SHOWING A VARIETY OF AXES...SIMILAR TO BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF/NAM/UKMET CAMPS. THE DAY 1 QPF TRENDED TOWARD THE FARTHER SEWD SOLN OF THE GFS GIVEN THE STRONG SLY INFLOW ACRS THE PLAINS WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT ANY CONVECTION THE FORMS AHEAD OF THIS TROF BUILDING SEWD WITH TIME ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOC FRONTAL BNDRY. ALL MODELS SHOW QUICK WEAKENING OF NORBERT DAY 1 AS IT SHEARS NEWD ACRS NRN MEXICO AND THEN INTO THE SRN PLAINS. OPERATIONAL AND SREF GUIDANCE DO NOT SHOW APPRECIABLE PCPN AMTS MOVG INTO SW TX FROM THESE REMNANTS. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE LARGE SCALE UVVS POSSIBLE AS THE MID TO UPR LEVEL REMNANTS MOVE NEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS IN A REGION ALREADY IN A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR HEAVY PCPN. COASTAL SOUTHEAST... THE MID TO UPR LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT HEAVY RAINS TO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST OVR THE PAST FEW DAYS SHOULD PRESS WWD DAY 1 ACRS THE SOUTHEAST AS A MID TO UPR LEVEL HIGH BUILDS OVR THE OH VALLEY. THE SUSTAINED ONSHORE ELY FLOW WL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST HALF OF DAY 1...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL MDT TO HVY PCPN AMTS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL SC AND COASTAL GA. THE RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH OVR THE COASTAL SE DURG THE SECOND HALF OF DAY 1 AS THE MID TO UPR LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES WWD AND DRIER AIR PRESSES SWWD TO THE SOUTH OF THE OH VALLEY UPR HIGH. LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW AT THIS TIME WL CONCENTRATE OVR THE FL PENINSULA WHERE SCT SHOWERS WL CONT THRU THE DAY 1 PERIOD. DAYS 2 AND 3... ...PLAINS/UPR MS VLY... MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE 00Z RUNS. THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND WEATHER WILL LOSE A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY...IN FACT ITS CLOSED CENTER...INTO CANADA LEAVING A REMNANT TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH DAY 3. ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL NEARLY STALL ACROSS THE PLAINS. THROUGH VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD...3 TO 5 ST DEV MOISTURE FLUX WILL FEED BANDS OF CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. GFS AND NAM ARE PAINTING A NEARLY MIRRORED PICTURE OF SEVERAL INCHES FROM THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEB. ECMWF HAD PLACED THE QPF FARTHER WEST...BUT ITS 00Z RUN HAS TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARDS THE OTHERS...THUS CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH DESPITE THE NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN TO WORK WITH. HAVE PLACED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL INTO DAYS 2 AND 3 GIVEN SATURATED GROUNDS AND LOW FF GUIDANCE VALUES THERE. ...GULF COAST/FL... A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS WILL DRIVE A DEEP AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST. NO PARTICULAR AREA TO PINPOINT IN THIS PATTER...SO A BROAD APPROACH WAS TAKEN TO ADD LIGHT QPF TO MUCH OF FLORIDA AND THE GULF COAST. ...NORTHWEST... AN UPPER WAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST ON DAY 2 WILL ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS THROUGH WA/WRN MT/NRN ID. MANY TIMING ISSUES HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT HPC PREFERS THE FASTER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE GIVEN PROGRESSIVE SATL EVIDENCE IN THE PACIFIC NOW. ONLY LIGHT QPF IS INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL HALF INCH ISOHYET THROUGH THE NRN WA CASCADES. ORAVEC/SOWKO GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 13/12Z 0.01 554886 554877 552869 547860 546853 544851 541845 539843 536835 533823 524802 521790 517779 506760 495743 484728 472713 462701 456695 451692 446688 442688 439691 436696 442703 453715 465730 475747 480756 484768 488781 491792 493799 493804 491813 489831 487842 485853 479866 457897 445911 439916 437919 434920 431924 429925 423930 420932 418936 415936 412939 401948 390957 376970 365980 352989 339996 333999 328003 319012 308021 303026 298031 293037 288040 277047 264055 258059 256063 252068 250073 251078 252085 256089 266096 270099 273099 278099 288100 291100 294098 308091 355064 362059 369057 379057 384057 388055 405059 413058 418064 421068 417075 411090 400101 391107 389113 393117 398122 399129 397135 395143 394154 397158 400162 404164 411161 423151 428147 432148 435152 437155 439157 441157 451150 455147 458144 463137 471126 482112 493095 502078 506071 508063 517044 522029 529008 536989 539978 542967 543962 545957 545951 547946 554886 0.01 518273 519268 518262 514252 511241 506232 502224 499218 496217 494218 491222 493235 490238 486238 482235 479231 469231 467231 462234 461237 462241 463245 468253 473260 479270 482278 485287 489297 492303 494304 497302 499299 502297 508291 513283 518273 0.01 341782 340776 338771 333766 326763 319762 312764 303768 297774 296782 296786 294789 290791 285792 278790 271787 264787 256791 252795 251798 254806 258807 253809 250812 250817 251821 257826 262829 269833 275834 283834 291834 294831 293828 288823 287819 290819 296821 304822 306824 308828 311839 315849 318852 322853 329854 334852 336849 338842 338831 339826 338821 338811 338803 338793 340787 341782 0.01 302871 302865 300858 297853 294850 287848 284847 282850 282861 283870 284883 285892 286898 288903 291905 294903 298893 300885 301875 302871 0.01 285990 286986 284984 278979 275975 271970 265965 260965 254964 252967 253976 255982 258988 263992 268993 277994 285991 285990 0.25 530882 531875 530870 527860 525854 521850 514843 510839 507838 504837 501841 499847 495858 491871 489878 486885 479895 471903 464910 455917 445923 437929 417944 401957 387969 377977 369984 354995 345001 342004 339007 334016 328021 314036 307043 299049 294056 288063 285071 284078 285082 288084 292082 295079 302073 308066 314059 320051 326049 332049 341047 351044 370043 380037 389033 406023 415018 423013 434008 444001 449998 453997 457997 462999 466004 467011 468020 467028 464039 460050 455061 452068 451074 453079 454083 455092 454100 453105 453109 456113 459113 466112 469110 473107 486090 493080 500067 509045 513029 516013 517998 520985 522970 525955 526947 527936 529921 529898 530882 0.25 505281 505277 503271 501265 498260 495254 492253 490256 488260 488265 490270 492276 495281 498283 501284 505281 0.25 331798 330791 328788 320782 317780 313779 308781 305785 304790 306794 309804 314816 319827 324834 327835 330834 332830 333823 333813 332801 331798 0.50 519915 519906 518898 517891 515884 511875 507872 503873 500877 495888 491896 487903 481911 472914 466920 458925 445933 430945 423950 415953 411953 406958 379978 367989 357998 343010 339015 336021 332028 331032 330035 331037 338039 346038 352037 362037 367038 370037 376032 389024 402017 418008 430999 443989 455980 463974 469971 474971 476974 477980 477994 478019 476030 473038 466061 464070 464078 465082 467088 470089 473090 475088 488077 496058 502039 508018 511007 512996 514981 515967 517945 519928 519915 0.50 329809 329802 327796 323792 320789 316787 311791 310797 312803 314809 316815 320820 323822 326822 328819 329813 329809 1.00 446966 446960 445956 441953 437953 433954 426957 416962 401965 392971 382979 366994 359002 351012 348016 347023 349030 351032 354032 368029 377024 387017 396012 407006 418998 426992 435984 439979 442974 446966 1.00 325808 325804 323801 322798 322797 320796 318796 316797 316799 316801 315805 316806 316808 317809 318811 320813 321814 323816 325816 325815 325811 325808 325808 1.50 437967 437963 436960 433959 424962 414968 407969 401968 396970 389976 383981 375989 364001 360005 358008 356013 355020 355023 357026 359026 366026 368025 384013 400004 415994 423988 431981 437967 2.00 424978 422970 418970 413972 408974 399975 391978 385982 380986 375992 367004 364008 360016 362019 365021 368022 374018 379013 384008 390004 403996 409992 415987 420983 424978 24HR QP VT 14/12Z 0.01 543871 540855 539847 537845 534839 533839 526838 518841 509845 499851 493856 487862 483863 487848 488839 489829 489821 488816 485812 483812 478814 469819 464823 459830 439858 426879 422887 418892 410905 406911 402919 398922 394930 385941 375954 368962 360970 350978 338987 327995 317003 313007 305012 301012 299010 293006 282003 277001 272996 268993 265993 265000 267008 272021 276026 277032 275034 270035 262035 255037 252039 252042 256045 261048 266050 271051 279052 286052 302052 311052 317053 322055 328059 333062 337064 341065 349067 359068 367068 372070 381076 384078 388077 392073 396068 398060 398049 393043 391038 390027 391017 395010 401006 407000 410994 413986 419974 422970 427965 438959 448954 457951 470947 478946 486948 488948 491951 497959 501964 504967 507972 508977 506985 504995 501001 498008 492011 476017 470021 465026 461033 459038 459042 461048 469052 472055 473059 477067 482072 486073 494072 499070 504067 508063 515056 520049 528034 531025 534016 538991 542972 545955 546942 546930 547919 546905 543871 0.01 541202 539195 535188 528179 527172 526168 523166 513166 507170 504177 503183 502186 500189 492179 486174 483179 483182 481190 479198 475202 466209 464215 463221 462226 460232 457236 458241 460247 462250 461254 460262 457266 455271 455275 462279 467282 471285 474291 477297 482302 488304 492304 498302 503300 507297 513290 525256 524254 523251 525247 526242 528238 529237 531234 533230 0.01 317811 317807 316805 312802 307798 298795 291793 282792 275791 266789 260788 254789 249792 243798 239805 237814 237817 239823 241828 244830 248831 252830 257829 261830 269832 277833 288828 292829 294833 298835 304833 313827 315824 317819 317811 0.01 317933 316927 314920 312908 311905 308899 303894 300888 298884 293874 292871 288869 284870 282872 280877 279882 278891 281912 284937 284943 282947 278954 278964 283972 288968 292967 298963 303960 303955 304949 306946 310943 313939 317933 0.01 277976 274973 272971 270971 269970 266968 263968 262969 261971 260972 260975 261978 261979 263981 265982 267983 267984 270983 273983 274982 275979 277976 0.25 533210 533205 531199 526193 523191 517188 514187 511189 514196 517200 521206 524210 526213 529214 533210 0.25 519269 520263 519258 516249 508235 499218 495212 488210 482210 476211 472214 470219 474222 477224 484228 487232 488236 488239 486242 484249 485253 489261 491268 501283 505285 509284 514279 518272 519269 0.25 525908 525903 523899 520898 517899 514900 511903 511904 509908 508909 508914 508919 508924 510928 512929 515930 518929 520926 522924 523922 524918 525913 525908 0.25 464902 465896 463891 460887 455883 449882 442891 439894 433899 429901 424906 416915 403930 388948 375963 368971 360979 346990 320020 317025 317031 319037 323041 332044 341046 354047 358049 366049 371049 375047 376041 376032 377024 379020 386010 397993 410974 416966 424960 432952 442944 449936 455927 458921 462911 464902 0.25 284808 284803 281800 277797 270794 265793 259793 251797 249800 248803 248810 250813 254813 262811 267810 273812 279812 284808 0.25 296909 295906 294904 293903 291902 291903 292907 294909 295910 296909 0.50 517263 512251 506236 498225 494219 491215 483213 479214 476217 478221 484223 491229 494233 498246 498252 496254 494258 495263 497269 501275 505277 511277 517263 0.50 458908 457903 454900 450899 447901 442904 427917 421918 414925 401938 375967 362980 349991 344998 337006 333013 329021 327026 326030 327034 330038 338041 346043 358041 365035 374020 380013 386003 395990 401981 407972 418959 433944 441937 447930 455917 458908 0.50 277801 276798 275798 272796 271796 268796 267796 265795 262796 260797 257798 255800 254801 254804 256806 257807 260807 263806 265806 266806 269806 271805 274805 277804 277801 1.00 509255 509254 507249 507248 505244 505243 503243 503248 504249 506253 506254 509256 509255 1.00 449915 447913 445914 443917 439919 437923 423932 418934 415936 408942 396950 384962 375971 353992 348997 343003 339011 337017 335026 337031 339034 343038 347039 352038 358034 363028 366022 371016 376010 381004 389992 398978 407966 428943 440930 444924 448918 449915 1.50 424942 417943 412945 402952 396955 391959 383966 366983 358991 350999 344008 342014 341021 342029 346034 351034 354032 359028 362022 368012 377005 384997 397977 404966 411957 424942 2.00 407957 404956 398958 392961 385967 379973 368984 358995 353002 348010 349027 352027 358023 360019 362014 367008 379999 385992 389986 399971 407957 3.00 393971 393967 390967 384972 379977 375982 371986 366992 363998 369997 375995 380990 385984 389980 393972 393971 24HR QP VT 15/12Z 0.01 508686 506682 504679 500678 491676 484677 477676 473668 470663 466659 463658 458659 455660 450665 446669 446673 447680 450693 450699 450706 449720 443731 438740 435747 434751 435755 436759 436768 434773 433783 430792 427802 426809 428817 429822 426827 422835 421839 418842 416843 412846 407851 401858 397864 394865 392870 387875 366904 361909 354917 345931 341937 339940 334940 330938 327938 323939 321943 303979 298986 294989 290986 288978 289971 292967 296965 304960 309955 312947 314937 315926 316915 316907 314900 310896 304892 301887 297885 288883 280895 276902 276908 277913 277923 277933 276942 274951 271954 267956 260956 257958 250971 249974 251975 253980 254985 257988 265990 275992 282996 284999 283002 280001 278999 275998 273000 273005 275007 279016 281022 282026 279032 276039 272048 270051 266050 257048 247049 238052 234054 234058 240063 247069 259076 267080 274084 283084 286084 291081 296078 302072 309067 313065 318064 325061 335061 354067 365068 371071 377071 386071 389068 389065 388057 386054 386047 385041 386038 398022 409010 415002 421993 430977 433967 434959 434952 442937 444930 442928 436927 437921 441909 442900 444886 444882 442879 438878 433879 431878 429875 429871 432866 437861 444856 454849 462846 475839 487832 495831 502831 506833 512836 516844 518848 521870 525873 528870 531865 533859 533850 533845 533837 532823 533816 532805 531793 529784 527779 522769 514762 507756 499751 489747 480751 476752 477750 482745 494728 499718 504707 507696 508686 0.01 518158 518152 515148 513145 510142 498132 493129 488126 484125 480126 475127 472128 469132 469136 474141 474146 471149 465151 462154 464161 469166 475168 482169 486170 495176 503187 507184 511175 518158 0.01 266789 265786 260788 253793 247801 243806 239813 242821 244827 247829 250828 255820 258812 261805 263797 266789 0.01 307014 306012 303011 301011 300011 297010 295011 295015 298017 298018 300018 303018 306017 306016 307014 0.25 474690 473688 471687 470688 467690 467691 466695 464698 465702 468702 471700 473697 474695 474691 474690 0.25 423922 423914 420909 414910 410914 396926 390934 388946 382953 376960 370965 362971 353978 348983 338997 331005 325012 321019 315026 301035 296040 294046 297049 307050 318049 329049 338047 358043 366038 374033 380027 386020 393013 399007 405999 410992 414980 417971 420958 420955 419951 416944 419937 421933 422927 423922 0.25 296896 295893 295892 292892 289893 288895 287898 287901 288904 288907 289911 290913 291914 292913 293910 293909 293906 294903 294902 294899 296896 296896 0.25 282969 281963 279963 276965 272967 268968 266968 260968 257970 255973 258975 261977 264978 270978 275977 277975 281972 282969 0.25 284068 283067 281065 280065 277064 275064 272064 269064 268065 267069 269071 269072 272074 273075 275076 277076 280075 283072 284068 0.50 413964 413954 411950 408949 404945 400946 398948 379966 360982 351991 343000 337011 329021 322030 318036 316038 313039 322040 338040 345038 350037 363029 372022 382014 399997 403991 406985 411972 413964 1.00 404966 401961 396962 392963 387967 382973 371982 361991 357995 353000 349017 347023 352023 359019 365015 376007 387998 395990 400983 403977 404966 1.50 397978 397973 396970 392970 389972 384977 379981 374986 369992 364997 363000 364003 373000 378996 383993 389989 394983 397978 $$