FXUS22 KWNC 191330
PMDDRK
US DROUGHT OUTLOOK DISCUSSION
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
 830 AM UTC THU 19 NOV 2009
 
SHORT-TERM DRYNESS HAS LED TO DROUGHT DEVELOPMENT IN
EAST-CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SINCE OCTOBER
1, THE RAINFALL DEFICIT AT MELBOURNE, FL IS NEARLY 6
INCHES. ALTHOUGH DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY EXPAND ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS, THE ONGOING EL
NINO STRONGLY FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION DURING THE
WINTER AND THUS IMPROVEMENT IN THE LONG-TERM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR FLORIDA IS HIGH.
DROUGHT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAS DECREASED IN THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, BUT SEVERE DROUGHT CONTINUES IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. DUE TO A LACK OF ANY FORECAST SIGNALS FOR WETTER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS AND A RELATIVELY DRY CLIMATOLOGY DURING THE
OUTLOOK PERIOD, DROUGHT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. PRECIPITATION
FOR THIS REGION TYPICALLY INCREASES LATER IN THE SPRING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR WISCONSIN IS LOW.
ADDITIONAL RELIEF FROM THE PROTRACTED DROUGHT AFFECTING PARTS
OF SOUTHERN TEXAS APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE WINTER. FORECASTS
FROM DECEMBER THROUGH THE END OF FEBRUARY FAVOR ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION, AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE EL NINO
CONDITIONS ALSO FAVORS ENHANCED PRECIPITATION DURING THE
OUTLOOK PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TEXAS IS HIGH.
RECENT SHORT-TERM DRYNESS HAS WORSENED THE DROUGHT IN THE
SOUTHWEST, ESPECIALLY IN ARIZONA. LITTLE OR NO CHANGE CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF NOVEMBER. EL NINO COMPOSITES
INDICATE A TILT IN THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. THE CPC SEASONAL FORECAST SHOWS
SLIGHTLY INCREASED ODDS FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
SOUTHERN ARIZONA BUT EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE, BELOW, OR NEAR
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REMINDER OF THE STATE. WITH
THESE CONSIDERATIONS, IMPROVEMENT IS MORE LIKELY IN SOUTHERN
ARIZONA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS MODERATE.
SINCE OCTOBER 13 WHEN A VERY STRONG STORM AFFECTED NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED
ACROSS THE STATE. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD, MOIST
ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF PRECIPITATION TO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. BY THE END OF NOVEMBER, ENHANCED RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A MJO EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE WESTERN PACIFIC. THIS MJO ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT THE
CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC AND CONTRIBUTE
TO WET CONDITIONS ALONG THE WEST COAST. LATER IN THE WINTER,
THE STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST. EL NINO COMPOSITES ALONG WITH THE CPC SEASONAL
OUTLOOK FAVOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION DURING DECEMBER 
FEBRUARY. THEREFORE, IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST IN CALIFORNIA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR CALIFORNIA IS HIGH.
ALTHOUGH THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST IS QUITE WET ACROSS CENTRAL
WASHINGTON, THE CPC SEASONAL FORECAST INDICATES HIGHER ODDS FOR
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION. DROUGHT PERSISTENCE AND DEVELOPMENT
IS FORECAST IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR WASHINGTON IS LOW.
HAWAII IS FORECAST TO RECEIVE BELOW-MEDIAN RAINFALL DURING
THE UPCOMING WINTER, CONSISTENT WITH AN ONGOING EL NINO. DRIER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN EXISTING SEVERE TO EXTREME
DROUGHT AND LIKELY RESULT IN DROUGHT EXPANSION ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE STATE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR HAWAII IS MODERATE.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH, DAVID MISKUS
 
 
 
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