FXUS25 KWNC 281230
PMDDRO
US DROUGHT MONITOR DISCUSSION
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
 830 AM EST THU 28 AUG 2008
 
NATIONAL DROUGHT SUMMARY – AUGUST 26, 2008
THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC:  PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE
BROUGHT GENERALLY DRIER-THAN-AVERAGE CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF
THE REGION DURING THE PAST WEEK. THIS CONTINUED A NEAR-TERM
PATTERN OF BELOW-AVERAGE RAINFALL AND LED TO A NORTHWARD
EXPANSION OF D0 DRYNESS IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA, EASTERN MARYLAND,
DELAWARE AND SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MODERATE /D1A/
DROUGHT IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA. ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION TOTALS
OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS WERE GENERALLY LESS THAN 50 PERCENT OF
AVERAGE AND USGS 7 TO 28-DAY STREAMFLOWS WELL BELOW THE 20TH
PERCENTILE REFLECT THE ANOMALOUSLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALSO DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
WITHIN A GROWING AREA OF ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ CONDITIONS. ONE
TO THREE-MONTH PRECIPITATION TOTALS LESS THAN 70 PERCENT OF
AVERAGE AND DETERIORATING STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS REFLECT THE
WORSENING CONDITIONS.
MIDWEST:  A LACK OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BOOSTED 30 TO 45-DAY
PRECIPITATION DEFICITS IN NORTHERN INDIANA, CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OHIO, NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF WEST
VIRGINIA AND LED TO AN EXPANSION OF D0 DRYNESS ACROSS THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS REMAIN GOOD DUE TO
GENERALLY WETTER-THAN-AVERAGE CONDITIONS DURING THE PAST YEAR,
WITH 30- TO 45-DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS LESS THAN 50 PERCENT OF
AVERAGE ACROSS THIS REGION, EMERGING IMPACTS INCLUDED STRESSED
CROPS, DORMANT LAWNS AND PREMATURE CHANGE IN LEAF COLOR.
SHORT-TERM PRECIPITATION DEFICITS /AS MUCH AS 6 INCHES OVER
THE PAST 60 DAYS/ ALSO CONTINUED TO GROW ACROSS LARGE PARTS OF
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THIRTY-DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS LESS
THAN 25 PERCENT OF AVERAGE AND 7 TO 28-DAY USGS STREAMFLOW
BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE LED TO AN EXPANSION OF D0 AND D1A
CONDITIONS. REFLECTING THE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS, AN AREA OF
MODERATE /D1A/ DROUGHT WAS ESTABLISHED IN NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN
AND ALONG THE BORDER OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN AND
THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. AREAS AFFECTED BY MODERATE /D1A/
DROUGHT ALSO EXPANDED SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE TWIN CITIES AND
IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA IN THE AREA OF THE HEADWATERS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SOUTHEAST:  HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TROPICAL STORM FAY AND ITS
REMNANTS BROUGHT EXTENSIVE DROUGHT RELIEF TO THE REGION. FAY
MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND EVENTUALLY
STALLED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVED EASTWARD IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 10 INCHES
WERE WIDESPREAD IN NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA,
AND AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 5 INCHES COVERED LARGE PARTS OF
ALABAMA AND EAST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. AS THE REMNANTS OF FAY
MOVED NORTHEASTWARD HEAVY RAINS FELL THROUGHOUT NORTHERN
GEORGIA, EASTERN TENNESSEE AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. ONE
AND TWO-CATEGORY IMPROVEMENTS LEFT NORTHERN FLORIDA, SOUTHERN
AND COASTAL COUNTIES OF GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA FREE OF
DROUGHT AND ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODERATE /D1H/ AND SEVERE
/D2H/ HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT PERSISTED FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA TO
CENTRAL GEORGIA, WHILE EXTREME DROUGHT /D3H/ WAS CONFINED TO
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF GEORGIA, EASTERN TENNESSEE AND THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS. EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT /D4AH/ IMPROVED TO
D3H /EXTREME/ IN AREAS WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS WERE GENERALLY
GREATER THAN 5 INCHES IN THE CAROLINAS. IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NEIGHBORING AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
DROUGHT-FREE CONDITIONS WERE EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS
AN AREA WHERE SHORT- AND LONG-TERM CONDITIONS ARE NEAR NORMAL.
IN COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BELOW-AVERAGE
RAINFALL ADDED TO 90-DAY PRECIPITATION DEFICITS AND MODERATE
/D1AH/ AND SEVERE /D2AH/ DROUGHT WERE PULLED EASTWARD TO THE
COAST TO REFLECT THE WORSENING SEVERITY.
THE DELTA: PRECIPITATION FROM TD FAY BROUGHT A 1-CATEGORY
IMPROVEMENT TO EASTERN LOUISIANA AND BORDERING AREAS OF
MISSISSIPPI WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 3 INCHES WERE
WIDESPREAD. IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS WERE
GREATER THAN 4 INCHES, MODERATE /D1H/ DROUGHT ENDED AND AREAS
DELINEATED BY ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ CONDITIONS WERE CONFINED
TO NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE STATE. A LACK OF RAINFALL IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS OF LOUISIANA LED TO A
SMALL SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF MODERATE DROUGHT, AND ABNORMALLY
DRY /D0/ CONDITIONS EXPANDED SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST IN
EASTERN CAMERON AND VERMILION COUNTIES.
THE PLAINS:  WIDESPREAD RAINFALL /TOTALS EXCEEDING 3 INCHES
WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 7 INCHES/ FELL IN COASTAL AREAS
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS, RESULTING IN 1- AND 2-CATEGORY
IMPROVEMENTS. PARTS OF HOUSTON’S HARRIS COUNTY RECEIVED
MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION ON 11 STRAIGHT DAYS THROUGH AUGUST
23, AND DROUGHT-FREE CONDITIONS WERE ESTABLISHED FROM COASTAL
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA TO GALVESTON BAY WHERE TOTALS DURING THE
PAST WEEK GENERALLY EXCEEDED 7 INCHES. IN NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AND SIMILAR AMOUNTS DURING
THE PREVIOUS WEEK LED TO AN END TO ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A REDUCTION FROM D1H TO D0 CONDITIONS FROM NEAR WACO TO
THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH AREA AND NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE BRAZOS
RIVER. IN SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS, EXTREME /D3H/ DROUGHT PERSISTED
IN AUSTIN AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES WHERE SUMMER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY LESS THAN 50 PERCENT OF AVERAGE. A
REDUCTION FROM D3H TO D2H OCCURRED SOUTH OF THIS AREA WHERE
30-DAY TOTALS HAVE GENERALLY EXCEEDED 5 INCHES. A REDUCTION
FROM D3H TO D2H DROUGHT OCCURRED IN SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS FROM
THE RIO GRANDE TO THE SAN ANTONIO AREA WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DURING THE PAST WEEK WERE GENERALLY GREATER THAN 2 INCHES AND
30-DAY TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WERE WIDESPREAD.
SHORT-TERM CONDITIONS DETERIORATED IN PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NEBRASKA, RESULTING IN THE EXPANSION OF ABNORMAL DRYNESS /D0/
IN NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE
30-DAY TOTALS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 50 PERCENT AND 60-DAY TOTALS
LESS THAN 70 PERCENT OF AVERAGE. AREAL COVERAGE OF ABNORMALLY
DRY CONDITIONS ALSO EXPANDED IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA,
EASTERN NEBRASKA, AND WESTERN IOWA, AND AN AREA OF MODERATE
/D1A/ DROUGHT WAS INTRODUCED IN NEBRASKA WHERE 30-DAY TOTALS
WERE GENERALLY LESS THAN 25 PERCENT OF AVERAGE AND WIDESPREAD
CROP LOSSES WERE REPORTED.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES IN NORTH DAKOTA LED
TO A 1-CATEGORY REDUCTION OF SEVERE /D2H/ AND MODERATE /D1H/
DROUGHT IN CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE AND A REDUCTION FROM
EXTREME /D3H/ TO SEVERE /D2H/ IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE WEST:  CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY WARMER AND
DRIER-THAN-AVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM COASTAL OREGON AND WASHINGTON
TO NORTHWESTERN MONTANA WHERE PRECIPITATION WAS GENERALLY
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AND TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW
AVERAGE. GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF MONSOON-RELATED
PRECIPITATION FELL IN ARIZONA, NEW MEXICO, AND
COLORADO. CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL PARTS OF THE WEST REMAINED
UNCHANGED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COASTAL NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA,
WHERE D2A AND D1A EXPANDED NORTHWARD TO COVER MUCH OF HUMBOLDT
COUNTY. REPORTED IMPACTS INCLUDE A LOSS OF 60-65 PERCENT OF
RANGELAND PRODUCTION CAPACITY DUE TO THE LACK OF RAIN DURING
THE PAST SIX MONTHS.
HAWAII, ALASKA AND PUERTO RICO:  IN HAWAII, ON THE ISLAND OF
KAUAI, D1AH CONDITIONS RETURNED TO NORTHEAST AREAS OF THE ISLAND
AND REFLECT CONTINUING STRESS TO PASTURES AND NON-IRRIGATED
CROPS IN THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE REMAINED
STATUS QUO. THERE WAS NO CHANGE TO DROUGHT AND ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS IN PUERTO RICO WHERE RAINFALL PATTERNS WERE MORE
CONSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD.
LOOKING AHEAD:  DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS /THROUGH SEPTEMBER 1/
AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM FAY EXIT THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S., HURRICANE GUSTAV, WHICH DEVELOPED IN THE CARIBBEAN AND
FIRST MADE LANDFALL IN HAITI ON THE 26TH, IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. DEPENDING ON
ITS SPEED AND TRACK, LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST
IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY ABSENT IN
THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN THE NORTHEAST, FOLLOWING
RAINFALL FROM THE REMNANTS OF FAY EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THE
PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION,
THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO END WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND
FAIR WEATHER. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 1 INCH. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE IN
THE WEST.
THE CPC 6-10 DAY FORECAST /SEPTEMBER 2-6/ CALLS FOR A
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WHILE A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE NATION. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
BELOW-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. TO
THE NORTHEAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST AIR INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES, SOUTHWEST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WILL INCREASE CHANCES
OF AVERAGE TO WETTER-THAN-AVERAGE CONDITIONS IN THOSE REGIONS.
AUTHOR:  JAY LAWRIMORE, NOAA’S NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER
 
 
 
DROUGHT INTENSITY CATEGORIES...
D0 ABNORMALLY DRY...
D1 MODERATE DROUGHT...
D2 SEVERE DROUGHT...
D3 EXTREME DROUGHT...
D4 EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT
 
DROUGHT TYPES...
USED ONLY WHEN IMPACTS DIFFER...
A AGRICULTURAL...
H HYDROLOGIC.
 
 
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