FXUS61 KCLE 242318
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
718 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES 
WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI 
VALLEY BY MONDAY AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER THIS 
EVENING FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. CALLED IT "CLEARING" FOR THE
NE OH/NW PA COUNTIES...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
EARLIER DISCUSSION...
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND IMPACT AND HAVE GONE WITH FROST AND
FREEZE HEADLINES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. IT APPEARS THAT CLEARING
WILL RAPIDLY OCCUR THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD ALSO LESSEN. IF
SPEEDS STAY MORE THAN 5 OR 6 MPH OVERNIGHT FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE
HARD TO ACHIEVE. IF FREEZING TEMPS DO OCCUR IT WILL BE ONE OF THE
LATEST FREEZES EVER AT ALL OF THE CLIMATE SITES. TEMPS REMAIN IN
THE 40S MOST AREAS AND SHOULD DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. SOME
INDICATION THAT HIGH CLOUDS COULD SPILL INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THIS COULD BE A LITTLE
OVERDONE SO HAVE TAKEN THE FROST HEADLINE ALL THE WAY TO KTOL AND
KFDY. LATEST HRRR HAS SURFACE TEMPS TO 34 DEGREES BY 04Z OVER MOST
OF INLAND NE OH AND NW PA. IF THAT OCCURS FROST IS LIKELY BY EARLY
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
AREA WILL REMAIN COOL WITH ONLY VERY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
WILL LIKELY NEED MORE FROST HEADLINES SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE EAST.
EXPECT TEMPS TO STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 60 ON SATURDAY AND OUT OF
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURE MAY GET TO 70 ON
MONDAY BUT THAT WILL STILL BELOW NORMAL. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
A SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS MONDAY. A WARM FRONT FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND HAVE PUT
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP IN THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT. THINK DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL IN THE EAST TILL AFTER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
GIVEN A LOOK AT UPSTREAM SATELLITE TODAY SKIES SHOULD BE ALMOST
COMPLETELY CLEAR ON SATURDAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. HAVE TRENDED TO COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY AND 
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. IN THE WARM AIR MASS 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THERE COULD BE SOME POP UP SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS...CONTINUING THE 20 POPS. OTHERWISE A WARMING TREND 
WITH HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY HPC.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST AT THIS TIME WITH CLEAR SKIES WEST
HALF AND CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED IN THE EAST HALF. CLOUDS ARE
DIURNAL IN NATURE AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. WINDS MAY
TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO 10 KNOTS FROM CLEVELAND TO
MANSFIELD WEST AND TO 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE EAST OF THAT LINE
DURING THE DAY. MAINLY CIRRUS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...VFR.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
DROPPING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE EXTREME WEST END OF THE 
LAKE AS THE HIGH IS BUILDING IN. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE 
HEADLINES. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THAT THE WAVES COULD BE NEAR SMALL 
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST 
FLOW...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. 
OTHERWISE NOT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE IN A MAINLY SOUTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR 
     OHZ003-006>012-017>019-027-028-036-089.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR 
     OHZ013-014-020>023-029>033-037-038-047.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR 
     PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR 
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LEZ144-145.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KIELTYKA