FXUS61 KCLE 082354
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
654 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH LATE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN IN THE 10
TO 15 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM DECOUPLING AND SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP
FOG FROM DEVELOPING AT MOST LOCATIONS. THERE WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS
OF MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATE IN THE
DAY BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. A
FEW LOCATIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN MAKE A RUN AT RECORD LEVELS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION TOWARD TUESDAY
MORNING WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG AND IN ITS WAKE. WINDS
MAY ACTUALLY SWING AROUND TO THE NORTH BEFORE THE COOLER AIR
ARRIVES SO IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO CALL A FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME. IN
ANY EVENT THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE BACK VERY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE OHIO INTO NW PA WHERE THE BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL EXIST INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROTECT THE AREA FROM AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE/TROPICAL LOW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
GRADUALLY WARMING IS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO LOOK SIMILAR AND ALL HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE 
MOVEMENT OF THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE RIDGE ACTUALLY 
BUILDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE 
SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS IN TURN SLOWS DOWN THE NEXT FRONT AND SEEMS 
REASONABLE. AIRMASS WILL WARM UP SLOWER THAN THE CURRENT ONE AS THE 
SOUTH FLOW WILL TAKE UNTIL THE WEEKEND TO GET GOING...BUT WITH THE 
EXCEPTION OF A FEW NIGHTS NEAR NORMAL...TEMPERATURES IN GENERAL WILL 
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WILL 
DELAY THE NEXT FRONT UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY 11/15.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY CIRRUS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWED BY MORE DENSE CIRRUS FOR MONDAY. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
FOG WITH SOME INCREASING WIND. AT THIS TIME I DON'T THINK THE FOG
WILL BE AS DENSE AS LAST NIGHT NEAR TOL BECAUSE OF SOME WIND
OVERNIGHT...THE SREF MODEL DISAGREES WITH THIS. MAINLY AREAS OF
MVFR BR BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS.  A COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY
EVENING WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILING MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. 
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK FRONT MAY HAVE DISSIPATED. WITH THE GRADIENT BEING LIGHT THE 
WIND FIELD OVER THE LAKE IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY ONSHORE FLOW. THE 
SOUTH FLOW WILL PICK UP OVERNIGHT. WITH THE AIRMASS SO WARM...THE 
BEST WIND WILL NOT MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE. NONETHELESS MONDAY 
WILL BE BREEZIER AND MORE CHOPPY THAN TODAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS 
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND THE FLOW SHOULD VEER TO THE NORTH BY 
TUESDAY. WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE 
GREAT LAKES... WOULD EXPECT THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASE 
ENOUGH FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE 
WIND WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH PASSES 
OVERHEAD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KOSARIK