FXUS61 KCLE 140432
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1132 PM EST MON FEB 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK 
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL 
SLIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS OHIO ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD 
OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MADE ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF POPS MOVING INTO
WESTERN AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE THE OVERALL TREND OF
SOME LIGHT SNOW SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUES TO BE REASONABLE. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO TEMPS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE 
PLAINS WITH MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD 
OF THIS FEATURE. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL 
WEAKEN AS IT SLIDES NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY 
BRINGING A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW TO MOST OF NORTHERN OHIO/NW 
PENNSYLVANIA. IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS YET FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO 
MOISTEN ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND. UPSTREAM RADARS 
CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIPITATION EVAPORATING AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE DRY 
AIRMASS OVERHEAD. EVENTUALLY THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND 
LIGHT ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL WIN OUT WITH SNOW OVERSPREADING THE 
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY 
NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES...AND CLOSER 
TO DAWN IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES. MODELS DO SHOW SOME ENHANCEMENT 
OVER CENTRAL OHIO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT 
PASSES SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS 
APPROACHES. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HINTING AT AN ENHANCED AREA OF 
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE LOW LEVEL FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR DAYTON 
TO AKRON AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA FOR HIGHER 
ACCUMULATIONS. IN GENERAL EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH NOON ON 
TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM NEAR 2 INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO 
AROUND A HALF INCH IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL 
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY POSSIBLY 
MIX WITH RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 30S...ESPECIALLY FOR 
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...SOUTH OF A MANSFIELD TO 
YOUNGSTOWN LINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN ON TUESDAY EVENING AS DEEP MOISTURE EXITS 
TO THE EAST AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. EXPECTING A SLOW 
CLEARING TREND FOR LOW CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY...ONLY TO REPLACED BY 
HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. 
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL EVOLVE OUT OF THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT...SWINGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE 
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS EXTREME NW
OHIO OR SE MICHIGAN AND MAY EVEN FAVOR A TRACK FURTHER TO THE
NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PHASES WITH ENERGY DROPPING
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AFFECTING THE REGION DURING THE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THURSDAY TIME FRAME AND HAVE RAISED POPS
FURTHER. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW MORE
WARM AIR TO BE PULLED INTO NORTHERN OHIO AND AM EM EXPECTING
PRIMARILY A RAIN EVENT...AT LEAST UNTIL THE COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. A QUICK HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH NOT MUCH HELP 
COMING FROM THE MODELS. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH SPLIT FLOW 
CONTINUING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY 
FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE 
SNOWBELT. WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR 
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS. PAST FRIDAY THERE WILL BE SOME SHORTWAVES COMING 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE SOME ENERGY 
WORKS ACROSS THE SOUTH. AGAIN THOUGH MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE 
DETAILS. WITH THIS PATTERN TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE 
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT. SNOW IS ALREADY
REACHING THE SURFACE ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF NW
OHIO AS OF 0430Z. THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD
AND WILL PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS AS IT BEGINS. AS THE SNOW PERSISTS
AND HELPS TO MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP. THESE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING. 
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY. NON VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN THURSDAY...LINGERING ACROSS NE OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
FLOW BACKING TO SW SHOULD ALLOW SCA TO END FOR REST OF THE LAKE 
TONIGHT. FLOW SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. A LOW IS 
EXPECTED TO MOVE NE ACROSS LOWER MI THU AND NE OF LHUR THU NIGHT 
PULLING A TRAILING COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE WITH SMALL CRAFT 
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRI THEN DIMINISH 
FRI NIGHT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...ABE
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...ADAMS