FXUS61 KCLE 050813
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
413 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL SEE
MORE SUNSHINE THAN YESTERDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLEARING HAS MADE SOME PROGRESS EARLY THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS SAG
SOUTH. PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR INLAND FROM THE LAKE EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG OF ANY CONSEQUENCE
ACROSS NW OHIO AND WILL MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST THERE. IT WILL
BE SOME 5 DEGREES OR SO WARMER TODAY...ALMOST BEGINNING TO FEEL
LIKE JULY. MAX TEMP GUIDANCE MIGHT BE A DEGREE OR TWO TOO WARM
BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY. A LAKE BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ONLY REAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST IS ANOTHER DEEPENING OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA. UPPER TROUGH/LOW PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE BY TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOT ADVERTISING MUCH OF A COLD FRONT
WITH THE SYSTEM BUT MORE OFTEN THAN NOT WITH THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM
WE END UP SEEING A PRETTY DISTINCT SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH WHICH IS
MOST NOTICEABLE ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT
MAINLY INLAND EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS NW PA BUT WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW AS CHANCES/COVERAGE WOULD BE LOW. GFS GETS CONTAMINATED WITH
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ALREADY BY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE UP A CATEGORY OR TWO AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
ON MONDAY (TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS) AND THEN DROP BACK AGAIN
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. MOST OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE QUIET. MODELS...ESPECIALLY GFS...HAVING DIFFICULTY
WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND HAVE NO FAITH IN ANY PRECIP...MAYBE
SOME WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS...LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SEEMS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH READINGS CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SATURDAY WILL BE A TAD COOLER
WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLEARING IS ALREADY WORKING INTO NW OH. ALREADY SEEING SOME IFR
CONDITIONS UPSTREAM SO HAVE ADDED SOME IFR FOG TO WESTERN TAF
SITES. FURTHER E...ENOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT TO KEEP
THINGS FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE S
TODAY AND AS THIS HAPPENS WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY. BY THE END
OF THE DAY THERE SHOULD JUST BE A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
CU IS POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. MID AND HIGH LEVELS
CIGS ALSO A GOOD BET FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...ASIDE FROM SOME EARLY MORNING FOG EACH MORNING...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LAKE TODAY KEEPING 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT VERY WEAK.  AS A RESULT...WINDS ON THE LAKE 
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.  A GENERAL 
WEST TO SOUTHWEST LIGHT FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK MONDAY AND 
THEN PERSIST MOST OF THE DAY.  A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY WILL 
EVENTUALLY CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME NW BUT EVEN THEN WINDS WILL 
GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TUESDAY 
WITH EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. AN EASTERLY GRADIENT WILL 
THEN BE MAINTAINED INTO FRIDAY WHEN WINDS WILL TAKE ON A SOUTHERNLY 
COMPONENT AGAIN. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. 
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA