FXUS61 KILN 050825
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
425 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS KENTUCKY TODAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. APPEARS THAT THE MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS WERE FINALLY
STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WHICH WOULD JUST LEAVE SOME LIGHT
SCATTERED ACTIVITY. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME REDEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. BUT DO NOT EXPECT
THIS TO BE TOO SIGNIFICANT. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY
AROUND MIDDAY. 
LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PERSISTENT WITH CLEARING WORKING IN FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. GUIDANCE COMPROMISE DID NOT
LOOK TOO BAD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY GENERATE
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. BUT ANYTHING THAT DOES
OCCUR SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY SHOULD
STAY WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION AS WELL.
DID NOT VARY TOO MUCH FROM GUIDANCE HIGHS. BUT LEANED TOWARDS
WARMER NUMBERS FOR LOWS. 
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z GFS SEEMS TO HAVE SOME FEEDBACK PROBLEMS WHICH BRING A SYSTEM
THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE LEAST LIKELY
SOLUTION. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND
CANADIAN HEMISPHERIC. THESE MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME INCREASING
DISCREPANCIES IN REGARDS TO A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS POINT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY LOOK
LIKE THEY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL EXPERIENCE A WARMING TREND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
BUT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME DROP OFF ON SATURDAY DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT SPEED OF THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING EAST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION...MAINLY THE
CINCINNATI TAF SITES...FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THOUGH THE RAIN
HAS BROKEN UP AND BECOME MORE SHOWERY...IT HAS LEFT MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES IN ITS WAKE FOR PRETTY MUCH THE WHOLE REGION.
DEGRADED AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT
KCVG/KLUK...WHERE TEMPO GROUPS FOR IFR WILL COME INTO
EFFECT...AS UPSTREAM CONDITIONS AND MODEL FORECASTS SUPPORT
FURTHER DEGRADING OF CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. SHOWERS AND MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY HANG AROUND AT CINCINNATI FOR A
WHILE AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
BY AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...BUT THIS IS CURRENTLY TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE
CONFIDENCE IN.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HATZOS