FXUS61 KILN 140551
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1251 AM EST TUE FEB 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL MAINLY BE SNOW...WITH RAIN
MIXING IN DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN SOME LOCATIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL BRING RAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. INCREASING WARM...MOIST
ASCENT WILL SPREAD SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. STILL LOOKS LIKE AN
INCH OR LESS OF SNOW TOWARD SUNRISE. SNOW MAY CAUSE ISSUES WITH
THE MORNING COMMUTE AND HAVE THUS CONTINUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED. AS THE AXIS OF THE WEAKENING TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH BEFORE
ENDING BY EVENING. RAIN WILL MIX IN AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70.
AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.
UNDER PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE 40S. 
A MORE VIGOROUS LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PROBABLY BRINGING ILN A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. RATHER COPIOUS MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACCOMPANYING THE LOW WILL RESULT IN A RAIN EVENT. WENT WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR RAIN MOVING IN LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING IN SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES THEN REACHING THE ENTIRE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO MOVE 
THRU THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE LKLY POPS
EARLY ON THURSDAY AND THEN END FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY 
INTO THE EVENING.  BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES EXPECT ALL RAIN WITH 
ILN/S AREA BEING ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THERE MAY BE A 
BRIEF TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW PRIOR TO ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT. 
THE OHIO VALLEY LOOKS TO BE IN CONFLUENT WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW 
BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAMS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. 
NUMERICAL MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT DETAILS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF 
A MID LEVEL TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND. MOISTURE LOOKS 
TO BE LIMITED WITH MAIN STORM SYSTEM TO OUR SE. DUE TO THE LIMITED 
MOISTURE AND THE FACT THAT THE AFFECT WL LKLY BE SOUTH AND EAST OF 
ILN/S FA...HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FCST THRU THE WEEKEND.    
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND A WARMING TREND.
TEMPS TO START OUT ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND THEN TRANSITION TO NEAR
NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. ONSET OF THE PCPN
AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MIGHT BE AN HOUR OR SO SLOWER. 
H5 TROF IS STILL FCST TO SWING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...REACHING
CNTRL INDIANA BY 12Z. AHEAD OF THE TROF...SNOW WILL PICK UP IN THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DROP TO IFR. EVEN AT THIS
LATE TIME...MODELS ARE SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON HOW MUCH
WARM AIR WILL WORK INTO THE SYSTEM THIS AFTN. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING MORE SNOW THAN RAIN...WHILE THE NAM CHANGES THE SNOW
TO RAIN BY 18Z IN THE SRN TAFS. KEPT THE RAIN CHANGEOVER AT
CVG/LUK AND A MIX AT ILN...BUT KEPT THE PCPN ALL SNOW AT THE NRN
TAFS.
PCPN WILL LIGHTEN AND GRADUALLY END BETWEEN 21-00Z. VSBYS WILL
IMPROVE...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN IFR. CIGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR AFTER
00Z AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES