FXUS61 KOKX 242119 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 519 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING WILL HAVE A LOW DEVELOP ALONG IT. THE LOW DEEPENS ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SATURDAY AND WEAKENS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH BY MID WEEK...MOVING BRIEFLY TO THE NORTH...THEN DROPPING BACK TO THE SOUTH BY LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING FARTHER EAST OF THE REGION. A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHER PVA ALOFT KEEPING SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE AND KEEP MORE MIXING CONDITIONS IN PLACE. A SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MAV/MET BLEND WAS USED FOR LOWS WHICH WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S. THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE ATLANTIC FACING BEACHES OF LONG ISLAND. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY WHILE DEEPENING WITH A DIP IN THE JET STREAM MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION. A MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY IS IN STORE ALONG WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN WITH THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND COLD POOL ALOFT. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS STARTS TO DEEPEN IN THE GULF OF MAINE. LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 40-50 KT DEVELOPS NEAR 925 MB AND WITH EXPECTATION OF GOOD MIXING THE MAX GUST POTENTIAL COULD REACH 40-45 KT. THIS IS MOST PRONOUNCED WITH THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM BUFKIT KEEPING IT MORE IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE. INCREASED WIND GUSTS A GOOD 10 KT ABOVE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND IS A FEW KTS BELOW CRITERIA BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME SITES COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE SATURDAY...PROBABLY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOWN BY MUCAPE OF ALMOST 100 J/KG. THEREFORE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND WITH THE MUCH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT...HENCE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. A MAV/MET/NAM12 BLEND USED FOR HIGHS BUT ADJUSTED DOWNWARD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 IN URBAN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...ADVECTIONS DECREASE IN EFFICIENCY WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW STACKING AND SURFACE LOW IN GULF OF MAINE HALTING IN FURTHER DEEPENING...LOSING STRUCTURE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LIGHTEN. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO MATERIALIZE WITH POPS GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. COLDER NIGHT THAN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MAV/MET BLEND USED ONCE AGAIN. LOWS FORECAST INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER CLOSED LOW OPENS...EVENTUALLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS...WITH IT/S AXIS REMAINING TO THE WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. A WARM FRONT THEN APPROACHES TUESDAY FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. BY MID WEEK...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON HANDLING OF SFC FEATURES WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES NOTED ALOFT. WILL FOLLOW WPC WITH THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...WHICH LEANS TOWARD ECMWF. IT DOES APPEAR THAT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COULD RIDE ALONG THE FRONT...IN THE NW TO SE UPPER FLOW AS THE AXIS REMAINS TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER...NOT TOO SURE HOW FAR NORTH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE...BUT WILL NEED TO INTRODUCE POPS LATE TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. WEAK LOW ON THE FRONT MOVES EAST WED AS THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH. VORTICITY ADVECTION RIDES ALONG THE NW/SE UPPER FLOW...WITH POTENTIAL HIGHER COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY TO THE NORTH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT MOVES EAST BY FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. AS SUCH...AT LEAST MINIMAL POPS WARRANTED WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPS STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AS COLD POOL SLOWLY LOSES IT/S GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THEN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS OF 50S AT NIGHT AND 70S DURING THE DAY WILL SLOWLY WARM UP BY LATE WEEK AS RIDGE AXIS MAKES EASTWARD PROGRESS. TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...OR AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER/MID 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH FACING SHORES LOOKS REASONABLE PER WPC/EC MOS LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRES NEAR CAPE COD WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GULF OF ME TNGT AND SAT. NW WINDS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN WITH SUSTAINED AROUND 20 KT. RAIN CONTINUES TO EXPAND NWD UP THE NJ COAST INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY...SO THE CITY TERMINALS WILL RECEIVE A STEADY -RA INTO THE EVE. WINDS WILL LIKELY DROP A LITTLE AS THE RAIN TRACKS THRU THE AREA. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 KT TNGT...WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS TO 30. GUSTS MAY ONLY BE OCNL HOWEVER SO SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS INDICATED IN TAFS. MVFR CONTINUES WITH -RA. SUSTAINED NW WINDS NEAR 25 KT SAT. PEAK GUSTS MAY EXCEED 35 KT. CIGS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT ABV MVFR LVLS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GS IN SHRA SAT WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT. ALTHOUGH TOPS WILL BE BLW 20K FT...ISOLD LIGHTNING POSSIBLE. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: -RA MAY PERSIST TIL 23-00Z. KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VSBY MAY BE CLOSER TO 5-6SM IF STEADIEST -RA REMAINS W OF THE ARPT. -RA MAY PERSIST TIL 23-00Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: VSBY MAY BE CLOSER TO 5-6SM IF STEADIEST -RA REMAINS W OF THE ARPT. -RA MAY PERSIST TIL 23-00Z. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: -RA MAY PERSIST TIL 00Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THRU 00Z. VSBY MAY BE CLOSER TO 5-6SM IF STEADIEST -RA REMAINS W OF THE ARPT. -RA MAY PERSIST TIL 00Z. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDITIONS MAY DROP BLW FCST LVLS IF -RA FIELD EXPANDS FURTHER E THAN EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .SAT AFTN...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR. SHOWERS. NW GUSTS AROUND 35 KT. .SUN...VFR. CHC SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MRNG. NW GUSTS 30-35KT. FCST MAY CHANGE IF DEPARTURE OF STORM SLOWS. .MON...VFR. .TUE-WED...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE INVOF A WARM FRONT. && .MARINE... FOG SHOULD BE BREAKING UP WITH VSBY IMPROVEMENT AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST. NEXT ISSUE IS WINDS...SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT AND GALES ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW DEEPENING IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THE WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THAT LOW WEAKENS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE FOR THE SHORT TERM THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. GUSTY NW FLOW BACKS IN TIME TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AS SPEEDS DIMINISH. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS TUE AND WED WITH SOUTH TO EAST WINDS PREVAILING THIS TIME FRAME. ROUGH OCEAN SEAS PER WAVE WATCH III EARLY SUNDAY WILL SUBSIDE AS THE STORM DEPARTS. && .HYDROLOGY... ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE AROUND 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NO FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335- 338-340-345-350-353-355. GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ330- 335-338-340-345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM/PW NEAR TERM...JM SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...JMC MARINE...JM/PW HYDROLOGY...JM/PW